CFA L2 Econ Flashcards
(157 cards)
Exchange rate
The price of units of one currency in terms of another.
- Base currency is the first currency
- Price currency is what the base currency is in terms of
- Ex: 1.25 USD/EURO— $ = price currency and Euros = base currency
- 1 euro costs 1.25 USD.
Spot exchange rate
The currency exchange rate for immediate delivery (in most currencies this is two days after the trade)
Forward exchange rate
A currency exchange, agreed upon now, to be done in the future.
Pips
This is how we quote the spread. When we calculate the bid-ask spread, sometimes the spread is very small, so the pips is the spread times ten thousand.
Ex: .0025 = 25 pips
Interbank market
A wholesale market for currencies where large bank dealers are trading their currencies. This is where dealers manage their foreign currency inventories.
The spread (difference between ask price and bid price) quoted by a dealer in a spot market depends on:
- The spread in an interbank market for the same currency pair (a.k.a liquidity): the spread is more narrow in more liquid markets.
- The size of the transaction: larger transactions generally get quoted a larger spread.
- The relationship between the dealer and the client.
The interbank spread on a currency in a spot market depends on:
- Currencies involved: Currency pairs that are frequently traded command lower spreads than those seldom traded.
- Time of day: liquidity. There are three primary currency exchanges: London, NYC, and Tokyo. Because of time zone differences, these 3 markets are not all open at the same times but there are overlaps. When overlaps occur, there is high liquidity which causes the spread to narrow.
- Market volatility: the risk the dealer takes by keeping the currency in inventory. The higher the volatility, the higher the spread the dealer will demand.
Up-the-bid & down-the-ask rule:
If we have a bid price and offer (ask) price, then to turn the base currency into price currency we use the bid price * amount of the price currency we are trading it for. Oppositely, it we want to turn the price currency into the base currency, we divide the amount of price currency we have by the ask price.
Ex 1: USD: Euro → bid price = 1.1401 ; ask price = 1.1403. If we have $100 and want to convert it to euros, since USD is the price currency we take 100 ÷ 1.1403 = €87.70.
Ex 2: USD: Euro → bid price = 1.1401 ; ask price = 1.1403. If we have €100 and want to convert it to USD, since € is the base currency we take €100 * 1.1401 = $114.01
True or false: Investors buy the base currency from the dealer at the ask price and sell the base currency to the dealer at the bid price?
TRUE
True or false: Investors buy the price currency from the dealer at the ask price and sell the price currency to the dealer at the bid price?
False, investors buy the price currency from the dealer at the bid price and sell the price currency to the dealer at the ask price.
Cross rate
The exchange rate between two currencies that are both valued against a third currency. We must use cross rates when there is no active foreign exchange (FX) market in the currency pair we are considering. Usually the USD or € is the third currency.
Ex: USD/AUD = 0.60 and MXN/USD = 10.70. What is MXN/AUD?→ USD/AUD = MXN/USD → The USDs cancel each other out, so MXN/AUD = 0.60 * 10.70 = 6.42.
Ex: 2 USD/GBP= 1.56 and CHF/USD=1.4860. What is GBP/CHF?→ USD/GBP = CHF/USD. The USDs cancel out, so CHF/GBP = 1.56 * 1.486 = 2.31816. To transform this into GBP/CHF, take the reciprocal = 1 ÷ 2.31816 = 0.4314
Cross rates with bid-ask quotes:
USD/AUD= 0.6000 - 0.6015 ; USD/MXN= 0.0933 - 0.0935
Compute: MXN/AUD
MXN/AUD → first, we must convert either of the two cross rates above so that USD cancels out, it doesn’t matter which bid-offer quote we choose → (1 ÷ 0.0935) = 10.70 = (MXN/USD)bid OR (1 ÷ 0.0933)= 10.72 = (MXN/USD)offer →(USD/AUD) = (MXN/USD)bid → USDs cancel out → 10.70 * 0.6000 = 6.4200 = MXN/AUD(bid) OR 0.6015 * 10.72 = 6.4481 = MXN/AUD(offer)
True or false: Real-world currency dealers will maintain bid-ask spreads that ensure the dealer makes a profit?
True. If not, the customers could earn profits through triangular arbitrage.
Exam questions surrounding arbitrage revolve around three things:
- Verify the arbitrage (does an opportunity exist meaning quoted rate ≠ calculated rate.
- Structure the trades to exploit the opportunity (most questions deal with this
- Calculate the profit given an initial investment
Triangular arbitrage
A discrepancy between three foreign currencies that occurs when the currency’s exchange rates do not exactly match up. These opportunities are rare, and traders who take advantage of them usually have advanced computer equipment and/or programs to automate the process.
Bid too high, Ask too low, Out of business, sure to go! Recall, bid price is the price the dealer pays. This is how investors can make profit.
When is the dealer bidding too high and asking too low?
Bid too high: Bid price > cross ask price
Ask too low: Ask price < cross bid price
Triangular arbitrage example
Dealer quote: MXN/AUD = 6.3000 / 6.3025 ; (MXN/USD)bid = 6.4200 & MXN/USD(offer) = 6.4481
Question: Structure a profitable arbitrage trade
Dealer bid < CA → No violation
Dealer ask < CB → VIOLATION. Now we have to check if arbitrage profit is possible…
True or false: When calculating profit from a triangle, we can earn an arbitrage profit in both directions (clockwise and counter-clockwise)?
False, we can NEVER earn a profit in both directions.
Forward premium vs forward discount
Forward premium= When the forward price of the second currency > the spot price. We expect the base currency to appreciate against the price currency. Thus, we expect the price currency to depreciate against the base currency.
Forward discount= When the forward price of the second currency < the spot price. We expect the base currency to depreciate against the price currency and the price currency to appreciate against the base currency. Specifying forward premium/discount ALWAYS means the base currency is trading at a premium/discount
Calculation: F - S0
Ex: Forward price = 1.25$/€ and spot price= 1.20$/€. 1.25-1.20= .05 forward premium.
How to calculate the bid, offer, and all-in forward rates for a 30-day forward contract given spot rates and 30-day forward rates?
Given: Spot rate= 1.0511/1.0519 ; 30-day forward rate= +3.9/+4.1
30-day forward rate bid= 1.0511 + 3.9 ÷ 10,000= 1.05149
30-day forward rate ask= 1.0519 + 4.1 ÷ 10,000= 1.05231
30-day all-in forward quote= 1.05149/1.05231
True or false: If the forward contract price is consistent with interest rate parity, the value of the contract at initiation ≠ 0. After initiation, the value of the forward contract = 0.
False, if the forward contract price is consistent with interest rate parity, the value of the contract AT initiation = 0. After initiation, the value of the forward contract ≠ 0.
Mark-to-market value example- given:
contract size= $1MM
contract-specified forward rate= 1.05358
Spot rate= 1.0612/1.0614
30-day forward rate= +4.9/+5.2
60-day forward rate= +8.6/+9.0
90-day forward rate= +14.6/+16.8
Interest rates:
30-day= 1.12%
60-day= 1.16%
90-day= 1.20%
What is MTM value 30 days after initiation for a 90 day contract?
Forward bid price for a new contract expiring in 90 (contract length) - 30 (days passed)= 1.0612 + (8.6 ÷ 10,000)= 1.06206
Vt= [ (1.06206 - 1.05358) * 1MM ] ÷ [ 1 + .0116(60 ÷ 360) ] = 8,463.64 → This is how much the contract has gained in value since the inception of the contract. BE SURE TO USE PRICE CURRENCY INTEREST RATE
Covered interest rate parity
This theory is saying that forward discounts will offset any differences in interest rates so that the forward rate and the spot rate are in equilibrium
Big point 1: The currency w/ the higher nominal int. rate will trade at a forward discount.
Big point 2: When covered int. rate parity holds, an investor will make the same return holding either currency.
Ex: If the USD rate is 8% and the euro is 6%, the USD will trade at approximately a 2% relative discount to the euro.
- Under this condition, an investor would earn the same return investing in either currency (a.k.a arbitrage does not exist)
Covered interest rate parity requirement
F = ( [ 1 + Ra(days ÷ 360)] ÷ [1 + Rb(days ÷ 360) ] ) * S0
* F= Foward rate of A/B
* Ra= Interest rate for country A
* Rb= Interest rate for country B
* days= # of days in the forward contract
- If you are given USD/EUR, USD should be Ra and EUR should be Rb.