WEEK 6 Flashcards

(39 cards)

1
Q

What is a continuous random variable?

A

A variable that can take any value within an interval (e.g., height, temperature). Unlike discrete variables, continuous values are measured, not counted.

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2
Q

Key difference between discrete and continuous probability?

A

Discrete: specific values; Continuous: infinite possible values within a range.

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3
Q

What is a Probability Density Function (PDF)?

A

A function that describes the relative likelihood of a continuous variable. Probability is found as an area under the curve, not a specific point.

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4
Q

Why is P(X = x) = 0 for continuous variables?

A

Because a single point has zero width, meaning zero probability. Probability only applies to intervals.

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5
Q

What are the two key properties of a PDF?

A

1) f(x) ≥ 0 (never negative) 2) The total area under the curve = 1 (100% probability).

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6
Q

Formula for calculating probability in continuous distributions?

A

P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = ∫[a,b] f(x) dx

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7
Q

Define the Uniform Distribution.

A

A distribution where all values in an interval are equally likely. The PDF is flat and constant.

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8
Q

Uniform Distribution PDF (not CDF) formula?

A

f(x) = 1 / (b - a), a ≤ x ≤ b

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9
Q

Uniform Distribution Mean Formula?

A

E(X) = (a + b) / 2

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10
Q

Uniform Distribution Variance Formula?

A

Var(X) = (b - a)^2 / 12

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11
Q

Example: A robot restarts every 20 minutes. If you arrive at a random time, what is the probability you wait less than 5 minutes?

A

P(X < 5) = (5 - 0) / (20 - 0) = 0.25 (Wait time is uniformly distributed U(0,20)).

P(X<x) = (x-a)/ (b-a)

X = random variable
a = minimum possible value of x
b = the maximm possible value of X
x - the time threshold were interested in

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12
Q

What is the Normal Distribution?

A

A bell-shaped, symmetric distribution, defined by mean μ and standard deviation σ.

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13
Q

Normal Distribution PDF Formula?

A

f(x) = (1 / (σ sqrt(2π))) * e^(-(x - μ)^2 / (2σ^2))

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14
Q

Why is the Normal Distribution important?

A

Many natural phenomena follow it, and the Central Limit Theorem states that large sample means tend to be normally distributed.

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15
Q

Key properties of a Normal Distribution?

A

Symmetric, bell-shaped, unbounded, and defined by μ (mean) and σ (spread).

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16
Q

What is the Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7 Rule)?

A

68% of values are within 1σ of the mean. 95% are within 2σ. 99.7% are within 3σ.

17
Q

Example: SAT scores follow N(500, 100). What percentage of students score between 400 and 600?

A

400 and 600 are 1 standard deviation away, so 68% of scores are in this range (Empirical Rule).

18
Q

What is a Z-score?

A

A measure of how many standard deviations a value is from the mean.

19
Q

Z-score Formula?

A

Z = (X - μ) / σ

20
Q

What does a negative Z-score mean?

A

The value is below the mean. Example: Z = -1.5 means 1.5 standard deviations below the mean.

21
Q

What does a positive Z-score mean?

A

The value is above the mean. Example: Z = 2 means 2 standard deviations above the mean.

22
Q

Example: If μ = 70, σ = 5, find the Z-score for X = 80.

A

Z = (80 - 70) / 5 = 2

23
Q

How do we use a Z-table?

A

Find the area (probability) under the normal curve to the left of the Z-score.

24
Q

Example: SAT scores follow N(500, 100). Find P(X > 600).

A

Z = (600 - 500) / 100 = 1, then lookup P(Z < 1) = 0.8413, so P(X > 600) = 1 - 0.8413 = 0.1587 (15.87%).

25
What does 'Standard Normal Distribution' mean?
A normal distribution with μ = 0, σ = 1 (converted using Z-scores).
26
What is the Exponential Distribution?
A continuous distribution used to model waiting times between events (e.g., time between phone calls).
27
Exponential Distribution PDF Formula?
f(x) = λ e^(-λx), x ≥ 0
28
Mean and Standard Deviation of an Exponential Distribution?
E(X) = 1 / λ, σ = 1 / λ
29
Example: If calls arrive at a rate of 2 per minute, what is the expected time between calls?
E(X) = 1 / 2 = 0.5 minutes
30
What is the relationship between Poisson and Exponential distributions?
If event arrivals follow a Poisson(λ) process, then the time between events follows Exponential(λ).
31
What is the Normal Approximation to the Binomial?
If n is large and p is not too close to 0 or 1, the Binomial(n, p) can be approximated by a Normal distribution.
32
When can we use the Normal Approximation to Binomial?
If np ≥ 10 and nq ≥ 10 (Success/Failure Rule).
33
Formula for Normal Approximation to Binomial?
X ~ N(np, sqrt(npq))
34
Why do we use the Continuity Correction when approximating Binomial with Normal?
Since the binomial is discrete, and normal is continuous, we adjust by 0.5 when finding probabilities.
35
Example: A factory rejects 7% of screens. If 500 are made daily, what is the expected number rejected?
E(X) = np = 500(0.07) = 35
36
Example: If GMAT scores follow N(500, 100), what score is needed to be in the top 10%?
Find Z = 1.28 (90th percentile). Solve for X: X = μ + Zσ = 500 + (1.28)(100) = 628
37
What is a Normal Probability Plot?
A graph used to check if a dataset follows a normal distribution. If the points form a straight line, data is normal.
38
What is the Central Limit Theorem (CLT)?
The sampling distribution of the mean becomes normal as the sample size increases, regardless of the population’s distribution.
39
Key takeaway of Continuous Probability Models?
Continuous probabilities require integration, and only intervals have probability. Many real-world processes follow Normal, Uniform, or Exponential distributions.