CFA L2 Alternative Investments Flashcards
(152 cards)
Fundamental analysis vs technical analysis
Fundamental analysis focuses on financial statements and economic indicators to assess an asset’s intrinsic value, making it more suitable for long-term investment decisions. Alternatively, technical analysis examines share price movements and trends to identify investment opportunities.
Tools used in fundamental analysis to predict supply and demand shocks:
- Announcements
- Component analysis: Different products that make up the commodity class are the components of that commodity. Analysis of demand and supply forecasts of components aid the forecasts for the aggregate.
- Timing issues: Incorporating any seasonality and previously observed logistical issues can refine estimates of demand/supply.
- Macroeconomic indicators
Commodity sectors
- Energy: Crude oil, natural gas, and refined products.
- Industrial metals
- Grains
- Livestock
- Pecious metals: gold, silver, and platinum
- Softs (cash crops): coffee, sugar, cocoa, and cotton
Crude oil/petroleum
A natural liquid prodcut found under the ground. Light oil (low viscosity) and sweet oil (low sulfur content) are less costly to refine and, therefore, sell at a premium relative to heavier or higher sulfur crude oils. Crude oil can be stored indefinitely by keeping it in the ground and is also stored in tanks and aboard tanker ships and is cheap to ship. Many countries store large amounts of crude oil as strategic reserves. Economic cycles also affect the demand for oil, which is higher during expansions when credit is widely available and can decrease sharply when contractions lead to reductions in the availability of credit. Improvements in the efficiency of alternative sources of energy production have also reduced the overall growth in the demand for oil. Increasingly stringent restrictions on oil exploration and production in response to environmental concerns have tended to increase the cost of oil production and decrease supply. Political risk is an important factor in oil supply. Over half the crude oil supply comes from countries in the Middle East, and conflict there can reduce supply dramatically.
Refined products (ex: gasoline, heating oil, and jet fuel)
These products are only stored for short amounts of time. Seasonal factors affect the demand for refined products in that greater vacation travel in the summer months increases gasoline demand, and colder weather in the winter increases the demand for heating oil. Since refineries are located in costal areas, hurricanes and extreme whether cause periodic refinery shutdowns.
Natural gas
Unlike crude oil, natural gas can be used just as it comes out of the ground with very little processing. Natural gas can then be transported through a pipeline but can also be transported on a ship. Natural gas must be liquified to be transported by ship, significantly increasing the cost of transport. Cold winters increase the demand for gas for heating fuel. Hot summers increase the demand for gas as well (for cooling) because gas is a primary source of fuel for electrical power generation.
Associated gas vs unassociated gas
Associated gas: Natural gas extracted w/ crude
Unassociated gas: Natural gas that is extracted where there is no crude extracted
Industrial metals (ex: aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, tin, iron, and copper)
Demand for industrial metals is tied to GDP growth and business cycles. Storage of metals IS NOT costly. Political factors, especially union strikes and restrictive environmental regulations, can have a significant effect on the supply of an industrial metal. Industrial metals must be smelted from mined ore. Both mines and smelters are large-scale operations with high development costs and high fixed costs.
Grains
Grown over an annual cycle and stored, although multiple crops in a single year are possible in some areas. The risks to grain supply are the usual: droughts, hail, floods, pests, diseases, changes in climate, and so on.
- Grains have uniform, well-defined seasons and growth cycles specific to geographic regions.
Precious metals
Can be stored indefinitely. Gold has long been used as a store of value and has provided a hedge against the inflation risk of holding currency. Jewelry demand is high where wealth is being accumulated. Industrial demand for precious metals is sensitive to business cycles.
Livestock
Supply of livestock depends on the price of grain since grain is used to feed the animals. Weather can affect the production of some animals. Disease is a source of significant risk to livestock producers, and some diseases have had a large impact on market prices. Income growth in developing economies is an important source of growth in demand for livestock. Freezing allows the storage of meat products for a limited amount of time.
- Livestock production is strongly influenced by seasonality
Softs/cash crops
Just as with grains, weather is the primary factor in determining production (cash crops are only grown in warm climates) and price, but disease is a significant risk as well. Demand increases with increases in incomes in developing economies but is dependent on consumer tastes as well.
Valuation of commodities
Commodities are physical assets and have no CFs. The spot price of a commodity can be viewed as the discounted value of the expected selling price at some future date. Storage costs for commodities can lead to forward prices that are higher the further the forward settlement date is in the future.
Participants in commodities futures markets
- Hedgers: investors who long or short futures contracts. Hedgers “do in the futures market what they must do in the future” (ex: A wheat farmer needing to sell wheat in the future can hedge price risk by selling futures contracts. A grain miller will need to buy wheat in the future and can hedge price risk by buying futures contracts.
- Traders/investors: Either speculators or arbitrageurs (seek to profit from mispricing in the forward market).
- Exchanges: Provide a venue for trading and gaurentee trades
- Analysts: Analysts are considered non-market participants. Perform analysis for data firms, government forecasts, etc.
- Regulators
The basis of a contract
The difference between the spot price and a futures price
Formula: S0 - F0
Calendar spread
The difference between the futures price of a nearer maturity and the futures price of a more-distant maturity.
Contango
When futures prices are higher at dates further in the future (F0 > S0)
- In a contango market, the calendar spread and basis are negative.
- When a futures market is in contango, long futures positions have a negative returns component
Backwardation
When futures prices are lower at dates further in the future (F0 < S0)
- The basis and calendar spread are positive.
- When a futures market is in backwardation, long futures positions have a positive returns component
3 theories of commodity futures returns
- Insurance Theory
- Hedging Pressure Hypothesis
- Theory of Storage
Insuance Theory
Created by John Maynard Keynes. The thoery states that commodity producers wanting to reduce their price risk is what drives commodity futures returns. Producers reduce uncertainty by writing short contracts on commodities which drives down futures prices. This theory states that the futures prices will be less than current spot prices to provide a return to speculators. The idea is that investors are getting return for providing insurance to producers’ price risk fears. The result of this is usually backwardation and the situation is called normal backwardation.
This theory lacks two empirical findings: first, buying futures has not resulted in the extra returns the theory says buyers should receive for providing “insurance.” Second, many markets are NOT in backwardation, but rather in Contango- which means investors get negative return for providing insurance.
Hedging Pressure Hypothesis
This is an add-on to the Insurance Theory. This theory states that producers who will sell their product in the future will short the commodity to hedge against price risk, while users who need inputs will use long forward contracts to reduce price risk. The more commodity users hedge w/ long future contracts, the more upward price pressure there is on the futures price. Under the Hedging Pressure Hypothesis, when producers’ hedging behavior dominates, the market will be in backwardation, and when users’ (people who will need to buy inputs) hedging behavior dominates, the market will be in contango.
Shortcomings of this theory: first, producers typically face more concentrated price risk than consumers: individual consumers will spend only a small portion of their income on a single commodity. Second, both producers and consumers may be speculators in the market, not just hedgers. Lastly, hedging pressure is not observable, so we cannot directly test the hypothesis that relative hedging pressure is the cause of backwardation and contango.
Theory of storage
This theory states that whether a futures market is in backwardation or contango depends on the relationship between the costs of storing the commodity for future use and the benefits of holding physical inventory of the commodity. When the costs of storage outweigh the benefits of holding physical inventory, futures are more attractive than current inventory, futures will trade at a higher price than spot, and the market will be in contango. Conversely, when the benefits of holding physical inventory outweigh the costs of storage, current possession is more attractive than future possession, spot prices are higher than futures prices, and the market will be in backwardation. The benefits of holding physical inventory is called convenience yield.
Formula: Futures price = spot price + storage costs - convenience yield
- F0 > S0 when storage costs are high
- F0 < S0 when convenience yield is high
True or false: A commodity is most likely to be stored by a physical exchange?
False, a commodity is most likely to be physically stored by an arbitrageur. Arbitrageurs may store a physical inventory of a commodity to exploit differences between spot and futures prices relative to the costs of storing the commodity
3 components of total return on a fully collateralized long futures position:
- Collateral return
- Price return
- Roll return