Term 2 - theme 1 (2) Flashcards
IPCC - “uncertainty” assessed qualitatively
Charcterised by providing a relative sense of the amount and quality of evidence and degree of agreement.
IPCC - “uncertainty” assessed quantitatively
Using expert judgement of the correctedness of underlying data, models or analyses, then the following scale of confidence levels is used to express the assessed chance of a finding being correct.
The ‘Hockey stick’
Mann et al (1998/91) in 2001 IPCC report. showed a time dependent correlation of the reconstruction with time-series records representing changes int he GHG concentrations, solar irradiation and volcanic aerosols.
Criticism of Hockey stick
McIntyre + McKitrick (2003) - the data set used by Mann et al contains collation errors, truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculation of principle and quality control defects.
Wahl and Ammann (2007)
New reconstructions over 1400-1980 are devloped in both the indirect + direct analyses, which demonstrate that the Mann et al reconstruction’s robust against the proxy based criticisms addressed.
Climategate
Over 100 private emails and other documents stolen or leaked from UEA’s climatic research unit. Selected content of the emails were used by some to suggest that scientists had been manipulating or hiding data.
David Bellamy (2005) - New Scientist
555 of 625 mountain glaciers are advancing using Fred Singer as a source, but the paper doesn’t exist.
The Great Global Warming Swindle (2007)
Documentary film that suggests scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by findings and political facts, and questions whether anthropogenic global warming exists. Presents scientists, economists, politicians and others who dispute the scientific cause regarding anthropogenic global warming.
Alan Thorpe
Uni of Reading + Chief executive of UK Natural Emissions Research Unit - ‘there is no credible evidence that cosmic rays play a significant role…let scepticism’s reign, but lets not play games with the evidence’
The media and science in the climate change debate - Lomberg, B (2001).
The media play a central role in this connection because the world is so complex that we can no longer rely primarily on our own experiences. The media presents us with a lopsided view of reality. We feel we have sufficient knowledge to partake in the debate.
Beck (1992)
Risk society. The media portrayals of climate change can lead to Beck’s risk society.
Chandstrom et al (2011)
The ‘expertisation’ of science.
