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Thinking Clearly with Data > CHAPTER 3 Causation: What Is It and What Is It Good For? > Flashcards

CHAPTER 3 Causation: What Is It and What Is It Good For? Flashcards

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1
Q

What is a causal effect?

A

A change in some feature of the world that results from a change to some other feature of the world.

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2
Q

Why is assessing causal relationships important?

A

It is crucial for policy and decision making.

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3
Q

Which question is conceptually clearer: ‘What effect did this have on the outcome?’ or ‘What caused the outcome?’?

A

‘What effect did this have on the outcome?’

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4
Q

What are causal relationships fundamentally about?

A

Comparisons of counterfactual worlds.

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5
Q

What is a counterfactual comparison?

A

A comparison between the actual world and an alternative world where a feature has changed.

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6
Q

What does the phrase ‘would result’ imply in the context of causation?

A

It refers to a counterfactual comparison between outcomes in the actual world and an alternative world.

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7
Q

What is the potential outcomes framework?

A

A mathematical framework for representing counterfactuals.

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8
Q

In potential outcomes notation, what does T = 1 signify?

A

The person received the treatment.

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9
Q

What does T = 0 signify in potential outcomes notation?

A

The person did not receive the treatment.

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10
Q

What is the fundamental problem of causal inference?

A

Causal effects can never be directly observed.

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11
Q

Why can we not observe the effect of going to college on income?

A

We only observe one actual outcome, either having gone to college or not.

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12
Q

How can scientists assess average effects in a study?

A

By comparing average outcomes in treated and untreated groups.

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13
Q

What is necessary to weigh the costs and benefits of a decision?

A

Knowledge of causal relationships.

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14
Q

Fill in the blank: Causality is about _______ comparisons.

A

counterfactual

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15
Q

True or False: We can observe both potential outcomes for each individual.

A

False

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16
Q

What must we believe about a proposal to enact new policies?

A

That it will cause better outcomes.

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17
Q

What is a treatment in the context of potential outcomes?

A

An intervention or variable being studied, such as Body Vibes.

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18
Q

What is the outcome referred to in potential outcomes?

A

The result of the treatment, such as skin health.

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19
Q

What does the comparison of potential outcomes help clarify?

A

Counterfactuals.

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20
Q

What is required to determine the effect of an intervention on outcomes?

A

Understanding how the intervention affects outcomes.

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21
Q

What can scientists not observe due to the fundamental problem of causal inference?

A

The causal effect for any individual.

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22
Q

What does the FDA need to know to make decisions about drug approval?

A

The average effect of the drug on health in the population.

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23
Q

What is the key causal question for the FDA’s decision regarding drug approval?

A

If we approve the new drug, how will health change in the population on average?

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24
Q

What is the fundamental problem of causal inference?

A

We can never know for sure what would happen in a counterfactual world.

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25
What is the but-for test in assessing legal liability?
It requires answering questions like 'Would a harm to Anthony not have happened but for Ethan’s actions?'
26
What does the counterfactual definition of causality help us think about?
It helps us think more clearly about conceptual issues related to causation.
27
Why do some causal questions appear incoherent within the counterfactual framework?
Because causation is defined in terms of counterfactual comparisons.
28
What common claim is made about the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand?
It was caused by the assassination in 1914, leading to World War I.
29
What is an example of a proximate cause of World War I?
The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.
30
According to counterfactual thinking, how are causes viewed?
There are many causes, making it difficult to pinpoint a single cause.
31
What can be concluded about individual events and their causes?
Individual events can have many equally important and consequential causes.
32
What hypothetical scenario illustrates that an event may have no causes?
Two people shoot the same victim simultaneously, and either bullet would be fatal.
33
What is a common skeptical reaction to evidence of average effects?
Pointing to counterexamples.
34
In the context of flu shots, what does an individual counterexample suggest?
It does not disprove the average effect of flu shots across populations.
35
What are the three different types of people in the flu shot example?
* Always sick * Never sick * Vaccine responders
36
What is the outcome for vaccine responders when they receive a flu shot?
They do not get the flu if they get the shot.
37
How can the average treatment effect of flu shots be positive despite individual differences?
Because the treatment effect is averaged across different types of individuals.
38
What might a counterexample regarding flu shots indicate about an individual's experience?
That individual might belong to a group that does not respond to the vaccine.
39
How can heterogeneous treatment effects be identified?
By running separate experiments for observable categories.
40
What is the main challenge in understanding causal effects?
Causal effects are often heterogeneous across individuals and cannot be directly observed. ## Footnote Some individuals may experience effects significantly different from the average.
41
Define cause-in-fact.
Cause-in-fact is determined by whether an outcome would have occurred but for a specific action. ## Footnote It is essentially a counterfactual standard.
42
What is proximate causality?
Proximate causality refers to the closeness of a cause in the causal chain necessary for liability. ## Footnote It distinguishes between more immediate and distant causes.
43
True or False: Causality can run backward in time.
False. Causality is typically understood to run forward in time. ## Footnote However, there are debates about how anticipation of events may create a perceived backward effect.
44
What is the fundamental problem of causal inference?
The fundamental problem of causal inference is that we can only observe a unit in one treatment status at a time, preventing direct observation of causal effects. ## Footnote This limits our ability to definitively establish causality.
45
What does heterogeneous treatment effects mean?
Heterogeneous treatment effects occur when the effect of a treatment varies among different individuals or groups. ## Footnote This contrasts with homogeneous treatment effects, where the same effect is assumed for all.
46
Fill in the blank: A __________ is any intervention in the world we analyze for its causal effect.
[treatment]
47
What is a counterfactual comparison?
A counterfactual comparison involves evaluating outcomes in two different states, at least one of which does not actually exist. ## Footnote This is essential for understanding causal relationships.
48
What is a potential outcome?
A potential outcome is the outcome that a unit would experience under a specific treatment status. ## Footnote This concept is crucial in the potential outcomes framework.
49
True or False: Causation implies correlation.
False. Causation does not necessarily imply correlation, nor does correlation imply causation. ## Footnote There can be situations where features are correlated but do not have a direct causal relationship.
50
What is the relationship between firefighters and fire damage in terms of correlation and causation?
There is a positive correlation between the number of firefighters at a house and fire damage, but firefighters typically reduce fire damage. ## Footnote This illustrates that correlation can misrepresent causal relationships.
51
Define physicalism in the context of causation.
Physicalism is the view that causation necessarily involves physical connections between events. ## Footnote This is often debated in cases where non-physical factors influence behavior.
52
What is the role of anticipation in the causal relationship of sending birthday cards?
Anticipation of a birthday may affect the sending of birthday cards, suggesting a forward causal relationship. ## Footnote However, the actual event of the birthday also exerts a backward effect.
53
What does it mean to say causality need not imply correlation in expected directions?
Causation can exist without corresponding correlation in the expected direction, as seen in examples like firefighters and fire damage. ## Footnote This highlights the complexity of establishing causal relationships.
54
What are the two potential outcomes for always drinkers in potential outcomes notation?
Y^T_i = 1, Y^T_i = 1 ## Footnote Always drinkers will drink regardless of the legal status of alcohol.
55
What are the two potential outcomes for legal drinkers in potential outcomes notation?
Y^T_i = 1, Y^T_i = 0 ## Footnote Legal drinkers will drink only if alcohol is legal.
56
What are the two potential outcomes for never drinkers in potential outcomes notation?
Y^T_i = 0, Y^T_i = 0 ## Footnote Never drinkers will not drink regardless of the legal status of alcohol.
57
What is the causal effect of making alcohol illegal on always drinkers?
0 ## Footnote Always drinkers will continue to drink whether alcohol is legal or illegal.
58
What is the causal effect of making alcohol illegal on legal drinkers?
1 ## Footnote Legal drinkers will stop drinking if alcohol becomes illegal.
59
What is the causal effect of making alcohol illegal on never drinkers?
0 ## Footnote Never drinkers will not be affected by the legal status of alcohol.
60
Is there an effect, on average, of banning alcohol in this society?
Yes, legal drinkers will stop drinking. ## Footnote The average effect is influenced by the behavior of legal drinkers.
61
True or False: The argument that a person's uncle's friends kept drinking after a ban on alcohol is a convincing argument against the effectiveness of the ban.
False ## Footnote This argument does not consider the different drinking behaviors of the groups.
62
What is the first consultant's opinion on the cause of RNC's loss in the 2020 presidential election?
They didn’t do enough television advertising. ## Footnote This reflects a focus on media strategy.
63
What is the second consultant's opinion on the cause of RNC's loss in the 2020 presidential election?
They should have encouraged more supporters to vote. ## Footnote This emphasizes voter mobilization.
64
What is the third consultant's opinion on the cause of RNC's loss in the 2020 presidential election?
Donald Trump should have done a better job responding to COVID-19. ## Footnote This highlights the importance of crisis management in campaigns.
65
What was the incident involving Dustin Johnson at the 2016 U.S. Open?
His ball moved after he tapped his putter next to it. ## Footnote This raised questions about causation and penalties in golf.
66
What is the argument made by the official that Johnson couldn’t have possibly caused the ball to move?
He never touched the ball directly. ## Footnote This argument centers on direct physical contact.
67
What is the argument made by the official that the true cause of the ball moving was the greenskeeper?
The greenskeeper's actions caused the ball to move. ## Footnote This shifts blame from Johnson to external factors.
68
What did the empirically minded official demonstrate when testing the ball movement?
He tapped his putter next to a ball and it didn’t move. ## Footnote This suggests that Johnson's actions alone may not have been sufficient.
69
What did the official who observed the incident closely conclude?
If Johnson hadn’t tapped, the ball wouldn’t have moved. ## Footnote This supports the idea of causation based on observation.
70
What historical event is linked to Antony and Cleopatra's love affair?
The end of the Roman Republic and establishment of the Roman Empire. ## Footnote Their defeat by Octavian at the Battle of Actium was pivotal.
71
Why is it confusing that the basketball players are called the Maroons?
The newspaper is also named the Maroon. ## Footnote This could lead to branding issues in the university.

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