PSY2001 S2 W8 Risk perception Flashcards

(62 cards)

1
Q

Why do we mean by risk?

Risk perception

A

no agreed definition, because no one definition is suitable for all problems.
Concerns the potential of gaining or losing something of value resulting from a given action or inaction which can be foreseen/unforeseen.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

What are values?

A

physical/emotional health, social status, financial wealth

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

What is risk perception?

A

The subjective judgement that people make about the severity and probability of a risk. Varies from person to person.
The study of risk perception arose out of the observation that experts and lay people often disagree about how risky various technologies and hazards are

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

How do we calculate/perceive risk?

A

how likely - likehood
how impactful - impact

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

People’s risk perception is it accurant to actual risk?

A

no
Slovic et al. 1981 found that even after being told that nuclear power had the lowest deaths participants ranked it as most risky.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

Why is risk perception not always accurate ?

Slovic et al. 1981

A

People aren’t objective
technical expert judgment are in line with objective date. Lay judgements do not agree with objective data and lay judgement of risk do not even agree with lay estimate of current annual fatalities

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

Provide example of this clash in lay judgment and lay estimates

A

women voters and students assigned nuclear power the highest risk value but the lowest in terms of annual fatalities

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

Why are people estime not the same as their risk perception?

A

News cover topics that are scary like terrorism (Boston marathon, months later fertilizer explosion in texas with more fatality never gained global coverage)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

What is risk ?

A

Risk concerns the potential of gaining or losing something of value resulting from a given action or inaction which can be foreseen/unforeseen.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

What is risk perception?

A

Risk perception is the subjective judgement that people make about the severity and probability of a risk

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

Why risk perception matters?

A

Risk perception is important because it affects political attitudes, behaviour, economy and society. It allows us to better communicate risks and to direct policy

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

How can risk perception affect behaviour?

A

According to the Protection Motivation Theory, risk perceptions affect our behaviour through influencing our threat appraisal (severity of risk) and this interacts with our coping appraisal to influence our behaviour

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

What are some theories of risk perception and what do they do?

A

Cultural theory, heuristics & biases, the psychometric paradigm, social amplification of risk

Can help explain real world issues such as risk perceptions regarding genetically modified food, personal risks of contracting illnesses/being in accidents. How risk perceptions can be manipulated by media reporting

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

What are the strengths of social amplification fo risk?

A

Can explain why certain risks experts characterize as small “produce massive public reactions”

helps to clarify phenomena, such as the key role of the mass media in risk communication and the influence of culture on risk processing,

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

What are the limitations of social implication of risk?

A

Amplification may be directed as to what are regarded as ‘exaggerated’ risks

May be too general to test empirically and particularly to seek outright falsification

Formulated 30 years ago = long before the advent of the online media environment we know today and largely studied within traditional mass media

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

Does risk perception affect political attitudes?

A

Huddy et al. 2005: Level of perceived risk predicts support for aggressive anti-terrorism strategies.
People with more risk perception of terrorism are more likely to support more aggressive anti-terrorism strategies.

Taylor et al., 2014: Public perception of climate risk predicts support for climate change policies.
People with more risk perception of climate risk are more likely to support climate change policies.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
17
Q

Does risk perception affect behaviour?

A

Gigerenzer (2006): “An estimated 1,500 Americans died on the road in the attempt to avoid the fate of the passengers who were killed in the four fatal flights.”

Spinelli & Osborn (1991). Chernobyl explosion 20 to 30 excess abortions per day in Italy in the next 5 months – worry of the effect of radiation on the unborn child.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
18
Q

Does risk perception affect economy and society?

A

Poisoning - Decrease in footfall and tourism following Salisbury novichok poisonings led to £3.7m fund from Government to help city recover

COVID - UK enters recession after gross domestic product plunged 20.4% in second quarter of 2020

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
19
Q

How does risk perception affect communication?

A

allows us to communicate better

Acton, Rogers & Zimmerman (2007): People are much more concerned about radiation from dirty bomb, than about the explosion. But guess which will kill more people? – made from more readily able radiation, the radiation isn’t enough to kill but the explosion will.

Neumann-Bohme et al. (2020: Concerns about vaccine side-effects/safety reduces willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19 –

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
20
Q

What is the protection motivation theory?

Rogers & Prentice-Dunn, 1997

A

According to PMT, protective behaviours occur when individuals have high protection motivation.

Usually measured using intentions for the relevant protective behaviour. Protection motivation arises as the result of combining two cognitive appraisals: Threat appraisal and coping appraisal

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
21
Q

What is Protection motivation?

Floyd et al. 2000

A

motive that arouses, sustains and directs activity

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
22
Q

How important is the effect of risk perception on behaviour?

A

the effect of risk perception on behaviour is particularly important as this can have ripple effects on other areas, e.g. economy, society, government policy

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
23
Q

What model tried to explain the behavioural impact of health risk information?

A

Protection motivation theory

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
24
Q

What is threet appraisal?

A

considers the risky behaviour
the perceived severity of the threat
Probability of being vulnerable to the threat
Rewards of the risky behaviour

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
25
What is coping appraisal ?
considers the adaptive/protective behaviour Response efficacy (of the health behaviour for dealing with the threat) self-efficacy or confidence for beign able to engage in the behaviour response costs of the adaptive behaviour
26
how does threat and coping appraisals interact?
Threat and coping appraisals interact to influence motivation for the protective behaviour. E.g. If people believe they can cope with the protective behaviour, then the greater the perceived threat, the greater their intentions for the protective behaviour. However, if people don’t believe they can cope, increases in perceived threat, decreases intentions for the protective behaviour
27
What is some evidence for the protective motivation theory | Floyd et al. 2000
In line with PMT: + Increases in threat severity (d=0.48), threat vulnerability (d=0.21) of the risky behaviour, and o Increases in response efficacy (d=0.55), and self-efficacy (d=0.45) of the protective behaviour + Increased adaptive intentions or behaviors o Increases in risky behaviour rewards (d=0.52) and protective behaviour response costs (d=1.05) - decreased adaptive intentions or behaviors In general, coping variables showed slightly stronger relations with the adaptive behaviors than did the threat variables
28
What research is there of the effect of PMT intervention? | Malmir et al. (2018)
Randomised controlled trial to test the effect of a PMT intervention on improving cervical screening attendance Questionnaire including PMT constructs and demographic variables. Experimental group:educational intervention based on PMT: 6 sessions covering topics such as epidemiology, signs and symptoms, risk factors, importance of early detection via cervical screening Results: Intervention had significant effects on the experimental groups’ PMT construct scores. Cervical screening attendance and health center enquiries about screening were significantly increased after 3 months in the experimental
29
What are the limits of the studies testing PMT?
Studies measure intentions rather tha behaviour. Measurement of intentions is often vague with no time frame. (People with more perceived vulnerability may intend to change their behaviour earlier than others) When behaviour is assessed, self-report measures are often used (social desirability and recall bias) Measurements of PMT constructs are often not validated/reliable (Norman et al. 2005)
30
Why is there a smaller relationship between threat appraisals and protective behaviour?
Could be because threat appraisals are better predictors of behaviours intended to reduce specific health threats e.g., getting vaccinated. But less for behaviours that have a variety of health, social and economic consequences e.g. exercise, diet. Supported by Brewer et al. (2007) correlation between perceived vulnerability & vaccination intentions is stronger than behaviours with wider consequences
31
What is a criticisms of experimental designs used to test PMT prediction?
tending not to use mediation analyses to test if the impac to fthe intervention is due to change in the PMT constructs Follow up tend to be short
32
What influences risk perceptions?
Risk perceptions are important, they affect behaviour, economy etc. But risk perceptions aren’t based on objective stats (e.g. think back to Slovic et al. 1981)
33
What theories or approaches help understand risk perception?
cultural theory Heuristics and biases psychometric paradigm of risk social amplification of risk
34
What is the cultural theory? | Douglas & Wildavsy 1982
Risk perceptions are socially constructed by institutions, cultural values and ways of life (less about personal control). Individuals are expected to form perceptions of risk that reflect and reinforce their commitment to one or another “cultural way of life”. 4 ‘ways of life’ across the dimensions: Group and Grid o Fatalism, Hierarchy, Individualism and Egalitarianism
35
What does strong grid mean? | cultural theory
view life should be oranised through role differentiation based on sex, ethnicity, wealth
36
what is strong group? | cultural theory
view life as a sense of community peopld depend on eac other
37
What is weak group? | cultural theory
view life as competitive, people fend for themselves
38
What is weak grid? | cultural theory
view life should be equal where anyone can participate in any social role
39
What is fatalists? | cultural theory
feel regulated by social groups they do not belong to indifferent about risk -weak group +strong grid
40
What is individualism? | cultural theory
fear things that obstruct their individual freedom -weak group +week grid
41
What's hierarchy? | cultural theory
fear things that disrupt the natural order of society +strong grid +strong group
42
What is egalitarianism? | cultural theory
fear things tht increase inequalities amongst people +strong group -weak grid
43
What are the limitations of cultural theory? | Johnson & Swedlow 2019
Doesn’t allow for individual rational choice Empirical support based on studies using unreliable and non-validated measures of ‘the ways of life’ Respondents could and do rate high on more than one world view Only explain a small amount of variance in individual perceptions of risk, e.g. studies typically find about 5% of variance in risk judgments are explained by cultural theory measures
44
What is som empirical support for the cultural theory? | drake 1991
Cross-sectional telephone survey Measured associations between 3 ways of life (Hierarchy, Individualism, Egalitarianism) and societal risk concerns. Results: Hierarchy and individualism are related to concerns about social deviance and war, but individualism more concerned about market issues Egalitarianism is related to concerns about technology, the environment and breakdown of democracy Suggest that each cultural way of life is associated with different risk perceptions
45
What is the heuristics and bias appraoch? | Tversky & Kahneman 1974
Found that people use heuristics to evaluate informaiton. Especially likely to be used where time is short/self-efficacy for studying the facts is low Provide a way of arriving at a decision about risks where the information is incomplete, unfathomable or bewildering in terms of its possibilities
46
What are heuristics?
mental models on which to base judgements of risk Often useful shortcuts for thinking But may lead to inaccurate judgments in some situations>cognitive biases Based on experience
47
How does heuristics affect risk perceition?
Draws attention to the way that feelings about a risk object are used by individuals to arrive at conclusions about levels of risk and their acceptability. If feelings towards a risk object are positive, there is a tendency to underestimate the potential harm and overestimate the benefits. Altering people’s emotions, often affects how they perceive a risk
48
What empirical support is there for the affect of heuristics?
Hsee & Kunreuther (2000): What would you pay to insure this clock a. If it was a gift from your grandparents b. If it had no real sentimental value Reuslts: People were willing to pay twice as much for object with sentimental value Yamagishi (1997): What’s worse, a disease that kills… a. 1,286 out of every 10,000 people it affects, b. or one that kills 24.14% of people? Results: People most often chose option a, even though option b has a higher risk of death (12% vs 24%)
49
Based on the heuristics approach what could affect risk perception?
emotion
50
How does availability affect heuristics and risk perception?
Risk perceptions (RP) depend on how easily someone can see the risk as happening. RP based on how easily one can think of an example of a risky situation happening; Direct and indirect suffering explains most of the variance in risk judgements Intro of the mass media causes problems: Rare causes of death tend to be overestimated because they hit the media Common causes of death tend to be underestimated because they don’t
51
What evidence is there of availability heuristics?
Keller et al. 2006 - PTT askd to imagine that they were planning on buy a house and received some information about probability of flood. Availability heuristic based on direct experience affected risk perceptions: PTT with experience of flooding, rated the riskiness of living in the house much higher than those with no previous experience Facione (2002) - cancer screening behaviour and perceived risk of developing breast cancer. Availability heuristics based on direct or indirect experience influenced risk perceptions: Women with history of benign breast disease, with a female relative with breast cancer, or both overestimated their risk
52
What is the optimism bias?
bad things happen to other people. Risk of my spouse being affected is higher than the risk of me being affected. Optimism bias -> more likely to engage in risky behaviours
53
Why do people have the optimism bias?
Defensive denial – protects from worry Downward comparison – “compared to people really at risk...” Egocentricism – “Ah, but I take precautions!” [and others don’t?]
54
What evidence is there for optimism bias?
Dejoy 1989 - College-age drivers compared their risk of being involved in a variety of traffic accidents relative to their peers. Optimism bias: Believed in almost all situations they would be at less risk than other drivers Weinstein et al. (2005) - telephone survey of current smokers, asked about their own risks of cancer vs the risk of the average smoker. Optimism bias: Believed they had a lower risk of developing lung cancer than the average smoker. Perceived risk of cancer did not increase proportionally with the number of cigarettes smoked per day. Agreement with several myths, e.g. that exercise undoes most smoking effects
55
What is the psychometric paradigm? | Slovic et al. 1986 1987
Suggests risks perceptions are based on a range of dimensions. The aim is to unveil the dimensions that determine risk perceptions in order to create a taxonomy for hazards that can be used to understand and predict estimates of risk. 1- PTT rate ‘riskiness’ of a range of hazards (alcoholic beverages-nuclear power) 2- PTT rate each hazard on a range of dimensions (novelty, severity, knowledge...) Look at correlations between rated riskiness and dimension scores
56
What dimension seem to matter | Psychometric paradigm
Change depending on exact paper you look at - not all used in every study. Early studies looked at nine: Voluntary vs involuntary Chronic vs catastrophic Common vs dreaded Certain not fatal vs definitely fatal Known to those exposed vs unknown Immediate effects vs delayed Known to science vs not known to science Not controllable vs controllable New vs old
57
What is an example socring from Slovic studies? | Psychometric Paradigm
Factor analysis of dimensions typically identifies two factors: Dread (e.g. lack of control, fatal, risk increasing, involuntary) Unknown (e.g. new, unknown to science/those exposed, effect delayed) Dread: shows strongest correlations with global estimates of risk
58
What is the empirical support for the psychometric paradigm? | Jenkins, Harris & Osman 2020
UK sample rated 11 old and new food hazards on a total of 12 risk dimensions (e.g newness, severity, immediacy). Results: Principal components analysis identified two main components: ‘dread’ and ‘knowledge’ explained 80.8% of the variance in perceptions
59
What are the strengths of the psychometric paradigm? | Sjoberg, et al. 2004
Basic gist of psychometric paradigm replicated many times. Different dimensions matter in different situations, but agreement that Dread and Unknown are important. Factor structure is pretty stable and account for risk perceptions pretty well, studies in the tradition of the psychometric paradigm typically explain 70% or even more of the variance in risk perceptions
60
What are the limitations of the psychometric paradigm? | sjoberg et al. 2004
Works best on aggregate level data (i.e., comparing different risks among groups). Poorer associations at individual level or for individual risks. Replication of correlations and factors could be due to artefacts in the question wording (they are pretty similar) “Risk” is often targetless – risk to me? to my family? to non-specific others? Different properties, and different dimensions, seem to matter in different studies - Where are the testable predictions?
61
What is the social amplification of risk ? | Kasperson et al. 1988
Brings together previous fragmented theories to better understand how risk information is disseminated and changed through different actions and interactions. Outlines how communications of risk events pass from the sender through intermediate stations to a receiver explaining how risks are amplified or attenuated. SARF states that risk events interact with individual psychological, social and other cultural factors in ways that either increase or decrease public perceptions of risk
62
What evidence supports the social amplification of risk? | frewer et al. 2002
investigated effect of increased media reporting about the risk associated with genetically modified food on publice attitudes to the technology 1- survey Feb (98) before media attention to genetic modification peaked 2- survey March (99) when media coverage was at its peak 3- survey July (2000) level of meda attention was subsiding perception of risk associated with genetically modified food increased during the highest levels of media coverage but risk perceptions subsequently reduce as coverage diminished