# Lecture 3 Judgmental Biases Flashcards

1
Q

Representativeness/Similarity Heuristic

A

Rule of thumb in which the likelihood of a hypothesis is evaluated by considering the degree to which available info is representative of the hypothesis.

2
Q

Bayes Law

A

The conditional probability of A, given B

3
Q

Base Rate Neglect

A

Conditional probability of some hypothesis given some evidence is assessed without taking sufficient account of the “base rates”

4
Q

Conjunction Fallacy

A

The conjunction fallacy is an inference that a conjoint set of two or more specific conclusions is likelier than any single member of that same set

5
Q

Law of small numbers

A

A long sequence of events generated by a random process will have characteristics that closely resemble those of the generating process - not only globally across the entire (short) sequence, but also locally in each of its parts

6
Q

Gambler’s Fallacy

A

When people know the data-generating process, believers in the law of small numbers expect non-representative sequences to be restored by deviations in the opposite direction

7
Q

Hot-hand fallacy

A

When people do not know the data-generating process, believers in the law of small numbers exaggerate the likelihood that the underlying rate resembles a (given) short sequence of signals

8
Q

Confirmation Bias

A

Tendency to look for confirmation of existing beliefs

9
Q

Biased search for evidence

A

Tendency to look for information that is expected if one’s hypothesis were true, rather than if it were false

10
Q

Biased interpretation of evidence

A

Tendency to accept confirming evidence at face value while subjecting disconfirming evidence to critical evaluation

11
Q

How is the reasoning called if you have a biased interpretation of evidence?

A

Motivated reasoning
Self-Serving reasoning

12
Q

Ostrich effect

A

Given preliminary bad news to people optimally choose to avoid collecting additional information: they “put their heads in the sand” to shield themselves from further news. In contrast, given preliminary favorable news, individuals seek out definitive information

13
Q

Availability heuristic

A

Frequency or probability is estimated by the ease with which instances or associations can be brought to mind

14
Q

What are three biases derived from the availability heuristic?

A

Biases due to ease of recall
Biases due to retrievability
Biases due to imaginability

15
Q

Biases due to ease of recall

A

How well instances are stored in memory by Familiarity, salience and recency

16
Q

What does bounded awareness?

A

Bounded awareness prevents us from noticing (and using) relevant data

17
Q

In which three parts does Bazerman and Moore distinguish Bounded Awareness between?

A

Inattentional Blindness
Change Blindness
Focalism/focusing illusion

18
Q

inattentional/perceptual blindness?

A

Failure to see something which you are not looking for, even when you are looking directly at it

19
Q

Change Blindness

A

Failure to notice obvious changes in the environment

20
Q

Focalism/Focusing Illusion

A

Tendency to make judgments on the basis of attention to only a subset of available information