The Business Cycle
the idea that the economy had a line that can determine the economy’s GDP over time
Peak
unemployment low, spending & confidence high,
What comes after a peak?
Recession, unemployment goes up and spending falls,
Trough
the lowest the GDP
What happens after a trough?
The economy recovery
Does a trough mean recession?
No
What is negative output gap
unemployment high, economy sluggish
What is a positive output gap?
economy is expanding quickly, a lot of spending, a lot of inflation, econ overheating
What is wrong with looking at the economy in the business cycle?
Doesn’t reflect the human cost of economic downturn
It suggests the economy fluctuates consistently, and predictable