Goldfarb Flashcards Preview

CAS Exam 9 > Goldfarb > Flashcards

Flashcards in Goldfarb Deck (76)
Loading flashcards...
1

General form of return on capital (ROC)

(Goldfarb)

ROC = income / capital

2

Issue with the general form of return on capital (ROC)

(Goldfarb)

fails to recognize varying degrees of risk

3

Measures of income to use in ROC (4)

(Goldfarb)

1. GAAP net income
2. statutory net income
3. IASB fair value basis net income
4. economic profit

4

Methods to reflect risk in ROC (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. implicitly by using premium-to-surplus or reserve-to-surplus ratios
2. explicitly by adjusting income, capital, or both

5

Measures of capital to use in ROC that are not risk-adjusted (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. actual committed capital
2. market value of equity

6

Measures of risk-adjusted capital to use in ROC (4)

(Goldfarb)

1. regulatory required capital
2. rating agency required capital
3. economic capital
4. risk capital

7

Difference between IASB fair value income vs. GAAP/statutory income

(Goldfarb)

IASB fair value removes biases in country-specific accounting standards (e.g. discounts loss reserves and includes a risk margin)

8

Economic profit

(Goldfarb)

economic profit = (premium - expenses) * (1 + investment return %) - premium * LR discounted to t=1

9

Limitations of using economic profit as an income measure (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. does not consider changes in firm value from future profits (franchise value)
2. difficult to reconcile to GAAP
3. decision rationale may not be clear to external parties if decision-making is based on economic profit but reporting is based on GAAP accounting

10

Actual committed capital

(Goldfarb)

actual committed capital = contributed capital + retained earnings

11

Market value of equity

(Goldfarb)

considers franchise value, so generally > committed capital

12

Economic capital

(Goldfarb)

capital required to ensure probability of achieving a given objective

13

Possible objectives used for economic capital requirements (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. solvency - hold enough capital that firm can meet future obligations to PH
2. capital adequacy - hold enough capital to reach other objectives such as paying dividends, gaining premium, or maximizing franchise value

14

Risk capital

(Goldfarb)

capital contributed by shareholders to absorb the risk that liabilities will exceed premium & loss reserves

15

Risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC)

(Goldfarb)

RAROC = economic profit / risk-adjusted capital

16

Issue with RAROC

(Goldfarb)

different capital allocation methods can lead to different conclusions

17

Common risk measures (4)

(Goldfarb)

1. probability of ruin
2. percentile risk measure (VaR)
3. conditional tail expectation (CTE, aka TVaR)
4. expected policyholder deficit (EPD) ratio

18

Probability of ruin risk measure

(Goldfarb)

estimated probability that a ruin scenario will occur

ex: insurer default or ratings downgrade

19

Percentile risk measure (VaR)

(Goldfarb)

amount of capital required to achieve a specific probability of ruin target (= loss amount exceeded X% of the time)

20

Conditional tail expectation (CTE, aka TVaR) risk measure

(Goldfarb)

average loss out of losses that exceed a given percentile

21

Approx. default probability using TVaR

(Goldfarb)

approx. default probability = (1 - TVaR %) / 2

22

Expected policyholder deficit (EPD) ratio risk measure

(Goldfarb)

avg value of shortfall b/w assets and liabilities relative to expected liabilities

(denominator is total # of scenarios/simulations, not just those generating a deficit)

23

Methods for selecting risk measure thresholds (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. bond default probabilities for credit rating level
2. management's/shareholder's risk preferences
3. arbitrary default probability, percentile, or EPD ratio

24

Bond default probabilities for credit rating level risk measure threshold

(Goldfarb)

set the threshold such that the probability of default = probability of default of bonds with the desired credit rating (e.g. AA-rated)

25

Weakness of the bond default probability method for selecting a risk measure threshold

(Goldfarb)

does not address which rating firm's should target

26

Considerations for selecting bond default probabilities for selecting a risk measure threshold (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. historical (more stable) vs. current (more responsive) default rates
2. can get different estimates from different rating agencies - should use the most reflective of current estimates
3. default probabilities should be adjusted to reflect the time horizon

27

Weakness of using management's risk preferences to determine risk measure threshold

(Goldfarb)

management may have difficulty agreeing or preferences that clash with board/shareholders

28

Risk sources (aka risk distributions, 4)

(Goldfarb)

1. market risk
2. credit risk
3. insurance UW risk
4. other risk sources: operational & strategic

29

Market risk

(Goldfarb)

potential loss in value of current investments from
- changes in equity indices
- interest rates
- FX rates
- and other market variables

30

Credit risk

(Goldfarb)

potential loss in value due to credit events such as
- counterparty default
- changes in counterparty credit rating
- changes in credit-rating specific yield spreads

31

Credit risk exposures (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. market securities, derivative & swap positions
2. insured's contingent premiums and deductibles
3. reinsurance recoveries

32

Unique challenges of credit risk associated with reinsurance recoveries (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. may require a broader definition of default (to include reinsurer rating downgrade)
2. substantial contingent exposure
3. reinsurance credit risk is correlated with other insurance risks

33

Sources of insurance UW risk (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. loss reserves on prior policy years (adverse development from prior yr exposures)
2. UW risk for current policy year (risk premium charged is insufficient to cover losses & expenses)
3. property CAT risk

34

Loss reserve risk and components (3)

(Goldfarb)

risk actual losses <> expected losses due to:

1. process risk (random variation)
2. parameter risk (inaccurate parameter estimates)
3. model risk (wrong model)

35

Methods for measuring current period UW risk (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. LR distribution models
2. frequency and severity models

36

LR distribution models for measuring current period UW risk and reliances (2)

(Goldfarb)

combines a distribution of losses with estimates of WP

relies on:
1. source of model parameters (historical vs. industry)
2. choice of distribution (e.g. normal, lognormal, gamma)

37

Frequency and severity models for measuring current period UW risk

(Goldfarb)

combines separate frequency and severity distributions to generate an aggregate loss distribution

38

Advantages of frequency and severity models for measuring current UW risk (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. more easily accounts for exposure growth
2. more accurate reflection of inflation
3. reflects changes in limit/deductible profiles

39

Measuring property CAT risk

(Goldfarb)

use meteorological, seismological, and engineering data to produce a probability distribution of CAT losses (CAT model)

40

Methods to determine measures of correlation/dependency (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. empirical analysis of historical data
2. subjective estimates
3. explicit factor models

41

Advantage of empirical analysis of historical data to measure correlation/dependency

(Goldfarb)

intuitive appeal

42

Disadvantages of empirical analysis of historical data to measure correlation/dependency (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. data may not exist
2. may contain measurement errors,
3. may fail to capture tail events

43

Advantages of subjective estimates to measure correlation/dependency (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. reflects dependency during tail events
2. reflects user's intuition

44

Disadvantages of subjective estimates to measure correlation/dependency (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. # of required correlations increases as # of risk sources/LOB increase
2. difficult to ensure internal consistency in estimates

45

Explicit factor models for measuring correlation/dependency

(Goldfarb)

uses models to link variability of assets to sensitivity of common factors

46

Methods for finding aggregate distributions (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. closed-form solutions
2. approximation methods
3. simulation methods (most common)

47

Approaches for reflecting dependencies in simulation methods (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. Iman-Conover method
2. copula method
3. square root rule

48

Iman-Conover method for reflecting dependencies

(Goldfarb)

simulates each random variable separately and reshuffles stand-alone results to produce a specific rank correlation

49

Copula method for reflecting dependencies

(Goldfarb)

simulates correlated percentiles to achieve a certain level of correlation in specific parts of the distribution

50

Square root rule for aggregating stand-alone risk measures

(Goldfarb)

Capital = sqrt(sum across all risks(capital(i)^2) + double sum rho(i,j) * capital(i) * capital(j))

51

Conditions for the square root rule to produce an exact approximation (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. risk measure is proportional to standard deviation
2. all risk distributions are normal

52

Capital allocation methods (4)

(Goldfarb)

1. proportional allocation
2. incremental allocation
3. marginal allocation
4. co-measures

53

Proportional capital allocation

(Goldfarb)

calculates stand-alone risk measures for each risk source and allocates total risk capital proportionally

54

Incremental capital allocation

(Goldfarb)

calculate a risk measure for the aggregate risk, then recalculate the same risk measure after removing one of the business units

difference in required capital = incremental capital requirement for that business unit

total risk capital is allocated in proportion to incremental capital requirements

55

Marginal capital allocation

(Goldfarb)

measures the change in capital requirement as a small change in the exposure of the risk source and allocates total risk capital in proportion to the marginal amounts

56

Capital allocation using co-measures

(Goldfarb)

determines the contribution each risk source has to the aggregate risk measure

sum of co-measures = total risk capital as long as the same risk measure is used (if not, allocate proportionally to the co-measures)

57

Advantage of the Myers-Read marginal approach to capital allocation

(Goldfarb)

sum of the individual BU capital = total capital when the same risk-measure is used

58

Challenges with the Myers-Read marginal approach to capital allocation (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. difficult to calculate the value of the default put option
2. assumes BU risk exposure can be changed without impacting the shape of the loss distribution (which is not true of insurance in general)

59

Applications for risk-adjusted performance metrics (5)

(Goldfarb)

1. assessing capital adequacy
2. setting risk management priorities
3. evaluating alternative risk management strategies
4. risk-adjusted performance measurement
5. insurance policy pricing

60

Evaluating alternative risk management strategies using RAROC

(Goldfarb)

calculate RAROC before and after a risk mitigation strategy and evaluate the impact

61

Using RAROC for insurance policy pricing

(Goldfarb)

set premiums such that expected RAROC is above a specified target rate

62

Target RAROC for insurance policy pricing

(Goldfarb)

RAROC(target) = [(premium + pi - expenses) * (1 + investment return %) - premium * LR discounted to t=1] / allocated risk capital

pi = additional risk margin
assumes risk margin does not contribute to expenses

63

Simplifications when using target RAROC for insurance policy pricing (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. ignores investment income on allocated risk capital (means target RAROC is an excess return over investment return)
2. ignores reality of multiperiod capital commitment
3. cost of risk capital used (usually CAPM) is not directly comparable to RAROC

64

Adjusted target RAROC and when to use it

(Goldfarb)

Adjusted target RAROC = target rate * total PV(BOY capital discounted to t=1) / initial capital

assumes 100% of capital is required in 1st period and releases capital according to a payment schedule in subsequent years

use to reflect risk over multiple periods (multi-period capital commitment)

65

Reasons cost of capital from CAPM is inconsistent with RAROC (2)

(Goldfarb)

1. CAPM measures systematic risk whereas RAROC is focused on tail risk
2. RAROC is leveraged because it uses risk-adjusted capital (vs. actual committed capital or market value of capital)

66

Ways to address CAPM cost of capital and RAROC inconsistencies (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. adjust CAPM return upward by ratio of total capital / risk capital
2. use total capital in RAROC instead of risk capital
3. reframe the cost of capital as frictional costs of holding capital

67

Practical considerations ignored by RAROC methods (4)

(Goldfarb)

1. sources of risk have different time horizons
2. significant differences b/w RAROC and GAAP or statutory income measures
3. risk-based allocation relies on tail-based risk measures vs. more normal events that could materially impact firm value
4. does not consider diversification adjustments

68

Stranded capital

(Goldfarb)

stranded capital = held capital - risk-based capital

69

Types of events more important to shareholders compared to tail-events (3)

(Goldfarb)

events impacting
1. credit rating
2. financial strength
3. ability to continue operations

70

Accounting for risks measured over different time horizons (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. use 1-yr horizon for all risks = change in value
2. multiperiod DFA models (lifetime)
3. ignore inconsistencies

71

Advantage of using 1-yr time horizon for all risks

(Goldfarb)

mathematically appealing

72

Issues with using a 1-yr time horizon for all risks (3)

(Goldfarb)

1. no reliable method for recognizing adverse reserve development
2. change in value may not fully capture risk
3. ignores large portion of risk in loss reserves b/c majority of risk will not be seen over a 1-yr horizon

73

Advantage of using multiperiod DFA models to address different time horizons

(Goldfarb)

consistent risk exposure horizon for all risks

74

Disadvantage of using multiperiod DFA models to address different time horizons

(Goldfarb)

complex to model long-term market and credit risk exposure

75

Advantage of ignoring inconsistencies to address different time horizons

(Goldfarb)

simplifies required modeling

76

Disadvantage of ignoring inconsistencies to address different time horizons

(Goldfarb)

difficult to interpret aggregate risk models