CHAPTER 1 Thinking Clearly in a Data-Driven Age Flashcards
Why is learning to think clearly about quantitative information important?
It helps in making better decisions in personal and professional life and being a more informed citizen.
What does Eric Schmidt claim about the creation of data in the contemporary world?
As much new data is created every two days as from the beginning of time through the year 2003.
What is the focus of thinking clearly in a data-driven age?
Staying focused on ideas and questions rather than technical details.
What is often overlooked in traditional statistics and quantitative reasoning classes?
Conceptual understanding and clear thinking about the purpose of data analysis.
What is the consequence of technicality overshadowing clear thinking in data analysis?
Students miss the forest for the trees and fail to engage deeply with the material.
What key questions should you ask when analyzing data?
- What features of the world are you comparing? * What questions can different comparisons answer? * Do you have the right question and comparison for your problem? * Why might a convincing answer be misleading? * How can creative approaches provide a more informative answer?
What is the belief about technique in relation to conceptual understanding?
Technique without conceptual understanding is a recipe for disaster.
Is prior exposure to data analysis necessary for this book?
No, the book requires no prior exposure to data analysis, statistics, or quantitative methods.
What is one outcome of learning the skills in this book?
Becoming a more sophisticated consumer and producer of quantitative information.
What does Ethan’s story about Abe illustrate?
The importance of understanding quantitative evidence and advocating for oneself.
What two rates characterize the effectiveness of a diagnostic test?
- False negative rate * False positive rate
What was misleading about the doctors’ statement regarding Abe’s positive blood test?
They did not provide information on the false positive and false negative rates.
What did Ethan discover about the false positive rate of Abe’s celiac test?
The false positive rate was 50 percent.
What was the best estimate of the likelihood of Abe having celiac disease given the test results?
About 1 in 1,000.
What is a counterfactual?
A special kind of claim that considers what could have happened under different circumstances.
What factors should be considered when organizing protests?
- Non-violent strategy versus violent strategy * Personal ethics * Evidence on costs and benefits of each approach
What do empirical studies suggest about non-violent versus violent protests?
Governments more often make concessions to fully non-violent groups.
What is a potential issue with comparing non-violent and violent protests?
Public opinion may affect government concessions, complicating causal interpretations.
True or False: Non-violent protests are always more effective than violent protests.
False.
What must be avoided to think clearly about data?
Mistaking correlation for causation.
What is the importance of confronting evidence that contradicts beliefs?
It helps to think clearly and make informed decisions.
What is the risk associated with violent protests compared to non-violent protests?
Violent protests are more likely to provoke government repression.
Fill in the blank: The combination of testing positive on an inaccurate test and testing negative on an accurate test can lead to a conclusion that is _______.
misleading.
What is the broken-windows theory?
A theory proposing that policing focused on minimizing disorder can reduce violent crime.
Proposed by George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson in 1982.
