DECK 6 Flashcards
(13 cards)
Provide a background regarding the geopolitics, energy markets, decrbonization, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Soviet Union collapses in 1991
- Premise: Integration of autocratic regimes into world trading systems would untimately lead not only to ecnonmic liberizatiion, but eventually to political liberalization
- Countries with intertwined supply chains would remain on cordial / peaceful terms
- Increase European dependence on Russia hydrocarbons rationalized using economic and geopolitical arguments (Cheap energy would support European economic growth/competitiveness and Russia would prosper economically and liberalize politically)
Talk about the end of history and the last man, Francis Fukuyama in 1992
Fukayaman wasnt arguing that history had ground to a halt. Rather he was saying that the competition between liberalism and suthoritarianism had been settled and the liberal democracy had won. It was a seductive argument
What is the Budapest Memorandum in 1994?
Guarenteed sovereignty of Ukraine and its territory; in exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal; guarantors: Russia (Sergei Lavrov), USA, UK
Why did Ukrain seek to turn to the West?
- Holodomor - manmade famine that killed an estimate of 4 million Ukrainians
- Mass deporations to Serbia, the Gulag from which may never returned (Opression and Poverty)
- In the 21st Century
Orange revolution (massive protests against fraudulent elections)
Revolution of Dignity (Maindain) - protests because President Yanulovich abruptly fails to sign a political association and trade agreement with EU (Russia responded by invaiding eastern Ukraine and Crimea)
Continued war in eastern Ukraine
Full Scare Invasion
While much of Europe Increases its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, what path did Lithuania take?
- Lithuania which imported almost all its natural gasses fro Russua, spent 330 million on a floating LNG storage and regasification unit
- Launched in 2014 and was named the independence
- “In Lithuania, we say that energy is the second pillar, next to the military of our national security”
What is Vitaw Initatur Ars?
Life imitates art
Expand on the statement “Life Imitates Art”
“Life imitates art far more than art imitates life” Oscar Wilde
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a comedian and attorney
starts in a television series Servant of the People from 215-2019 in which he plays a history teacher who is unexpectedly elected president after a viral video in which he excoriates corruption
In 2019 he was elected president with 73% of the vote leading the Servant of the People party
Would Russia have democratized if only the West had implemented different strategies?
- Dutch disease and indutrilization
- Resource curse and democratization
- Ruling elites in countries which receive much of their revenues from resource extraction (think of oil)
Do not have to engage with the people, or give them a political voice
absense of revenue bargaining (whereby the population would provide government with tax revenues, in return for services, stability, and political voice)
in ‘rentier’ states, ruling elites need to provide sufficient goods and services so they are not overthrown, but not much more
What was Russia’s Natural Resource Curse?
- Russia’s natural resources - most importantly oil and natural gas
stifled modernization
stifled democratization - Oil revenues can endanger a weak democracy by bossting the popularity of an elected incumbent, who gradually removes checks and balances on thier own authority
- It provided Russia with leverage against European countries which were heavily dependent on Russian gas and to a lesser degree oil (In september 2014, after the Russian invasion of Crimea, Germany signs a memorandum with Russia to proceed with nord Stream 2)
What were Russia’s Strategies?
- Destruction of infrastructure (water/energy/electricity)
- Attacks on civillians (to undermine the will to resist)
- Natural gas to Europe (a powerful economic lever)
- Global oil supplies (high prices are good for Russia)
- Food/Grain supplies (Ukraine is a major exporter of grains)
- Threateing wider war (even nuclear threats)
- Strengthining China ties (a natural ally and energy exports)
- Waiting for West to lose interest (Orban/Hungary, US election outcome)
- Cyberwarfare (disruption)
10.Social Media dsinformation/deception (useful idiots) - Control of Russian media and population (Widespread arests of protestors, concealing deaths and casualties; reports that many Russians believe that the invation is fake news or a defensive action)
- Further oppression of opposition (think poisoning and imprisonment of Navalny — dictators have used fear of external threat to limit freedoms
- Future tarets (Modova, Caucasus, Baltic States)
What were China’s Strategies?
2011, by Henry Kissinger
- The West plays chess, the game of warefare
- China plays Weigi, widely known as ‘go’, the game of encirclement
- Tiananmen Square, 10 years after Den xiao ping begins ecnonomic liberization (Markets, private ownership) political represion ; also HK, Taiwan, Uyhur
- Disastrious policies, costing millions of lives: The Great Leap Forward followed by the Cultural Revolution begins in 1966
Globalization makes ‘decoupling’ from China difficult
- Western corporations want to manufacture in China, and have access to China’s domestic markets
- Nevertheless, they complain about forced technology transfer, appropriation of intellectual property without compensation
China is a major energy importer, hence has economic interests i aligning with Russia, not just because it is an authoritarian state
- increasing exports of natural gas frm Russia to China
- China has opposed what it calls “illegal sanctions” by the West on Russia (China has itself engaged in economic santions including in the energy space)
China is a dominant player in minerals and rare earths that are essential for decarbonization
- Western Climate strategies may collide with national security interests
Is China ‘neutral’?
- has not condemned what is widely seen as atrocities and war crimes
- ‘Neutrality’ helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages tormentor, never the tormented
Domestic strategy
- focus on economic growth
- population control, no independent media, ‘surveillance state’
What were the Western Strategies?
Supporting Ukraine
- millitary hardware and intellegence
- humanitarian aid
- refuges for refugees
- integrating Ukrain’s electricity system into Europe
- increasingly powerful weapons
- admission into Europe Union? NATO membership not currently on the table
Economic Pressure
- banking/finance
- oligarcs
- limiting western company activity in Russia
- technology ambargoes
- reducing/eliminating European/Western dependece on Russian natural gas and oil
- miltiple series of sanctions
What were the Wider Consequences of the Russian invasion to Ukraine?
Energy and Climate
- acceleration of decarbonization, especially in Europe
- LNG trade expanding very rapidly
- possibly increased decentralization of energy systems to reduce risks of cyberattacks, destruction of infrastructure
- inceeased use of coal in the short-term
Geopolitics
- Strengthening/expansion of NATO
- inrease coheasion of liberal democracies, for now
(democracies often have short memories or want to forget, think of Europ post WW1, and autocracies can take the long view)
Economics
- very high energy prices in 2022, have come down
- possible food shortages (famine risks in vulnerable countries in africa, and middle east)
- slowing/reversal of globalization
- risks of slower growth and stagflation
