Topic 5: Profiling and Classification

Question 1

Why is classification important?

Answer 1

important for theoretical development: classifying offenders into meaningful groups assists in the identification of between-group differences

guides assessment practices: knowing something about a given offender type informs the psychologist about relevant areas of inquiry

guides treatment practices: depending on the basis of grouping, or organizing principle, there may be common treatment needs

Question 2

Why would classification be problematic?

Answer 2

important individual differences may be obscured

knowledge base concerning group or type may be irrelevant to the patient in question

may preempt more meaningful diagnostic exploration

categorization (“labeling”) is often seen as pejorative: often used in legal defenses

Question 3

What are the defenses to the idea that classification is problematic?

Answer 3

humans have a strong tendency to categorize and will do so anyway

better to acknowledge this and proceed systematically, than to ignore it and do so haphazardly

recognizing commonalities among group members does not equal ignoring individual differences

Question 4

What are weak classification systems?

Answer 4

are devoid of any organizing principle
e.g., one group is defined on the basis of behavior, and another by some other construct such as mood or intelligence

individuals may belong to multiple groups

low psychometric reliability, therefore poor chances of survival

DSM-5-TR is arguably an example of this

Question 5

What are some specific issues or decisions where classification is relevant?

Answer 5

level of risk

institutional housing (roommate) decisions

degree of supervision required versus privileges

offender needs

treatment inclusion: D/A, anger management, medication, etc.

Question 6

Are between-group differences theoretically informative?

Answer 6

developmental trajectories/risk factors

circumstantial risk management post-release

Question 7

What is the Chaiken & Chaiken (1984) classification system?

Answer 7

8 “dimensions” based on past crimes

yes/no: assault, robbery, burglary, drug dealing, theft, car theft, fraud, credit card fraud

yields 256 possible combinations: but 10 of these accounted for 59% of inmates

what’s wrong with this: there is no rational basis, some of the crimes are pretty close together (theft or car theft)

Question 8

What characteristics describe a “good” classification system?

Answer 8

comprehensive: covers every offender

unambiguous: categories are clearly defined

statistically reliable assignment procedures

type distinctions are valid

sensitive to individual changes

treatment relevant

economical to apply

Question 9

What is the historical perspective of classification system?

Answer 9

systems based on impressions (clinical or administrative) have borne little fruit

systems based on a cohesive personality/criminogenic theory fair a little better

most attention is currently focused on empirically derived systems; these are the most testable and tend to make the most accurate predictions

Question 10

What are impressionistic systems?

Answer 10

an individual, or group of individuals, think they recognize a pattern or type among some members of a clinical/institutional sample

no theory or systematic method of measurement guides that impression

the essential features are identified after the fact

lots of problems arise concerning diagnostic reliability: prognostic validity tends to be very poor

Question 11

How is the DSM-5-TR an example of an impressionistic system?

Answer 11

although the diagnostic validity of the specific disorders has come a very long way since the original DSM, it is fraught with problems: personality disorders with “cluster B features”, many NOS categories, systematic disagreements, easy for lawyers to tear up during cross examination

like it or not, there are a number of personality disorders that go hand-in-hand with increased risk of criminal activity: most obvious is APD, BPD isn’t far behind in the B cluster, definition is highly behavioral, therefore predictions are circular

assumes discontinuity among the personality disorders: discrete taxons, these may nevertheless enjoy some empirical support

Question 12

What are theoretically derived classification systems?

Answer 12

typically stem from a developmental or personality theory

testing the utility of the related classification scheme really puts the whole theory on the line

relates specific attributes or points of maturation to antisocial behavior

may appeal to empathic capacity, social reasoning, intelligence, etc.

measurement instruments may draw heavily from concepts central to that theory: can introduce significant bias

Question 13

What is the Hunt & Hardt (1965) classification system called the conceptual level?

Answer 13

based on ability to adopt other perspectives

attempts to tap reasoning process more so than outcome

assessed via an incomplete sentences task

both of these systems represent efforts to match the treatment to the offenders’ need/level (responsivity principle)

e.g., lower conceptual level = more behaviorally-oriented interventions
higher conceptual level kids paired with staff more sensitive to manipulation attempts

showed favorable outcomes over general assignment

Question 14

What are empirically derived classifications?

Answer 14

mainly based in two statistical techniques: cluster analysis and factor analysis

Question 15

What is cluster analysis?

Answer 15

referred to as numerical taxonomy

groups subjects according to level of similarity as measured by variables selected by the researcher

Question 16

What is factor analysis?

Answer 16

essentially correlational

good for reducing a large number of variables to a smaller number

may help identify “underlying dimensions”

Question 17

What is the Megargee & Bohn (1979) MMPI based scheme that uses cluster analysis?

Answer 17

Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory

most commonly used clinical personality measure

has 10 basic clinical scales and 3 basic validity scales

clinical interpretation is based on individual scale configurations as well as profile analysis

Megargee’s cluster analysis of over 1200 convict profiles yielded 10 types

included 116 other variables to assist in profile description: demographic, educational, familial, developmental, criminal, prison behavior, clinical (from interview)

computer software was able to classify almost all profiles (96%); results have been replicated a number of times

predictive accuracy is in question; problem is compounded by relatively poor correspondence between MMPI and MMPI-2 profiles (about 60%)

other problems: high scale overlap, are 10 groups really needed? a smaller number might be just as discriminating

the profile deviation was atheoretical (as is the MMPI-2); therefore the results may be unique to the instrument; they are not theoretically informative on their own

Question 18

How is the Hewitt & Jenkins (1946) classification system an example of factor analysis?

Answer 18

behavioral data from 500 delinquent children (many variables)

settled on a 4-factor solution:
unsocialized aggressive behavior (UA): poor prognosis
socialized delinquency (SD): better prognosis
over-inhibited (OI): more likely to be mentally ill
physical deficiency: less interpretable

Question 19

What is profiling?

Answer 19

actually a collection of related techniques: psychological profiling, criminal personality profiling, criminal behavior profiling, investigative profiling, criminal investigative analysis

goal is to describe perpetrator(s) in order to narrow the investigative field

Question 20

What are the sources of information in profiling?

Answer 20

autopsy results

victim verbal reports

examination of crime scene(s)/photos

in the case of psychological profiling only, there are test and interview data

Question 21

What is criminal profiling?

Answer 21

not even close to being the advanced, precise science shown on TV: currently, relies heavily on intuition

idea is probably very old, but first formal attempts were made by US intelligence during WWII: wanted to establish a means of predicting the military behavior of known enemy officers

resurrected by the FBI in the 1970’s

best use is to direct attention of investigators at most likely suspects

in a sense, the process is akin to interpreting a personality profile: e.g., previous perpetrators that did ____ had ____ in common

as databases increase in content, the process continues to refine and improve

mainly practiced and used by large law enforcement agencies at present

seldom points to a specific individual

Question 22

What are the common general assumptions in criminal profiling?

Answer 22

“the murderer was probably a white male aged 35-45…”

multiple stab wounds suggest extreme anger

facial lacerations are deliberately inflicted by individuals that feel physically unattractive and have unsuccessful dating histories

age, gender, race, level of education, marital status, and degree of future risk are typical assertions made by profilers

Question 23

What are computer models of criminal profiling?

Answer 23

computer models are in development, and are beginning to demonstrate practical utility

this is an area where considerable advancement is likely

based on geographic location rather than offender’s identity

Question 24

What areas has profiling been applied to?

Answer 24

murderers
rapists
internet sex offenders
computer network intruders
thieves
arsonists
corporate and security fraudsters
various forms of terrorists

Question 25

Overall, how good is criminal profiling?

Answer 25

70% of police psychologists express discomfort with the idea more an art than a science Holmes (1989) < 50% of profiles cases are solved: may partly reflect a tendency to reserve profiling resources to most challenging cases

Question 26

What was the Pinizotto & Finkel (1990) study that compared the accuracy of profilers?

Answer 26

compared the accuracy of: trained FBI profilers, police detectives, non-forensic psychologists (not trained in profiling), university undergraduates (not trained as profilers) results were unimpressive: trained profilers did not slightly better with sex offenders, but no better with violent offenders

Question 27

What is reconstructive psychological evaluation (RPE) - psychological autopsy?

Answer 27

post mortem descriptions based on a known offender intended to add to profiling database diverse backgrounds make identification of common features difficult attempt to address dynamic, not just static features

Question 28

What is psychological profiling?

Answer 28

begins with a known perpetrator correctly though of as an assessment: probably done as part of a court-ordered report findings are added to a database test selection is critical Murphy & Peters (1992) MMPI results failed to discriminate between sexual offenders and non sex offenders; PPG test did a far better job moral: one relevant test is of greater value than many irrelevant tests

Question 29

What are some examples of geographic profiling software?

Answer 29

Rossmo (1995) "GeoProfile" software: based on analysis and prediction of movement patterns, highly statistical Canter et al. (2000) "DragNet" software CrimStat use Distance Decay Functions based on Journey to Crime Model

Question 30

What is the distance decay function?

Answer 30

will choose a location that is close to home but not too close

Question 31

What is geographic profiling software?

Answer 31

this approach to spatial behavior analysis yields a jeopardy surface superimposed on a topographic map: prediction are similar in accuracy probability is usually based on minimizing the mean distance from all known crime sites attributed to that offender probability of offender residence is usually color coded and/or shown as an elevation in the surface map is rasterized to calculate total distance from each known crime site to every possible point on the map; Rigel uses a grid of about 562,500 cells, Dragnet uses about 13,300 the actual formula for doing this incorporates the distance decay function and is algebraically sophisticated

Question 32

What are the two minimal criteria for profilers suggested by Rossmo (200)?

Answer 32

a minimum of three years experience investigating interpersonal crime "superior" investigative skill

Question 33

What is the circle hypothesis?

Answer 33

a serial offender's home location is most likely to be located within a circle defined (diametrically) by the two most distant crime scenes

Question 34

What is the Snook et al. (2000) study?

Answer 34

2 groups of undergrads, naive to profiling: instructed (experimental) and non-instructed (control) DragNet printouts

Question 35

What were the findings of the Snook et al. (2000) study?

Answer 35

DragNet did significantly better than either group in phase 1 experimental group did significantly better that controls in phase 2 DragNet and experimental groups did not differ in accuracy in phase 2

Question 36

What were the conclusions of the Snook et al. (2000) study?

Answer 36

neither extensive experience or a computer appear to be necessary biggest factor is knowledge of two heuristics subsequently replicated in a much larger study

Question 37

What is psychological crime scene investigation?

Answer 37

three classes of crime scene features: Modus Operandi (MO), signature (calling card, personation), staging crime scenes are classified as organized, mixed, or disorganized by investigators

Question 38

What is Modus Operandi (MO)?

Answer 38

the way the violent act was committed; operational characteristics time, place, weapon, victim characteristics, type of crime, location, method of entry tends to be refined over time and with practice; becomes stable eventually: conversely can de-evolve into sloppy, less patterned behavior

Question 39

What is signature (calling card, personation)?

Answer 39

features extra to the crime itself may become highly ritualized pattern of mutilation or property destruction, taking "trophies", leaving something behind, notes/writing, positioning of body, burning body or building to obscure evidence may provide more information than an unstable MO

Question 40

What is staging?

Answer 40

alteration made to the crime scene after the crime was committed: may not have been done by assailant, perhaps to protect dignity of victim e.g., trying to make a suicide look like a murder offender may attempt to psychologically undo, or reverse that act

Question 41

What are organized crime scenes?

Answer 41

evidence of planning: reduces chances of detection, allows greater specification of victim, may become quite cocky over time abduction, murder, disposal usually not in same locations

Question 42

What are disorganized crime scenes?

Answer 42

reflects the work of more impulsive, perhaps less intelligent criminals crimes committed in angry, or highly aroused state no movement of evidence (including body) from crime scene victims chosen more randomly

Question 43

What are mixed crime scenes?

Answer 43

features of both usually means a poorly planned crime fell apart

Question 44

What features are considered in psychological crime scene investigation?

Answer 44

point of contact primary scene secondary screen: intermediate scene, dumpsite/disposal scene

Question 45

What are the standard questions in psychological crime scene investigation identified by Turvey (2002)?

Answer 45

who normally goes there? how did they/could they have arrived? what is there, and what is absent that should be there? what activities normally take place there? what other criminal features are intrinsic to that area? why was that place chosen? did it require prior familiarity?

Question 46

What are the method of approach identified by Ressler et al. (1986)?

Answer 46

refers primarily to rapists may reveal information about perpetrator's relationship to victim blitz, surprise, con

Question 47

What is the blitz method of approach?

Answer 47

limits opportunity to work out a defense

Question 48

What is the surprise method of approach?

Answer 48

laying in wait knowledge of schedule may turn 2nd degree into 1st degree murder

Question 49

What is the con method of approach?

Answer 49

employs a ruse may involve repeated contacts over time

Question 50

What are hunting strategies identified by Rossmo (1997, 2000)?

Answer 50

hunter: goes out and gets a victim fairly close to home, e.g., in the same city poacher: goes into another town or city, doesn't operate from home troller: crimes of opportunity; victims are encountered while other, usually routine, tasks are being carried out trapper: lure/trick victim to a location where they have control (e.g., home) raptor: attack is immediate upon location of victim, characteristic of most serial predators stalker: watches, follows, waits to catch victim in a vulnerable, off-guard state ambusher: always works close to home or another prepared and familiar location

Question 51

What are motives?

Answer 51

can be difficult to determine revenge: usually a prior association between victim and criminal financial gain: may or may not have prior association, robbing on the street vs. fraud jealousy: romantic, business, academic power: sexual offenders, lose power in life, want to restore it, not necessarily pain or injury non-sadistic sexual gratification: wants sex, but not pain and injury is goal insanity self-defense: can sometimes go too far, never legitimate to use gun to defend themself