What percentage of voters think there are important differences between what the two parties stand for (1972 and 2008)?
Which organisation attempted to centralise the Democratic party after 1984 and 1988 election defeats?
Democratic Leadership Council (DLC)
Examples of moderate Republicans
Gerald Ford, George H. W. Bush, Christine Todd Whitman
Examples of conservative Republicans
Ronald Reagan, John Ashcroft, Mitt Romney
Solid South: Southern Democrat and Republican congress members (both houses) in 1960
Democrat: 99 House, 22 Senate
Republican: 7 House, 0 Senate
Solid South: Southern Democrat and Republican congress members (both houses) in 2012
Democrat: 40 House, 6 Senate
Republican: 98 House, 16 Senate
Reasons for Red-Blue divide?
Reagan wooed conservative Democrats and unsettled moderate Republicans (1981-1989); end of Cold War in 1989; partisan presidencies of Clinton, Bush and Obama
Action of a national committee
DNC stripped Michigan and Florida of half their convention delegates in 2008 as they scheduled their primaries too early
21st Century Elections where Democrat and Republican candidates have accounted for 99% of the vote
2004, 2008 and 2012
Combined share of Clinton and Trump in 2016
Third parties deciding elections
2000: Green candidate Nader won 2.7% of result, giving close states to Bush instead of Gore.
Bush won Florida by 537 votes, Nader won 100,000 votes there
What requirement limits third parties from accessing federal matched funds?
Must have won 5% of vote in previous election
Ballot access laws in California
Must receive signatures equal to 1% of state population
Who popularised theory of Party decline?
Percentage of ‘independent’ voters in 1972 and 2012 elections?
Evidence for Party Decline in 2016
Trump’s election despite not having the backing of Republican establishment (Romney, Ryan. Bush etc)
Legislation opposed by Tea Party
Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act (2008) and Obama’s 2009 economic stimulus package
Size of tea party caucus in 2017
52 (48 House, 4 Senate)
Successful Tea Party Senate primary upsets in 2012
Richard Mourdock defeating six-term incumbent Richard Lugar and Ted Cruz’s defeat of David Dewhurst
Evidence of Faithless Electors 2016?
One Hawaii delegate pledged to Clinton voted for Bernie Sanders; One Texas delegate pledged to Trump voted for John Kasich
Third Parties at the 2016 election?
Gary Johnson (LIB): 4.5 million votes (3.3%) Jill Stein (GRN): 1.5 million votes (1.1%)
Last presidential election where a third party/ independent carried any states?
Presidential election results in Michigan 2012 and 2016?
2012: Obama 54% Romney 45%
2016: Trump 47.5% Clinton 47.3%
Which traditional Democrat states did Trump capture in 2016?
Michigan (last Republican in 1988) and Wisconsin (last Republican in 1984)
Partisan voting on legislation?
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (2010)
All 178 Republican House members voted against; all but 34 Democrats voted in favour
Partisan voting on appointments?
All 52 Republican Senators voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch in 2017; all but 3 Democrats voted against
Anti-Partisan voting on legislation?
Freedom Caucus (31 House seats) did not support first American Healthcare Bill in 2017