Reasoning and Decision Making

Question 1

ideal world

Answer 1

people can rationally evaluate the information available to them, weigh the options, and make a logical decision about which course of action to take

Question 2

actual world

Answer 2

people are subject to a host of unconscious biases that exert a powerful influence over our devisions

Question 3

Deductive reasoning

Answer 3

process of reasoning from one or more general statements to reach a logically certain conclusion

conclusions follow directly from premises using rules of logic

guaranteed to be correct if you follow the rules

Question 4

Inductive reasoning

Answer 4

reasoning that constructs or evaluates general propositions that are derived from specific examples

probable guesses made on the basis of prior evidence, not guaranteed to be correct

Question 5

Syllogysm

Answer 5

2 premises followed by a conclusion

Question 6

Atmosphere effect

Answer 6

being influenced by the global impression or feel of the premises

Question 7

Belief Bias

Answer 7

involves a tendency to accept invalid conclusions if they are believable

reject valid conclusions when they are unbelievable

Question 8

Conditional statement

Answer 8

If X, then Y.

the first part provides a condition under which the second part is guaranteed to be true

Question 9

Modus tollens

Answer 9

If it is raining, then Alicia gets wet
Alicia does not get wet
It is not raining

VALID

Question 10

denial of the antecedent

Answer 10

if it is raining, then alicia gets wet
it is not raining
Therefore, alicia does not get wet

INVALID

Question 11

Wason 4 card selection

Answer 11

each card has a number on one side, and letter on the other

If G on one side, 3 on the other side.
G, 3, P, 7
7 is only one that has potential to disprove the rule

Question 12

problem with induction

Answer 12

induction is only guaranteed if we have experienced all possible instances

Question 13

Confirmation bias

Answer 13

more responsive to evidence that confirms one’s beliefs. SImilar to over-regularization by schemata.
Essentially ignore data that disconfirms your data

Question 14

Decision making

Answer 14

goal is to get the most/best stuff as often as possible

Involves utility and probability

Question 15

Utility THeory

Answer 15

a rational person should try to calculate the expected utility of each option and choose the option that maximizes it

Question 16

Expected value

Answer 16

probability of particular outcome x value of the outcome

Question 17

Prospect Theory

Answer 17

a bigger impact of losses than of gains. we are more loss adverse.

Question 18

More options

Answer 18

often leads to not making a decision

more doctors choose to refer surgery when there are more decisions to choose from

difficult to weigh decisions, waiting is better than living with the regret of making a bad decision

Question 19

Framing effects

Answer 19

people tend to interpret a choice in terms of the given frame of reference

combines with the asymmetry of the utility function to cause behavior that differs depending on the description

Question 20

Risk aversion

Answer 20

when framed in terms of potential gains

Question 21

Risk seeking

Answer 21

when framed in terms of potential losses

Question 22

Trolley dilemma

Answer 22

trolley is approaching with 5 people tied to tracks. there is a switch that can cause trolley to change tracks where only 1 person is tied. do you flip?

issue of emotion and decision making (impersonal vs personal)