Technical - Level 2 Flashcards
(116 cards)
Contract Admin
Dunmore Road
What was in the PM’s Instruction?
Project name
PM name
Date
Contractor name
Contractor personnel names
Reference to EWN (if applicable)
Reference to CEN (if not a client led change)
Description
ISSUED on contractor communication system where issued to correct parties
(With PM’s signed approval)
I produced PMI’s for eg
1 Instruction for quotation following contractor CE Notification (eg delay costs caused by client delay in providing site access/inflrmation)
2 Instruction for quotation following contractor EWN* (eg ground conditions, pipe clashing)
3 Instruction to change works (eg new temp works design, stop works)
Note: PM can instruct a quotation without a separate CE notification, but the instruction must state within it both that it is a valid CE and to request a quotation
Contract Admin
Dunmore Road
What instructions are not compensation events?
Clause 15.2 – an instruction to attend an early warning meeting
Clause 32.2 – an instruction to submit a revised programme
Clause 40.3 – an instruction to correct a failure to comply with their quality plan
Clause 60.1(1) – an instruction to change Scope provided by the Contractor that does not comply with the original Client Scope
Clause 24.2 – an instruction to remove a Contractor’s person from site
Contract Admin
Dunmore Road
How were payment provisions dealt with in this project?
This project was a target cost project:
Option C - open book, agreed changes amend the target cost, same as Option E
Differs from:
Option A - paid on completion of activities
Contract Admin
Dunmore Road
How did you ensure the Housing Grants, Construction and Regeneration Act 1996 was followed?
Summary:
CON: 7, 5, 17, 7
NEC: 7, 5, 14, 7
JCT: 7, 5, 14, 5
7
5
14 or 17
7 or 5
——
-Contractor to submit interim application at least 7 days beforeduedate
-Employer to issue payment notice within 5 days AFTERduedate
-14 days AFTERduedateis finaldatefor payment (for NEC)… or 17 days in The Scheme
-Employer to issue pay less notice within 7 days BEFORE finaldatefor payment
NOTE: when the contractor issues an AFP, this is the payment notice, so if TW pay same amount they issue a CONFIRMING payment notice, but if they want to pay less they issue a pay less notice
7, 5, 14, 7
-If employer fails to issue payment notice within the 5 days, the contractor can issue their own any time. How long they take is how long finaldatefor payment is postponed. So if do it 1 day after then finaldatefor payment is pushed back 1 day.
-Though if contractor made an application for payment this automatically becomes the payment notice after the 5 days instead (this happens at TW) and the employer would have to issue a pay less notice if they disagree
-If pay less notice window is missed (within 7 days BEFORE finaldatefor payment) then that amount is due to contractor
Contract Admin
Dunmore Road
How did you undertake a cross sectional audit?
Summary:
-Subcontract invoices
-Staff timesheets
-Costs already included in fee
-All done with ‘common sense’ audit, focusing on areas which larger variances to target cost
———
As the paymentmechanisminvolvesadirectcostsplusfeearrangement,undertakingdetailedauditsofcostsclaimedwillinvolvethefollowing:
-Directaccesstothesuppliersfinancialsystems
-Auditofthesuppliersinternalgovernancetoestablishthatcostsbookedtoaparticularcontractarecorrectandcanbetracedbacktothesource.
-Establishmentandclearrepresentationoftheallowableanddisallowablecostsinaccordancewiththecontract.
-Anycoststhataredeemedtobeincludedinotherfeeswillneedtobesetasidee.g.financecharges.
-Checkthatsubcontractcostshavebeenpaidinaccordancewiththeirsubcontractsorelsethesecouldfallintothecategoryofdisallowedcosts.
-Audit accounts and records such as staff salaries and other defined costs in accordance with schedule of cost components
-The amount audited varied depending on cost category:
Subcontract 20%
Labour 15%
Rest 10%
Extra clause in contract saying how this is done at ‘TW’s discretion’
I requested substantiation for and then validated: staff timesheet reports (ME2J), on-site allocation sheets, invoices eg for materials/plant hire/subcontracted costs, submitted expenses,
Open book accounting:
-Use ‘common sense’ audit, so you audit the applied costs to a reasonable amount or only deep dive into certain areas where variance between planned and actual expenditure.
-By understanding how these costs are being incurred as they come in, will make assessing compensation events much easier
Contract Admin
Dunmore Road
What is the NEC early warning meeting procedure?
Summary:
-Clause 15
-Either party can instruct
-Both have obligation to early warn, but meeting not mandatory m
-First register within 1 week of starting date, first meeting within 2
-Then meeting intervals stated in contract data
———
Clause 15.1 states that: “The Contractor and the PM give an early warning by notifying the other as soon as either becomes aware of any issues that could affect cost, timing, or quality.
In relation to this, both parties have an obligation to early warn, but the meeting isn’t mandatory.
Either party can always instruct the other to attend an additional meeting as required, if something specific has arisen that cannot wait until the next scheduled one.
Under clause 15.2 the first Early Warning Register should be produced within one week of the starting date and the first meeting held within two weeks of the starting date. Subsequent meetings should be held at the new “early warning interval” which is identified within contract data (part 1) at tender stage.
Contract Admin
Dunmore Road
What is the final account procedure?
Summary:
-Following completion, 12 months to defects date
-Within this, defects correction periods (2 weeks)
-Defects certificate issued after the 12 months
-Within 4 weeks, PM goes through final account process by issuing final assessment setting out how much contractor paid (and any adjustments)
(Adjustments could be retention, withheld retention for defects, withheld cost no substantiation)
-Then has to be paid in 3 weeks
-Contractor has 4 weeks to appeal cost
———
-Defects date* for TW is 12 months after completion.
-Within this there are little ‘Defects Correction Periods’ which at TW is within 2 days for H&S related and 2 weeks for standard issues
-On the ‘defects date’ the ‘defects certificate’ is issued (listing any outstanding defects if there are any) or soon after (providing all defects corrected).
-Within 4 weeks of defects date have to go through final account process which requires PM to issue final assessment to set out how much contractor will be paid. Includes extra adjustments not relevant to actual/customer’s costs (project account. This could be eg any retention to be paid to contractor minus disallowed amounts for not correcting defects.
-This then has to be paid within 3 weeks
- If the PM fails to do so, the contractor can submit their own assessment
NOTE: Under clause 50.3 If contractor not happy with amount then have to challenge it within 4 weeks. If not challenged then deemed accepted and cannot go to adjudication/ arbitration etc. Draws a line under project
*Defects date and defects correction period can be amended in contract data part 1. Also note that ‘defects liability period’ is not a term used in NEC
Value of the adjustment to the final account must be agreed between the employer and the contractor and will form part the statement of final account
NEC/TW final account includes: costs taken from retention for defects, release of retention, amounts still withheld from no substantiation, liquidated damages, compensation events (should be done prior but e.g Radley College didn’t)
Note: RETENTION NOT TAKEN FROM SUBCONTRCT COSTS
53 - final assessment: new under NEC4 which DOES have a final account whereas NEC3 didn’t
Contract Admin
HS2 Audit
What are the changes between NEC3 and NEC4?
-Final account introduced (where PM has to assess final amount due within 4 weeks of Defects Certificate)
-‘Dividing Date’ introduced for CE’s (which divides when defined and forecast cost is used)
-Contractor now HAS to submit an application for payment (didn’t have to before)
-Changes in terminology eg ‘client’ instead of ‘employer’
-Contractor can recover costs for preparing CE’s
-Gender neutral wording
Contract Admin
HS2 Audit
How did you audit NEC Option A costs?
Summary:
CE’s implemented without:
-accepted notification or PM instruction
-accepted quotation
Extra activities without orders
Contractor claiming for expenses not listed in Contract Data Part 2
Invalid CE’s for ground conditions when taken into account site info
————-
CE’s without the proper procedure being followed, eg:
-implemented without accepted quotation/PM assessment
-Implemented without initial PM instruction
-Implemented in timescales beyond the NEC change control timescales
-Activity additions without proper works order being
-CE’s implemented for unchartered services in ground despite works information stating contractor had a geotechnical baseline report and had considered the risks
-Contractor claiming for expenses not listed in Contract Data Part 2
Contract Admin
HS2 Audit
How did you audit NEC Option E costs?
Summary:
-PM not notified of proposed contractors (no clause 26 mobilisation forms) that hadn’t been tendered competitively
-As above, staff rate changes with no forms
-Payment notices not within contract/construction act timelines
-No challenge of open book costs and timesheets not reconciling
-Contractor claiming for expenses not listed in Contract Data Part 2
-Adjusting staff rates without X1inflation clause
-Contractor utilising global staff in cheaper countries without passing savings to client
————
-In many instances the PM had not been notified of proposed subcontractors under Clause 26 notices (mobilisation forms).. where names and contract conditions of any proposed subcontractors are submitted and reviewed. So these were unauthorised costs because they were being instructed under the existing contracts with highest STAFF rates and and did not allow chance to be competitively tendered
-As above, staff rate changes without a Clause 26 form
-Large date variance between payment application, due date and payment notices. The contractor and subcontractor were same company and did not follow Construction Act
-Also cases where payment applications dated/recorded in system after the payment notice .. which makes no sense!
-No assessment/cost being allowed from applications for payment, so payment notice never different
- Lack of detail of activities staff members undertook
-Timesheet hours did not reconcile with ADO
-Contractor claiming for expenses not listed in Contract Data Part 2
Contract Admin
HS2 Audit
How did you audit NEC PSC costs?
Summary:
-No clause 26 mobilisation forms for new staff and subcontractors (not competitively tendered)
-Contractor claiming for extra expenses on top of staff rates x days by using NEC4 method of using defined cost + fee for extra expenses on top of their star rates.
but was NEC3 and in this only entitled to staff rate x days ONLY
(Only possible if listed under expenses, but they weren’t)
-Also not entitled to fee percentage on staff
———
-In many instances the PM had not been notified of proposed subcontractors under Clause 26 notices (mobilisation forms).. where names and contract conditions of any proposed subcontractors are submitted and reviewed. So these were unauthorised costs because they were being instructed under the existing contracts with highest STAFF rates and and did not allow chance to be competitively tendered
-Contractor claiming for staff costs as defined cost under schedule of cost components (which is what happens in NEC4 Contracts). However, NEC3 was being used so only allowed to do:
Staff Rate x No. of Days
So were claiming extra costs on top of the pre-agreed all-inclusive staff rates, as well as overheads. See other flash card for more detail
**SO MY AUDIT REVEALED THE CONTRACTOR WAS FOLLOWING THE NEC3 CORRECTLY IN TERMS OF USING PRE AGREED STAFF RATES, BUT WERE THEN GETTING THESE EXTRA EXPENSES ON TOP (WHICH WEREN’T LISTED) WHICH IS AN NEC4 MECHANISM ONLY
***ALSO REVEALED CONTRACTOR SHOULD NOT BE GETTING FEE PERCENTAGE ON THEIR DIRECT STAFF
-Contractor claiming for expenses not listed in Contract Data Part 2
Contract Admin
HS2 Audit
How does the mechanism for staff costs differ between PSC NEC 3 and NEC 4?
Summary:
-NEC3 uses: ‘time charge’ eg pre agreed hourly rate x hours done… which is ALL INCLUSIVE
-NEC4 does same but also allows certain ‘expenses’ on a defined cost + fee basis.
So subcontractor was applying for these on the NEC3 contract when expenses should be included in their rates
———
In NEC3 PSC a “time charge” refers toa payment method where a contractor is paid based on the actual time spent working on a project, calculated by multiplying the hourly rate of their staff by the number of hours worked, representing the cost of labor based on time spent
NEC4 pays these costs on a “defined cost plus fee” system where the contractor’s costs are assessed based on a detailed breakdown of allowable expenses listed in the Schedule of Cost Components, not just their time spent.
Both NEC4 and NEC3 PSC still have rates tendered for the consultant’s own people. The difference is that in NEC4 PSC these ‘people rates’ are subject to the fee percentage*. In NEC3 PSC, actual payments to subcontractors (called subconsultants) could be paid only if listed as an ‘expense’ by the client in contract data part one.In NEC4 PSC the amount due to subcontractors is always part of defined cost.
**SO MY AUDIT REVEALED THE CONTRACTOR WAS FOLLOWING THE NEC3 CORRECTLY IN TERMS OF USING PRE AGREED STAFF RATES, BUT WERE GETTING THESE EXTRA EXPENSES ON TOP (WHICH WEREN’T LISTED) WHICH IS AN NEC4 MECHANISM ONLY
***ALSO REVEALED CONTRACTOR SHOULD NOT BE GETTING FEE PERCENTAGE ON THEIR DIRECT STAFF
Note that these rules apply to the contractor claiming subcontract costs. In this audit, every cost was subcontracted. These were actually PSC subcontracts.
Common for clients to use NEC3 PSC way even on NEC4 contracts
Risk
What are the two projects?
1 Didcot Valley Park (FRAMEWORK)
As a framework (target cost) project, TW worked with the contractor to produce a pre-contract risk register
2 Woodstock WBS (COMPETITIVE)
In this project I calculated risks for the client at the estimate and cost planning stages.
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
How does root cause analysis work?
Root cause analysis is process of discovering root cause of problems to identify APPROPRIATE SOLUTIONS. It is more effective to prevent and solve underlying issues systematically than treating ad-hoc risks as they happen
So you:
-Note down a trigger/activator event
-Then what would cause that to happen, and its consequence on time and cost
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
How did you use root-cause analysis to identify project risks?
Workshops with PM and contractor
1 Note down a trigger/activator event
2 Then what would cause that to happen, and its consequence on time and cost
1 Line Stop Installation delay (more complicated than normal connections)
2 Failure of materials, delay from long lead materials, flow velocity too high
1 bridge design delay
2 Insufficient staff resources,
1 Ground remediation (flooding)
2 Rain due to work done in winter
1 Ground remediation (unstable ground)
2 Unstable soil conditions
*Need approval in advance of exact dates from both parties to shut off water supplies for planned maintenance
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
How did you identify generic project risks?
Used historical data to identify risks and then added a bespoke percentage
-Additional scope / scope changes eg design
-Delay to issue permit
-Unexpected ground conditions
-Not enough space for site compound
-Traffic management
-Design delays
Same percentages:
-Changes to legislation/standards eg H&S regulations for TW/Network Rail, TW asset design standards
-1:10 year weather event
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
How did you establish the risk ‘owner’ in line with standard risk allocation, and why did you do this?
Some events such as linesrop had different risk owners eg;
-Line Stop failure
CONTRACTOR RISK
-Undertake shut
CLIENT RISK CE(2)
-Supply of long lead materials (line stop)
CLIENT RISK (free issued) CE(3)
-Gas Mains
CONTRACTOR RISK for work, CLIENT RISK for accurate surveys CE(12) + 60.3
Flooding
CONTRACTOR RISK
Client owned risks/valid CE’s:
60.1(1) - PM instruction to change Scope (except…)
-60.1(2) - Client does not allow access by later of access date, or date on Accepted programme (AP)
-60.1(3) - Client does not provide something by date on AP
-60.1(4) - PM instruction to stop (or not start) work, to change Key Date
-60.1(5) - Client or Others do not work as per AP
-60.1(6) - PM or Supervisor does not reply within period required by contract
-60.1(7) - PM instruction dealing with objective of value or historical interest
-60.1(8) - PM or Supervisor changes a decision
-60.1(9) - PM withholds acceptance for a reason not stated in contract
-60.1(10) - Supervisor instruction to search for non-existent Defect (unless)
-60.1(11) - Supervisor test or inspection causes unnecessary delay
-60.1(12) - Contractor encounters physical conditions which…
-60.1(13) - One in ten year weather event
-60.1(14) - Client liability (seelistat clause 80.1)
-60.1(15) - PM certifies take over of part of the works before Completion
-60.1(16) - Client does not provide things for tests and inspections as per Scope
-60.1(17) - PM notifies the Contractor of a correction to an assumption
-60.1(18) - Client breaches the contract
-60.1(19) - Prevention event occurs-60.1(20) - PM notifies the Contractor that proposed instruction is not accepted
-60.1(21) - Additionalcompensationevents listed in Contract Data part one
——-
Did this because costs of contractor risks would go into target cost
TS owned risks would not, and only be added to target cost if they occur as CE’s
Note: customer also pays a % of contingency in estimate
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
How did you determine appropriate risk STRATEGIES?
Summary:
-Transfer: eg client better to hold ground conditions risk, or PAY CONTRACTOR TO TAKE ON RISK OF DESIGN PORTION eg Bridge
-Reduction - extra site investigation, order BACKUP LINESTOP MATERIALS
So TW transferred risk of Bridge design (more specialist) to contractor, but retained line stop delay risk as NST’s knew how to reduce it
All the risk that was leftover from the linesrop delay is the RISK RETENTION
—-
-Reduction: eg further site investigation to improve information, different materials/suppliers to avoid long lead times, using different construction methods.
-Whatever is the cost of leftover cost of the risk is the amount of risk RETENTION
-Transfer: Determine if worth paying a premium for contractor take on risk
On this project, TW retained risk for line stop delay
But transferred risk to client for ground conditions/remediation as client knew site well and confident they were good conditions
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
How did you mitigate the risks?
Summary:
-Site investigation for ground conditions
-Line stop: order long lead materials early, backup materials and protected
-Line stop delay: close coordination with operations, plan shut well in advance d
-flood risk: dewatering pumps on standby
————
-Long lead materials for line stop
Order materials in advance, have backup materials/suppliers in case of issues with main choice, keep materials protected on/off site or even order backup materials to keep
-Line Stop Installation delay (more complicated than normal connections)
See above, constant contact with operations/authorities as reducing flow a certain amount will require a shut from OFTWAT/council*
-Flooding risk due to rain from work done in winter
Dewatering pumps
-Ground remediation (unstable ground)
3 Inject into soil (soil stabilisation)
-Unchartered services
Extra site surveys
-Undertake connection shut
Focus resources on programme management and constant communication with operations
-Working around gas mains
Clearly set out areas where can excavate based on drawings, GPR surveys
*Need approval in advance of exact dates from both parties to shut off water supplies for planned maintenance
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
What is the use of the post-contract risk register?
Summary:
-Pre contract risks (contract data part 1 and 2) included in post contract risk/EWN register (doesn’t assign liability). Includes:
-Mitigafion plan against each risk
-Can add in new EWN’s
-Can add in new mitigation proposals and decisions made
Note: the register where ‘owner’ for each risk is listed and the quantified risk allowance is an INTERNAL TW REGISTER ONLY… not relevant to contractor
Can also ‘Close’ passed risks
——-
Prior to construction:
All the risks identified pre-contract are included in a post contract Early Warning Register. As this is a framework project we don’t have ones in Contract Data part 1 (client identified) and part 2 (contractor identified).. it’s just included in ‘works order’
Each risk includes:
-a description of the risk
-description of the actions which are to be taken to avoid or reduce the risk.
New early early warnings/risks that occur during the project:
-The Project Manager enters early warning matters in the Early Warning Register.
-deciding which risks have now been avoided or have passed and can be removed from
the Early Warning Register.
The Project Manager records the proposals considered at a risk reduction meeting and,
where decisions are taken at the risk reduction meeting, revises the Early Warning Register to record the decisions made and issues the revised Early Warning Register to the Contractor.
If a decision needs a change to the Works Information, the Project Manager instructs the change at the same time as he issues the revised Early Warning Register.
The Works Information requires the Employer and the Contractor to maintain other risk
registers. These other risk registers are not the Early Warning Register.
Contract Data Part 1 AND 2 allows both parties to list matters to be in EW register
Client could propose to add:
-Poor ground conditions
-Buried services
-Contamination
-Condition of existing assets
What is the benefit of listing them?:
-Collaboration, each party being upfront about what could happen and risks that need to be managed so both can work toward mitigation. Entering them into the Contract Data means both parties are aware before entering into the contract.
It does not assign liability.
SO THE RISKS I IDENTIFIED HELPED CONTRACTOR TOO.
Even if listed in contract data it still needs to be early warned.
Clause 15.2 requires PM to prepare the first Early Warning Register, so whilst the matter will be on the register, it won’t technically have been notified as an early warning,
It does not assign liability for the matters.
Does this mean early warnings are not needed for these items?:
Clause 15.1 says an early warning needs to be notified by theContractororProject Manager(noClientmentioned), if an even could increase cost, cause delay, or affect performance. The problem is, if you have an item in the Contract Data does it count as a notified early warning?
No.
The contract gets unclear here, but reading the wording provides clarity.
Contract Data - “The following matters will be included in the Early Warning Register”
Clause 15.1 - “The C and the PMgive an early warning by notifying the other…”
I.e. just because its in the Contract Data, doesn’t mean it has complied with the need to notify the early warning.
Why this impactsContractor’sspecifically
The problem is that if a compensation event occurs, and theContractornotifies it, theProject Managerwill check Clause 61.5 and if theContractor“did not give an early warning of the event which an experienced contractor could have given”…theProject Managerstates this in the instruction to submit quotes.
This means if theContractorhas had something happen which is an entirely valid compensation event, the PM can still determine that they didn’t notify an early warning about it (if they didn’t!) and totally change the assessments…
Jump to Clause 63.7 “the compensation event is assessed as if theContractorhad given the early warning”
Stop.
The compensation event is now assessed as if the early warning had been notified and the impact could have been mitigated, this puts theContractorin a very different position and they could lose out on costs they have incurred because the risk wasn’t mitigated.
How to deal with matters in Contract Data
First of all, as soon as the contract is executed and the contract has started, both theProject Manager, andContractorshould notify each other of all the matters included in the Contract Data!
This passes the first test of “give an early warning”
Protecting theContractorand ensuring Clauses 61.5 and 63.7 do not apply!
Clause 15.2 requires theProject Managerto prepare the first Early Warning Register, so whilst the matter will be on the register, it won’t technically have been notified as an early warning, and that is a must for the process to be properly administered.
Subsequent early warnings are then notified as per standard practice under Clause 15!
But wait, I also get penalised if its Option C or D?
Yes, if you are aContractorunder Option C or D, costs can be disallowed if they were “incurred only because theContractordid not give an early warning which the contract required it to give.”
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/early-warnings-contract-data-why-wont-protect-you-contractinstruct-jkfje?trk=organization_guest_main-feed-card_feed-article-content
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
What is the benefit of listing risks in pre-contract early warning register?
Summary:
-Collaborative effort for both parties to help aware and work together to mitigate risk
——-
-Risks identified by the Project Manager go in Part 1, those identified by Contractor go in Part 2.. to form EWN register
This provides:
-Collaboration, as each party is being upfront about what could happen and risks that need to be managed so both can work toward mitigation. Entering into Contract Data means both parties will be contractually aware to manage them
-Even if its listed in the Early Warning Register/Contract Data, if the risk occurs it still needs to be early warned as its in these to facilitate collaboration/addressing risks
-For example, client could benefit contractor/project by adding early warning information on: poor ground conditions, buried services, ground contamination, condition of existing pipes
-Note that this early warning register does NOT assign liability, the risk register to do this/calculate cost is separate
-However in the case of this framework project, TW/contractor worked together to quantify risks anyway.
Risk
Didcot Valley Park
How does the risk/early warning register work post-contract?
Summary:
-Post contract risk/EWN register (mitigation plan) differs from the INTERNAL TW risk register (quantified risk allowance, risk owner)
-Risk/EWN register updated with new risks and mitigation plans
-Risk/EWN Register only requires
description of the risk, and action to avoid/mitigate it – is there to help project and DOES NOT ASSIGN LIABILITY.
———
-The PM enters early warning matters (from contractor or themselves) in the Early Warning Register.
-If risks have been avoided or have passed, they can be removed from the Early Warning Register.
-On register, the PM records the proposals considered/decisions made at early warning meetings. Revised register is then issued to contractor.
-If a decision needs a change to the Works Information, the PM instructs the change at the same time as he issues the revised Early Warning Register.
Note: Early Warning Register only requires the description of the risk, and the action to be taken to avoid or mitigate the risk – it is there to help project and DOES NOT ASSIGN LIABILITY.
There is a separate risk register (done pre-contract) that does this and includes the cost impact, programme impact, likelihood, severity, revised likelihood/severity post mitigation etc. This is also updated during construction but more for expending allowances / closing risks
Even if early warning is in the register, if it occurs it STILL HAS TO BE NOTIFIED AS AN EWN otherwise contractor won’t be entitled to CE
During construction, contractor should identify and mitigate risks on site to help project. Overheads and key rates will be pre agreed at tender to stop both parties from taking advantage of each other when risks occur
Risk
Woodstock WBS
What are pre-contract risk you identified and quantified using event tree analysis?
Summary:
-Event tree analysis to QUANTIFY the probability
-need for dewatering: heavy rain, open excavations
-more TM: portion of project located in Road, main road
-change pipe route: poor ground conditions, utilities present
———-
Risk of design changing: so risk accounts for overspend on design activities. I advised client on potential risks of the design such as them not achieving planning permission for WBS location or changing pipe route due to ground conditions
So in event tree analysis, calculate probability by:
Change Pipe Route
Poor ground conditions - 0.5
Unable to remediate - 0.2
….0.5 x 0.2 = 10% probability
Need for Dewatering
Heavy rain in winter - 0.3
Open excavations - 0.8
… 0.3 x 0.8 = 24% probability
Need for significant TM
Proportion located in road - 0.4
Main road - 0.3
….0.4 x 0.3 = 12% probability
Note: These risks differ from post contract risks such as a CE for something in ground that wasn’t picked up by surveys and caused delay to completion date
Risk
Woodstock WBS
How does an event tree analysis work?
-Find possible outcomes from an initial event
-Start with small event and how it can cause an actual risk
-Opposite of root cause analysis
———
Similar to root cause analysis but used to quantify the probability of each event to get a final probability at end of sequence