Week 9 Risk Analysis

Question 1

What is a risk analysis?

Answer 1

The objective is to describe risk. Presenting an informative risk picture so we can make decisions.

Question 2

What are the three categories of the selection of analysis method? Make sure you understand the description of each.

Answer 2

Simplified/crude risk analysis, standard risk analysis, model-based risk analysis.

Question 3

What are the 4 reasons we should use risk analysis?

Answer 3

1. Establish an understanding of consequences and uncertainties
2. Systematise and describe the knowledge and lack of knowledge
3. Identify factors, conditions, activities, systems, components that are critical w.r.t risk
4. Compare different alternatives and solutions

Question 3

Risk management is about balancing the conflicts in… (two answers)

Answer 3

1. Exploring opportunities
2. Avoiding losses, accidents and disasters

Question 4

What are examples of possible consequences after doing a consequence analysis?

Answer 4

Economic loss, number of fatalities, number of people affected (these are obviously based on the system you are looking at)

Question 4

A direct risk is..?

Answer 4

A direct link between a hazard and an element at risk that is exposed and vulnerable.

Question 4

4 things to understand when decision making with uncertainty:

Answer 4

1. The situation
2. Goal-setting, preferences, and performance measure
3. Decision criteria
4. Review and judgement by the decision-maker

Question 4

An indirect risk is..?

Answer 4

Removed from a hazard eg. impacts on mental health, disruptions to supply chains, migration, social wellbeing, and cohesion

Question 5

Risk is not inherently tied to probability because (4 reasons)

Answer 5

1. Assumptions can conceal important aspects of risk and uncertainties
2. Presume existence of probability models
3. The probabilities can be the same, but the knowledge they are built on is strong or weak
4. Surprises occur

Question 6

What 4 things can we do to avoid surprises?

Answer 6

1. Provide an overview of the assumptions made
2. Assess the risk from deviations to those assumptions
3. Try to reduce the assumptions that have the largest impact on the risk
4. Engage a range individuals and perspectives in the process

Question 7

In a risk description, what do C, Q, and K stand for?

Answer 7

C - the consequences
Q - the measure of uncertainty
K - the details of the background knowledge