L8 - Reason and Decision-making Flashcards
(23 cards)
What is inductive reasoning?
Making generalisations from specific observations; conclusions are probable, not certain.
What is deductive reasoning?
Drawing specific conclusions from general statements or premises; conclusions are logically certain.
What are the two types of deductive reasoning?
- Conditional (with ‘if’), 2. Syllogistic (involving quantifiers like ‘all’, ‘some’, ‘none’).
What are the four types of conditional reasoning problems?
- Modus ponens (valid), 2. Modus tollens (valid), 3. Affirmation of the consequent (invalid), 4. Denial of the antecedent (invalid).
What is Modus Ponens?
If P then Q; P is true, therefore Q is true. VALID.
What is Modus Tollens?
If P then Q; Q is false, therefore P is false. VALID.
What is Affirmation of the Consequent?
If P then Q; Q is true, therefore P is true. INVALID.
What is Denial of the Antecedent?
If P then Q; P is false, therefore Q is false. INVALID.
What is syllogistic reasoning?
Two premises followed by a conclusion; includes quantifiers (e.g. all, some, no).
What is belief bias?
Accepting invalid but believable conclusions or rejecting valid but unbelievable ones.
What is the mental model theory?
We create internal models of situations and test conclusions; harder problems require more models.
What is the dual-systems theory?
Reasoning involves a fast, intuitive heuristic system and a slow, analytical system.
What is the heuristic-analytic theory?
Initial intuitive model from heuristic process is evaluated and possibly revised by analytical system.
What are the assumptions of dual-systems theory?
- Singularity (one model at a time), 2. Relevance, 3. Satisficing (accept if adequate).
How does informal reasoning differ from logical reasoning?
Based on knowledge, context, and goals; not constrained by formal logic.
What factors influence informal reasoning?
- Content (plausibility), 2. Context (expertise), 3. Probabilities, 4. Motivation.
What is the ‘neuroscience illusion’?
People rate explanations with neuroscience as more satisfying, even if irrelevant (Weisberg et al., 2008).
What three factors affect perceived strength of conclusions?
- Prior belief, 2. Positive arguments > negative, 3. Evidence strength (Hahn & Oaksford, 2007).
What is myside bias?
Tendency to evaluate statements based on personal beliefs, not logic.
What did Howe & Leiserowitz (2007) find about climate change?
Beliefs influenced memory of weather events; dismissive individuals least likely to recall warm summer.
How does prior knowledge affect reasoning?
People more likely to accept plausible conclusions, even if logically invalid (Markowitz et al., 2013).
What are two strategies for reasoning under time constraints?
- Statistical (less demanding), 2. Counterexample (more demanding).
Are humans rational?
Depends on definition: poor at formal logic, but perform well in real-world reasoning with uncertainty.
