1- Intro to Reasoning and Decision Making Flashcards
What is heuristic thinking?
How people estimate probabilities and how people make judgement under uncertain conditions
Are heuristics always effective?
They are insufficient under certain conditions
What is reasoning?
How we make decisions/solve problems, and draw conclusions
Why is our reasoning flawed?
Because we lack processing power so use heuristics
What is the confirmation bias?
Tendency to focus on information that supports your opinion and ignore information that doesn’t
What is the Gambler’s fallacy?
The incorrect belief that, if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future
What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?
Those who are most incompetent are also less able to accurately assess their own ability/knowledge
