Implicit decision making Flashcards
What is reasoning?
The process by which we transform/combine information in order to draw conclusions about the world
What is decision making?
The process by which we select an action from a number of choices in order to generate a particular outcome
What are the different conditions under which we make decisions?
> Under risk
> Under uncertainty
What is rational decision making based on?
> The problem itself is unambiguous > Single well-defined goal > All alternatives and consequences are known > Preferences can be clearly states > Preferences are constant and stable > No time/cost constraints > We make choices that maximise payoff
What are the features of intuitive decision making?
> Relies on unconscious, non-rational or non-linear processes
Based on experience
Integrates isolated information into a coherent whole
Relies on biases and heuristics
What is the processing distinction?
Dissociation between explicit and implicit forms of decision making
> Analytic/normative = conscious
> Heuristic/intuitive = unconscious
What are the different types of decision making tasks?
> Framing problems
Conjunction fallacy
Non-deliberate thinking task
Base rates
What is the Asian disease task?
> Framing task
A disease expected to kill 600 people
Two ‘cure’ options
(One numerical, 200 saved, 400 die (either framed positively or negatively))
(One fraction 2/3 chance everyone will die, 1/3 chance everyone will live (framed inverse of previous))
Ppts decide which one to use
What did Tversky and Kahneman (1981) find?
> Asian disease task
72% chose 200 will live over 2/3 will die
78% chose 1/3 chance everyone will live, 2/3 chance everyone will die
What are the implications of Tversky and Kahneman (1981)?
People are risk averse if potential losses are described first, risk seeking if gains described first
What did Tversky and Kahneman (1983) find?
> Conjunction fallacy
Judgement of likelihood of characteristics for a described character (Linda)
Understanding probability theory does not improve performance
What is conjunction fallacy?
> Violating the extension law of probability (a conjunction cannot be more probable than its constituents)
Typically simultaneous with the representativeness bias
What did Stanovich and West (1998) find?
Those who performed high on SATs (american version) don’t commit conjunction fallacies
What did DeNeys, Vartanian and Goel (2008) find?
That the anterior cingulate cortex is activated when replicating Tversky and Kahneman (1983)
What does DeNeys, Vartanian and Goel (2008) imply?
That during decision making there is a conflict between intuition and rational judgements
What are the criticisms of Tversky and Kahneman (1983)?
> If the statement is changed to indicate that the second feature of the conjunction fallacy may or may not be true, the fallacy drops from 85% to 57%
May indicate that people are using social cues to make pragmatic inferences
What is the non-deliberate thinking task?
> Ppts asked to choose the best car out of four
Given either simple case (4 features) or complex case (12 features
Spend 4 minutes making decision or solving complex anagrams
Those in complex task perform better when solving anagrams
What is the base-rate task?
> Cab involved in a hit and run, blue or green
85% of cabs are green, rest blue
Witness identified blue
Witness 80% reliable
Ppt asked to determine likelihood car was blue
What did Kahneman and Tversky (1973) find?
> Base-rate task
Most responded 80% (neglect base rate)
Demonstrates reliance on eronious information
What is the baserate-updated task?
> Thumbnail descriptions of 1000 ppt
995 females, 5 males
Description (androgynous name; Jo) given to ppt, who has to judge gender
Jo has more stereotypically masculine features
What did DeNeys et al (2010) find?
More likely to judge Jo as man
What have the base-rate and baserate-updated tasks demonstrated?
> People make errors in decision making tasks
When told correct answer, continue to make wrong judgements
Don’t show insight
Highly contextualised experimental thinking
Difficulty adopting or implementing normative standards
What are the different theories of decision making?
> Evolutionary theory
Prospect theory
Dual process theory
What does the evolutionary theory of decision making propose?
> Reasoning and logic not designed to handle this sort of information
If decision making tasks are presented as frequency performance rises
People use heuristics
