Week 11 - Choice under risk and uncertainty, Asymmetric information, International trade Flashcards
(53 cards)
What is risk?
know the probability of the outcome
What is uncertainty?
refers to situations where the
probability of certain occurrences is not known
What tool do we use to study individuals behaviour around risk and uncertainty?
a lottery/ gamble
How to calculate the expected value of this lottery?
calculate the probability weighted average of the value from each possible outcome
EV = probability x outcome + probability x outcome
What does it mean if the expected value of a lottery is zero?
the lottery is fair, neither gaining or losing something
Suppose that a consumer has an initial income of £5. He can invest his initial income in a stock asset today
(Assume that the stock today costs exactly £5). Next month, the value of the stock can either increase or
decrease. If it increases, then the consumer increases his income to £7.5, but if it decreases, then consumer
decreases his income to £2.5.
The consumer believes that there is a 50 per cent chance that the stock will increase its value and 50 per cent
change that it will decrease its value.
The expected value from buying the stock asset is:
costs you £5
50% £7.5
50% £2.5
EV = 0.5 x 7.5 + 0.5 x 2.5 = 5
although expected value is £5, the lottery is fair because EV-Cost = 0
You play a lottery for free
30% +£100
70% -£30
What is the expected value of this lottery?
EV = 0.3 x 100 + 0.7 x (-30) = 30-21 = 9 (average earning) this lottery is unfair
How do economists classify people in terms of risk?
risk-averse, risk-neutral and risk-loving
What is a key issue in individual attitudes to risk?
a key issue is whether or not a person would accept a fair gamble
What is risk neutral?
a person who is only interested in whether the odds yield a profit on average
only about expected value and not about the risk involved.
They will always take a bet or investment if it has a positive EV, regardless of how risky it is.
What is risk averse?
a person who will refuse a fair gamble
prefers certainty over risk, even if the risk has a positive expected value.
They require a risk premium (extra compensation) to take on risk.
Even if a risky investment has a positive EV, they might avoid it unless the potential return is significantly higher than a safer alternative.
What is risk loving?
a person who bets even when the odds are unfavourable
enjoys taking risks and may even accept a negative EV gamble if there is a chance of a big win.
They actively seek risks with high rewards, even if the odds are against them.
Which individual risk would go for a negative expected value
risk-loving since there is a small chance of still winning
What is asymmetric information?
a situation in which one side of an economic relationship has better information than the other
This can influence how individuals with different risk preferences approach decisions involving positive expected value (EV) risks
What are the 2 different types of asymmetric information than an economic decision maker might lack but desire?
- Hidden characteristics
- Hidden actions
What are hidden characteristics?
things that one side of a transaction knows about itself that the other side would like to know but doesn’t know
1) sellers are better informed
2) buyers are better informed
What are hidden actions?
Actions taken by one side of an economic relationship that the other side of the relationship cannot observe
1) firms vs employees
2) insurance companies vs their customers
Example of price discrimination in an imperfectly competitive market with asymmetric information:
Consider the following situation:
A flight company flies a direct route from London to Rome to deliver air freight.
The marginal cost of adding passengers to the flight is £120 per passenger.
Two passengers: A businessman and a holidaymaker
Businessman is willing to pay £500 for the flight, but wants to stay for one day only.
If he has to stay for more than one day, he is willing to pay £250.
Holidaymaker is willing to pay at most £200 for a flight, and he does not much care about the trip’s length.
Asymmetric Information – The airline does not know whether a customer is a businessman (high willingness to pay) or a holidaymaker (low willingness to pay).
Price Discrimination – The airline wants to charge different prices to different customers to maximize profits.
Self-Selection (Screening Mechanism) – The airline must design ticket pricing so that each type of customer reveals themselves based on their choices.
Situation 1: Symmetric Information + No Price Discrimination
The airline must charge one uniform price to all customers.
Two possible pricing strategies:
Charge £500 per ticket
The businessman buys a ticket (£500), but the holidaymaker does not.
Revenue: £500
Cost: £120
Profit: £500 - £120 = £380
Charge £200 per ticket
Both the businessman and the holidaymaker buy tickets.
Revenue: 2 × £200 = £400
Cost: 2 × £120 = £240
Profit: £400 - £240 = £160
Since £380 is greater than £160, the airline will choose to charge £500 per ticket, even if it loses the holidaymaker’s business.
Situation 2: Symmetric Information + Price Discrimination
If the airline knows who is a businessman and who is a holidaymaker, it can engage in first-degree price discrimination:
Charge £500 to the businessman (who is willing to pay £500).
Charge £200 to the holidaymaker (who is willing to pay £200).
Revenue Calculation:
Businessman: £500
Holidaymaker: £200
Total revenue: £700
Total cost: 2 × £120 = £240
Profit: £700 - £240 = £460
Conclusion: With perfect knowledge about each customer, price discrimination increases profits from £380 (without discrimination) to £460.
Situation 3: Asymmetric Information + Second-Degree Price Discrimination
In reality, the airline does not know who is a businessman and who is a holidaymaker.
To solve this problem, it uses a self-selection mechanism:
Offer two ticket types:
A £500 flexible ticket (no restrictions) for the businessman.
A £200 ticket with a Saturday night stay requirement for the holidaymaker.
Why does this work?
The businessman values a short trip and does not want to stay over the weekend.
The holidaymaker is indifferent to trip length, so he will choose the cheaper ticket.
This forces customers to reveal their type through their choice of ticket.
Revenue Calculation:
Businessman buys a £500 ticket.
Holidaymaker buys a £200 ticket.
Total revenue: £700
Total cost: 2 × £120 = £240
Profit: £460
Conclusion: Even with asymmetric information, the airline can achieve the same £460 profit by structuring ticket restrictions to force self-selection.
What will a self-selection device do for an airline?
the airline can use a self-selection mechanism to address asymmetric information by offering a set of choices (tickets) that vary in terms of price and restrictions. The idea is that these choices will reveal the hidden characteristics of the consumers, allowing the company to maximise profits by tailoring its pricing strategy to different customer segments.
Example of self selection
For example:
(1) A £449 ticket that has no restrictions on when it can be used.
(2) A special £200 “holiday ticket” that can be used only if the traveller goes on a trip of at least two weeks.
Businessman is willing to pay £500 for the flight, but wants to stay for one day only. If he has to stay for more
than one day, he is willing to pay £250.
If he buys (1), his surplus is £500 - £449 = £51
If he buys (2), his surplus is £250 – £200 = £50
So the businessman will pay £449
The holidaymaker will pay £200
The firm will earn (£449-£120) + (£200-£120) = £409
Note: £380 < £409 < £460
Real-world examples of price discrimination and self-selection mechanisms in flight companies
Flight Companies (Price Discrimination Based on Flexibility)
Flexible Fare Pricing:
Airlines use price discrimination based on flexibility and timing. For example:
Short-term flight tickets (e.g., for business travelers who need to fly back the next day) are more expensive due to the higher willingness to pay for flexibility.
Longer-term flight tickets (e.g., for holidaymakers who are willing to stay for a month or more) are cheaper because the airline knows that leisure travelers are more price-sensitive and less concerned with timing restrictions.
This pricing strategy ensures that the airline captures as much consumer surplus as possible by offering different prices based on the consumer’s demand elasticity and willingness to pay.
Real-world examples of price discrimination and self-selection mechanisms 1850 french national railway
3rd Class Railway Coaches:
In the 1850s, the French national railway offered three classes of travel. While the 3rd class had very poor conditions (crowded, uncomfortable, and lacking amenities), the prices were very low compared to 1st and 2nd class.
This is an example of price discrimination based on quality of service:
The 3rd class ticket was intended for lower-income individuals who were more price-sensitive and willing to endure poor conditions for the lower fare.
The 1st and 2nd class tickets were much more expensive, with better conditions, targeting wealthier passengers who valued comfort and convenience.
The railway company was using vertical price discrimination to maximize profits from different customer segments (those willing to pay for comfort vs. those looking for the cheapest option).
- Auctions (Different Types of Auctions and Their Price Discrimination Mechanisms)
In the world of auctions, price discrimination and self-selection are inherent in the auction types themselves. Let’s look at three types of common auctions:
a. English (Ascending) Auction
Description: In an English auction, participants start with a low price, and the price rises as bidders compete to outbid each other until no one is willing to bid higher. The auction ends when the highest bid is reached.
Price Discrimination Mechanism:
This type of auction allows the seller to discover the highest willingness to pay through a competitive process. Each bidder reveals their true value of the item by submitting progressively higher bids.
The seller captures consumer surplus (the difference between what a bidder is willing to pay and the actual price they pay) by allowing the price to increase based on demand.
b. Dutch (Descending) Auction
Description: In a Dutch auction, the price starts high and decreases until a bidder accepts the current price. The first bidder to accept the price wins the item at that price.
Price Discrimination Mechanism:
In this auction type, faster decision-makers or those willing to accept a lower price will be the first to bid. This allows the auctioneer to capture higher consumer surplus by forcing buyers to reveal their reservation price.
This auction allows for quick price discovery in markets where time is crucial, and buyers are willing to make decisions on the fly based on how low the price drops.
c. Sealed-Bid Auction
Description: In a sealed-bid auction, all participants submit their bids in secret, and the highest bidder wins the item. There’s no visibility of other bids during the auction.
Price Discrimination Mechanism:
Participants are competing based on their private information about the value they place on the item, and the seller will receive the highest bid.
This type of auction encourages bidders to reveal their true maximum willingness to pay. However, since participants are unaware of others’ bids, they might offer a bid based on their perceived value, leading to potential inefficiency (especially if bidders overestimate or underestimate the value).
Real-world examples of price discrimination and self-selection mechanisms auctions
English Auctions: Common in art sales (e.g., Sotheby’s or Christie’s). The price of a painting or artifact increases as bidders compete to outbid one another.
Dutch Auctions: Used by flower markets in the Netherlands, where the price of flowers starts high and gradually decreases until a buyer accepts the price. Also used in government bond auctions.
Sealed-Bid Auctions: Common in government contracting, where companies submit their best price for a contract, and the one with the highest (or most appropriate) bid wins.
Conclusion
These examples demonstrate how asymmetric information and price discrimination are central to many industries, from airlines to railways to auctions:
In airlines, price discrimination is often based on timing and flexibility of travel.
In the French railway, price discrimination was based on the quality of travel and the class of the passenger.
Auctions use various formats to allow participants to reveal their true willingness to pay, and the auctioneer can capture the highest value through these mechanisms.
Each of these examples relies on some form of self-selection, where consumers or bidders reveal their preferences through their actions, and the seller or auctioneer can use that information to maximize profits.
When information is symmetric in terms of low ability and high ability workers
When information is symmetric (i.e., the employer knows the ability of each worker), the following happens:
Low Ability Workers:
Marginal Revenue Product (MRP): £200 per week.
Wages: Since their MRP is £200, they will be paid £200 per week because, in a competitive market, workers are paid according to their marginal contribution to the employer’s revenue.
High Ability Workers:
Marginal Revenue Product (MRP): £400 per week.
Wages: Since their MRP is £400, they will be paid £400 per week.
With symmetric information, wages align with the marginal revenue product of each worker, and the labor market functions efficiently.