Statistical Approaches Flashcards
Why do we take a sample mean?
Because we are interested in the mean of the population, and to see how close out sample mean is to the true mean
Standard error of the mean (SEM)
- Informs us about how close the sample mean is to the actual mean
- SEM is an estimate of the average variation of the sample mean
What is the effect of a larger sample on the SEM?
The SEM will decrease
How do we calculate SEM?
Standard deviation/√No. sampled
What does the SEM allow us to do?
Calculate confidence intervals
What question does calculating the SEM answer?
How close is this sample mean to the actual mean (mean in the target population)?
What is the interpretation of a 95% confidence interval?
- The interval from… to… has a 95% chance (probability) to contain the true population mean
- AKA; Given repeated sampling and calculation of 95% confidence
intervals for each sample estimate, 95% of them will include the true population mean - However, up to 5 out of 100 cases, the CI does not include the true population mean
What does a 95% CI NOT mean?
A 95% CI does not mean that the interval contains 95% of the data values
What is the effect of sample size on confidence intervals?
With larger sample size the confidence interval will be smaller
What is deductive reasoning?
Logical thinking process where specific conclusions are drawn from general premises or facts
What is the Null Hypothesis?
The hypothesis that there is no difference between groups
What is the Alternative Hypothesis?
The hypothesis that there is a difference between groups
How do we do hypothesis testing?
Calculation of the probability (p-value) that the ‘data occurring’ if the null hypothesis was true
What are the 3 steps in hypothesis testing?
- From the observed data, a test statistic is calculated
- The probability (p-value) of observing a test statistic as large or larger than that observed, if the H0 is true, is calculated
- The p-value is compared to a cut-off termed the ‘level of significance’ (called ‘alpha’)
What do statistic tests have?
A probability distribution (e.g. t distribution, z distribution, F distribution etc.)
Why should the level of significance be small?
Because we don’t want to reject the
null hypothesis when it is true (e.g. 0.05, 0.01, 0.001)
When is a p-value calculated?
AFTER the statistical test has been performed
What does the p-value relate to?
A p-value is always related to the hypothesis test (The NULL HYPOTHESIS)
What is the p-value?
The probability of observing a test statistic as large or larger than that observed, if the null hypothesis is true (basically indicating the probability of the ‘data occurring’ if the null hypothesis was true)
What is true of the null hypothesis if the p-value is very small?
- It is unlikely the null hypothesis is true
- If the p-value is less than alpha, the null hypothesis is rejected
- We say the difference is ‘statistically significant
What is true of the null hypothesis if the p-value is large?
- The data are consistent will the null hypothesis
- Hence we conclude that there is NO strong evidence that effect tested really exists
Why might be wrong with a level of significance of 0.05?
- As level of significance of 0.05 is a completely arbitrary cut-off
- A dichotomous interpretation of p-values (i.e. 0.05 or less = ‘significant’ and above 0.05 = non-significant) might be inappropriate
- A p-value of 0.04 means little different from a p-value of 0.07
Statistical significance versus clinical significance
- Statistical significance does not equate to biological, clinical or
economic importance - A statistically significant result may be of little importance
What is a major limitation of a p-value?
- A p-value provides no information about the likely size of effect
- We are typically interested in the magnitude of an effect, not just whether an effect is likely to exist or not