Class 6 - Voting behavior

Question 1

Voeten: What does Voeten examine regarding energy transition policies

Answer 1

Whether they affect how people vote - specifically if they vote for radical right parties

Question 2

Voeten: Research methods, incl. IV and DV

Answer 2

Differences-in-differences design with panel data from 2007-2020

RQ: Were voters who were more affected by household energy price changes more likely to intend to vote for the radical right?

IV: Whether your monthly rent includes or excludes gas, water, and electricity + whether you are energy poor

DV:

Question 3

Voeten: Why would the energy poor/those affected by energy transitions vote for the radical right?

Answer 3

Out of self-interest! The radical right were the only opposition to the Dutch reform in 2014

RRP argues that renewable energy subsidies typically benefit wealthy home-owners and businesses and disadvantage the common people

Question 4

Voeten: Why would renters whose utilities are included in the rent feel differently than those whose utilities aren’t included? (4)

Answer 4

1. Landlords may not pass on all energy price increases to renters, whereas those who pay them separately will feel it
2. The inclusion of utilities in rent obscures prices, whereas those who pay directly see them
3. Renters who pay separetely may adjust their behavior in response to price increases which reduces their everyday comfort levels, whereas renters with utilities included are less likely to
4. Individuals whose rents include utilities are more likely to benefit from it, as landlords have a higher incentive to collect the subsidies and invest

Question 6

Voeten: How does he explain why those renters with utility bills included in the rent become less supportive of the radical right?

Answer 6

Climate change acceptance and worry is pretty high in the NL -> they care about climate change and are unaffected by the cost

Question 7

Voeten: How does he define the energy poor?

Answer 7

Those who either spend 10% or more of their disposable income on gas and electricity or those who cannot sufficiently heat their homes or pay their energy bills

Question 8

Voeten: What are his main findings regarding the energy poor?

Answer 8

They become more likely to vote for the radical right after the policy change

Question 9

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: What is rental market risk?

Answer 9

Individuals’ exposure to the latent economic threat from a rent price appreciation in their local environment

Question 10

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: What 2 mechanisms link rent levels to political behavior?

Answer 10

Pocketbook channel: Increases in actual rents prompt reactions amongst those affected, prompting voters with lower disposable income to support redistribution and left-wing parties

Geotropic channel: Increasing rent levels represent a source of insecurity about your capacity to uphold your standard of living and social status in the mid- and long-term -> risking status decline

Question 11

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: What do they argue that status threat (caused by rental market risk) drives and for who?

Answer 11

Support for anti-establishment forces, such as radical right parties

For long-term residents who have profound local ties to their neighborhood and those with lower household income, esp. in booming regions, cities and metropolitan suburbia where rent spikes are more frequent and forceful

Question 12

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: Research methods, incl. IV and DV

Answer 12

German panel data 2005-2018 investigating how individuals react to changes in rent levels in their neighborhood

IV: nominal local market rents at postcode level

DV: Supporting radical right party AfD

They control for actual household rent to remove pocketbook effects and analyze geotropic channel exclusively

Question 13

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: What are their main findings (4)?

Answer 13

Among renters with lower household income, rising local rental prices significantly increase the probability of supporting AfD

Renters with higher levels of household income become less likely to support AfD with rising local rental prices -> household income strongly moderates the geotropic effect of local rent prices

Rental market risk has a significant affect on voting probability in urban localities

Increases in actual household rent do NOT significantly predict AfD support -> evidence against pocketbook effect

Question 14

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: How do homeowners respond to rising local rents?

Answer 14

Reduce radical right support, as higher rents are seen as beneficial for neighborhood upgrading

Question 15

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: What do they conclude based on their findings regarding pocketbook vs. geotropic channels?

Answer 15

Increases in local market rents do not affect residents through their acute financial burden (pocketbook effect), but through the latent threat that in the absence of sufficient financial resources, individuals may not be able to uphold their standard of living and social status (geotropic channels)

Question 16

Abou-Chadi, Cohen & Kurer: What new perspective do their findings add to literature on radical right support?

Answer 16

That support also can arise in booming regions (not just declining) when individuals experience rental market risk

Question 17

Ansell et al.: What is an often overlooked issue in radical right party support and why would it matter?

Answer 17

Housing!

Populism is driven by status considerations across locations -> housing prices play a key role in economic fortune and experiences of relative decline

Question 18

Ansell et al.: What are the 3 key channels that connect housing prices to voting for populist parties?

Answer 18

1. Pocketbook effects directly impacting homeowners: material gain or loss from changes in housing prices
2. Geotropic effects reflecting communities’ relative status
3. Mobility effects concerning the ease of moving from declining to booming areas: people feel “locked in” to stagnating or declining regions

Question 19

Ansell et al.: What are the 3 aspects of geotropic effects?

Answer 19

Statistical learning: if people near me “look like me” and become unemployed, maybe I also will

Economic learning: if there is a lower demand for goods and services from my region, maybe people won’t hire me/buy from me

Altruism: if people care about what happens to their community, then local economic decline makes them unhappy even without material effect on themselves

Question 20

Ansell et al.: But why should people vote for populist right parties instead of left-wing or green parties when housing prices decrease unequally?

Answer 20

While left parties tend to emphasize solidarity and overall economic inequality, populist parties place particular emphasis on the relative status of declining areas -> well-suited to pick up on place-based resentments

Question 21

Ansell et al.: Research methods, incl. IV and DV

Answer 21

Differences-in-differences model measuring support for Danish People’s Party from 1998-2015 + support this with municipal data from Sweden, Norway and Finland

IV = average nominal price of one square meter of housing in DKK in regional zip code in the quarter of the election

DV: Vote share for the dominant right-wing populist party

Question 22

Ansell et al.: What are their main findings (4)?

Answer 22

1. Changes in house prices are strongly negatively associated with changes in support for the Danish People’s Party -> effect becoming stronger over time
2. No distinction between homeowners and renters -> cannot differentiate between pocketbook and geotropic effects
3. Primarily former right-wing party voters that move toward the DPP
4. Similar effects in Sweden, Norway, and Finland

Question 23

Ansell et al.: What do they conclude about their findings?

Answer 23

Wealth inequality matters for radical right support and housing inequality could be becoming an important cleavage

Question 24

Bolet et al.: What is the main problem with garnering support for costly climate policies?

Answer 24

Asymmetrical: Concentrated costs/losses and diffuse benefits across different groups

Question 25

Bolet et al.: Why do some groups such as workers in carbon-dependent industries mobilize against climate policies?

Answer 25

The costs fall disproportionately on them: They face both consumer costs (increased energy prices) and producer costs (threats to their employment and economic activity)

Question 26

Bolet et al.: Why are policymakers incentivized to listen more to those who mobilize against climate policies?

Answer 26

Spatially distorted signalling = Because they are often geographically concentrated in electoral districts and can be used to flip seats in the legislature

Question 27

Bolet et al.: What do they want to investigate?

Answer 27

If costs fall disproportionately on workers in carbon-dependent industries, how can we get them to support climate policies?

Question 28

Bolet et al.: What is a just transition strategy?

Answer 28

Combining climate policies with redistributive policies to support the affected workers and communities - developed through tripartite social dialogue between government, unions, and employers

Question 29

Bolet et al.: What was the Spanish Just Transition Agreement?

Answer 29

Closed 28 coalmines in 3 provinces at the end of 2019 and provided 250 million euros in support and investment in the affected municipalities, such as early retirement schemes and social assistance

Question 30

Bolet et al.: Research methods, incl. IV and DV

Answer 30

Mixed-methods approach Difference-in-differences study on 3 provinces comparing mining and non-mining municipalities within them IV: Municipalities contain or do not contain coalmines closed in the JTA DV: Vote share for PSOE (party that made the JTA) in 2019 Spanish national election + interviews with elites who participated in the negotiation + further statistical tests

Question 31

Bolet et al.: What was their 2 main findings from the diff-in-diff?

Answer 31

The increase in PSOE vote share in coalmining municipalities in the 2019 election was significantly greater than in similar non-coalmining municipalities Increased vote shares in 2019 elections was strongest in municipalities close to the coalmines -> support attributable to JTA

Question 32

Bolet et al.: What was their main findings from the elite interviews? (3)

Answer 32

Crucial to accepting JTA were 1. The intermediating role of labor unions which supported the agreement 2. The social dialogue that built trust, leading them to see the government as a credible policy broker 3. Redistributive measures, at both the individual and community level

Question 33

Bolet et al.: What are their main findings from the further statistical tests?

Answer 33

Used to examine what drove support Direct payment to workers -> insignificant Unions -> union-dense coalmining municipalities registered significantly greater support

Question 34

Bolet et al.: What do they use their findings to conclude?

Answer 34

Stringent climate policies can be electorally successful among fossil fuel-dependent communities that would traditionally oppose such policies if they are packaged with redistributive policies developed through social dialogue

Question 35

Bolet et al.: What are the 3 scope conditions for their findings?

Answer 35

1. Carbon-dependent industries are in a weaker bargaining position 2. Left-wing parties are in government and have close ties with trade unions 3. Government has the fiscal capacity to provide assistance, given the size of the affected industry

Question 36

Class notes: What is political behavior?

Answer 36

Actions and attitudes of individuals and groups related to governance, politics and power

Question 37

Class notes: How does social policy shape political behavior (5)?

Answer 37

1. Material effects 2. Political socialization 3. Group identity 4. Mobilization 5. System legitimacy

Question 38

Class notes: What are first and second order preferences?

Answer 38

First-order: issue-based preferences Second-order: broader ideological/systemic preferences

Question 39

Class notes: What are 6 different forms of electoral behavior?

Answer 39

1. Voting 2. Campaign contributions 3. Attending events 4. Contact elected officials 5. Going to town hall meetings 6. Signing petitions, protesting

Question 40

Class notes: How do voters differentiate between economic hardship caused by government policy vs. external factors (global crisis)?

Answer 40

Usually they do not and blame the incumbent, no matter the cause But depends on the type of crisis: Economic crisis -> government at fault Threat to the state -> increase support for government As well as second-order preferences

Question 41

Class notes: What are 4 causes of the housing affordability crisis?

Answer 41

1. Organized opposition to development (NIMBYism) 2. Jurisdiction size (DK: smaller jurisdictions more housing, US: bigger jurisdictions more housing) 3. Electoral rules (affects responsiveness) 4. Fiscal constraints (spending money elsewhere)

Question 42

Class notes: How can homeownership be seen as an asset?

Answer 42

Something people purchase to protect themselves from risk

Question 43

Class notes: What are the heterogeneous effects of price increases?

Answer 43

If housing prices go up, it is really good for homeowners who get higher rents, but really bad for renters who must pay higher prices

Question 44

Class notes: How is a housing crisis experienced different in urban/rural areas?

Answer 44

In urban areas, it is a problem of affordability In rural areas, it is a problem of depreciation of value

Question 45

Class notes: What are 3 possible policy interventions to a housing crisis?

Answer 45

Rent control Zoning Social housing

Question 46

Class notes: What does the interquartile range show?

Answer 46

How much density is in the middle and how much is affected by outliers -> measure robustness of the main chunk of the data

Question 47

Class notes: How can housing burden be measured - from the demand and supply side?

Answer 47

Demand-side: 1. Percentage of income more then 30 or 40% 2. Shelter Poverty Standard 3. Residual income measure Supply-side: 1. Vacancy rates 2. Housing Affordability mismatch approach

Question 48

Class notes: How do you measure whether someone is energy poor, and who is most vulnerable?

Answer 48

1. Expenditure to income ratio 2. Ability to keep house warm Lower-income renters

Question 49

Class notes: What is the main takeaway from all the readings of this class?

Answer 49

When costs/prices go up, it affects voting

Question 50

Class notes: Mediator vs. mechanism

Answer 50

A mediator is always a mechanism, but a mechanism is not always a mediator