Lecture 3 Judgmental Biases Flashcards
Representativeness/Similarity Heuristic
Rule of thumb in which the likelihood of a hypothesis is evaluated by considering the degree to which available info is representative of the hypothesis.
Bayes Law
The conditional probability of A, given B
Base Rate Neglect
Conditional probability of some hypothesis given some evidence is assessed without taking sufficient account of the “base rates”
Conjunction Fallacy
The conjunction fallacy is an inference that a conjoint set of two or more specific conclusions is likelier than any single member of that same set
Law of small numbers
A long sequence of events generated by a random process will have characteristics that closely resemble those of the generating process - not only globally across the entire (short) sequence, but also locally in each of its parts
Gambler’s Fallacy
When people know the data-generating process, believers in the law of small numbers expect non-representative sequences to be restored by deviations in the opposite direction
Hot-hand fallacy
When people do not know the data-generating process, believers in the law of small numbers exaggerate the likelihood that the underlying rate resembles a (given) short sequence of signals
Confirmation Bias
Tendency to look for confirmation of existing beliefs
Biased search for evidence
Tendency to look for information that is expected if one’s hypothesis were true, rather than if it were false
Biased interpretation of evidence
Tendency to accept confirming evidence at face value while subjecting disconfirming evidence to critical evaluation
How is the reasoning called if you have a biased interpretation of evidence?
Motivated reasoning
Self-Serving reasoning
Ostrich effect
Given preliminary bad news to people optimally choose to avoid collecting additional information: they “put their heads in the sand” to shield themselves from further news. In contrast, given preliminary favorable news, individuals seek out definitive information
Availability heuristic
Frequency or probability is estimated by the ease with which instances or associations can be brought to mind
What are three biases derived from the availability heuristic?
Biases due to ease of recall
Biases due to retrievability
Biases due to imaginability
Biases due to ease of recall
How well instances are stored in memory by Familiarity, salience and recency
