Unit 4 - Essays - Population Policy

Question 1

For your case study of one country’s population policy, assess the extent to which it has been able to change the rate of natural increase.

Answer 1

1. Initial success of anti-natalist policy

“Stop at Two” campaign dropped TFR from 6.0 (1960) to 1.4 (1980)

Combined incentives and disincentives (e.g. sterilisation payments, school priority, maternity disincentives)

2. Overachievement and demographic consequences

Policy worked too well → led to underpopulation

By late 1980s, growth rate <1.5%; ageing population and labour shortages emerged

3. Pro-natalist reversal attempts and partial gains

Pro-natalist “Marriage and Parenthood” packages (2001–2023) gave financial, housing, and childcare support

Minor TFR increase after each round, but 2023 TFR still fell to 0.97

4. Persistent challenges limiting recovery

Cultural inertia from earlier campaigns; delayed marriage/childbearing

Gender roles and high cost of living hindered success

Conclusion

Singapore drastically changed its rate of natural increase, first successfully reducing it, but later failed to significantly raise it again. Policy change was effective in direction, but not in sustainability.

Question 2

For your case study of one country’s population policy, assess the extent to which the difficulties faced in managing natural increase have been overcome.

Answer 2

1. Cultural and social resistance

Anti-natalist policy faced traditional pro-family norms; later pro-natalist faced modern urban lifestyles and individualism

Ongoing reluctance to have children despite incentives shows this challenge was not overcome

2. Economic barriers to parenthood

High housing, childcare, and education costs continue to deter births

Baby Bonus and housing priority helped, but not enough to offset financial anxiety

3. Gender inequality and work-life balance

Women bear larger childcare burden; long work hours persist

Pro-natalist policies tried to shift norms (paternity leave, shared care), but cultural shift remains slow

4. Demographic dependency and immigration as workaround

Difficulty in raising TFR led to reliance on foreign labour

While economically effective, this brings social integration challenges

Conclusion

Some difficulties like childcare access and financial stress were partially addressed, but major structural and cultural barriers remain. The majority of difficulties in managing natural increase have not been fully overcome.

Question 3

For you case study of one country’s population policy, assess the extent to which managing the results of population change is difficult.

Answer 3

1. Ageing population strain

By 2023, 1 in 5 Singaporeans were over 65; 25% forecast by 2030

Challenges: healthcare pressure, pensions, dependency ratio

2. Labour shortages and economic consequences

Low birth rate reduced domestic workforce

Government responded with foreign skilled labour and PRs—successful but raised social cohesion concerns

3. Reversing demographic decline is difficult

Pro-natalist policies failed to raise TFR significantly despite 30+ years of effort

Cultural resistance, gender norms, and financial pressures remain hard to change

4. Long-term inequality and gender imbalance

Anti-natalist penalties hit poorer families harder, long-lasting social inequality

Female sterilisation more common—gendered legacy of policy decisions

Conclusion

Managing results of population change in Singapore has proven highly difficult. Demographic shifts triggered by earlier policy created long-term, structural challenges that require more than policy incentives to resolve.

Question 4

For your case study of one country’s population policy, assess the success of attempts to alter the natural increase rate.

Answer 4

1. Anti-natalist “Stop at Two” – short-term success

TFR dropped from ~6.0 (1960) to 1.4 (1980); birth rate halved

Policy used strong disincentives and propaganda, which changed behaviour quickly

2. Unintended long-term effects

Continued fertility decline even after policy ended → 2023 TFR = 0.97

Indicates durable mindset shift and difficulty in reversing change

3. Pro-natalist efforts – limited impact

Marriage & Parenthood Packages (2001–2023) had minor short-term gains (e.g. 2001 TFR 1.41 → 1.60 in 2004)

Structural and cultural resistance (e.g. career-first women, cost of raising children)

4. Supplementation via immigration, not natural increase

Natural increase rate remains negative

Reliance on immigration masks failure of natural fertility recovery

Conclusion

Singapore’s policies were highly successful in reducing natural increase, but largely unsuccessful in raising it again. Attempts to alter the rate have had asymmetrical results: easier to lower than to raise.