Decision Making Flashcards
Whistlestop tour formal logical and reasoning (judgement)
People are generally good at solving problems when they are presented in an abstract manner
Generally world knowledge almost inhibits our ability to provide the logical response to logical problems
Logical reasoning
Normative theory
Dev over centuries by mathematics/philosophers
Deductive reasoning
Deals with certainty
From general to specific
Conclusion usually follows from initial premises or hypothesis
Inductive reasoning
Deals with probabilities and common sense
Educated guess
Suggests truth but doesn’t ensure it
Syllogism
3 statement logical form with the first two parts stating the premises or statements taken to be true and the third staying a conclusion based on premises
Goal - to understand how differently premises can be combined to give logically true conclusions
And understand combinations that lead to incorrect conclusions
Judgement research
Use of cues
Accuracy
Base rate Information
Relative frequency of an event within a population
Heuristics
Rules of thumb that are cognitively undemanding often produce accurate answers
Representativeness heuristic
Determination of the likelihood of an event based on how similar the event is to previous events
Conjunction fallacy
Mistaken belief that the probably of a conjunction of two events is Greater than the probability of one of them
Availability
Determination of likelihood of an event based on how available the info about the event is to the decision maker
Anchoring
Assessment of an event based on some known value or historical precedent
Hindsight bias
Tendency to think something after the fact that they wouldn’t have thought before
Confirmation bias
Positive test strategy - look for presence of cases that confirm hypothesis
Anchoring heuristic
After forming a belief people are biased not to abandon it
Increases weighting in judgements
