C14) Voting Behaviour Flashcards
1
Q
what is psephology?
A
the study of elections & trends in voting
2
Q
what are long term/ social factors
A
refer to stable & usually unchanging differences between ppl, such as class, age, gender, ethnicity etc
3
Q
what are short term factors?
A
- volatile & changeable influences, such as rational decision making, reputations, the state of the economy, the media
4
Q
what classifications are w/c and m/c?
A
- A & B- M/C
- D & E - W/C
5
Q
what past evidence supports the notion of class alignment?
A
- 1964:
- lab- 64% of DEv
- cons- 78% of ABv
- peter pulzer - pol scientist- ‘class is the basis of british party politics; al else is embelllllishment & detail
6
Q
wat are teh possible reasons behind class dealignment?
A
- both maj Ps developed strong & deep roots within communities- culture for v for 1 P or other
- selfish reasons- instrumental voting- voting for a P that beleive will do most for you eg lab policies to help w/c, cons thought to protect interests of m/c
7
Q
what evidence from recent elections shows that class alignment still exists?
A
- 2017: lab 59% of DEv (up from 41% in 2015, 40% in 2010
- bc of JC’s old lab ideas/ manifesto- to help w/c more & appeal
- Ps still have a ‘core support’ from soc class bases- 2017 cons >10% ABv than lab, lab 9%>DEv than cons/ 2024 lab ahead in all classes but esp in ‘lower’ soc classes
- advent of austerity= decline in incomes since 2008 crash- more class divisions & falling wages, dcrease in public services & impact & effect of Grenfel tower tragedy
8
Q
what recent evidence supps notion o class dealignment?
A
- 2019- lab 39% of DEv/ cons 41% DEv
- 2024- lab 36% ABv, 34% DEv/ cons 27% ABv
9
Q
what are the possible reasons behind class dealignment?
A
- ‘trad’ w/c- few working in heavy industry w harsh conditioins & a strong TU link, now >50% of workers in service industries- small units, relatively clean conditions, weal TU link& many women & parttime workers
- so a ‘new’ w/c w increased standards of living \& increased home ownership- many C2 think of themselves as m/c or ‘aspiring’ w/c
- ‘embourgeoisement’- adoption of m/c values & manners of groups trad w/c
- so Ps, esp after 1980s, have policies centrist & consensual- appeal to a wider class base
10
Q
what recent evidence shows social class is no longer a predictable measure of voting behaviour?
A
- lab 2017 evidence could be down to JC’s leadership
- 2019 cons higher pop among all soc classes, incl w/c- positioned themselves as pro-brexit- maj of w/c vs shared desire to leave EU- so salient issues more ip
- 2024 lab most pop in all- even A,B,C1- vs across soc held cons accountable for COLC & salient issue of ‘ec health’
11
Q
where was the traditional labour heartland?
A
- north of eng- trad w/c- class alignment
- ‘Red Wall’ of base supp
12
Q
how can the fall of lab’s ‘red wall’ at 2019 GE be explained?
A
- many N const consdered w/c areas, were pro brexit, so supported Ts who they thought would ‘get brexit done’
13
Q
what does the fall of lab’s red wall show abt signif of voting behaviour & whether its predictable factor of v behav?
A
- signif- clear geog pattern in way uk voted
- but stances on brexit, the salient issue, were the real cause behind it
- that n seats changed so quickly from lab to cons shows that region is not predictable factor
14
Q
how is partisan alignment a significant long term factor in voting behaviour?
A
- party loyalties historicaly strong- 1964- 48% ID strongly w a specific party, in 2019- 15%- partisan dealignment
- declining membership of main Ps & decline in their vote share- 1970= 89%, 2024= 57%
- has been cause dby class dealignment, better political educ, Ps producing similar policies
15
Q
what is rational choice theory?
A
- idea that voters act like consumers and vote ofr party they beleive they’ll dervive most benefit from
16
Q
what is salient issue/ issue voting?
A
- part of rational choice theoru- idea that voters consider the salient issues most imp to themm when deciding how to vote/ judgement of Ps on this issue eg brexit or COLC
17
Q
what is instrumental voting?
A
- part of rational choice- idea that rational voters will vote for the party they belive will bring them most benefit eg increasing their wages
18
Q
what is expressive voting?
A
- part of RCT- idea that rational voters will v for which P they belive will bring most benefit to country as a whole, not just themselves eg best policy on environment
19
Q
what is positional voting?
A
- part of RCT- idea that rational voters will vote for a P they believe shares their position/ perspective on salient issues
20
Q
valence voting
A
- theory that voters decide who to vote for based on personal judgements of how far they trust the competing Ps to deliver ie to deliver effective leadership, deliver a strong ec, competent gov
21
Q
what are floating voters?
A
- voters not strongly attatched to one P or another and can be persuaded to vote for any P; susceptible to infl of short-term factors on v behav
22
Q
what evidence suggests floating voters are on the rise/
A
- stats on partisan dealignment eg 1964, 58% of vs said ID strongly w a party, 2019=15%
- evidence shows 49% voters voted for dif parties across the 3 elections from 2010-17w
23
Q
what is ‘valence politics’?
A
- known as competence voting; model of voting behav that emphasises that indivs vote based upon ppls judgements of the overall competence of the rival pol Ps
24
Q
what valence factors/ short term are there?
A
- policies/ maifestos
- conduct of campaigns
- governing party competence
- teh economy
25
arguements for opps winning GEs?
opps win:
- battle of brands as gov runs out of ideas - lab against T's 'back to basics' slogan & trad values focus fails to produce visionary agenda, tb;s third way preffered by public
- effective campaigns
- win over media & so voters
26
arguements for governments losing GEs?
- imp of effectiveness of opps campaigns should not be exaggerated as tirig of Ps in gov & personalities in gov- largely predicted lab would win & callaghan remained the more popular leader
- electorate known to punish failure & misconduct
- opp winning the media- not always leaders eg callaghan more pop than MT, who was seen as condescending
- gov's competence, handling of ec & ingteranal conflicts
27
how does age effect voting behav?
- every 10 years older u are, increased by 9% likeliness you'll vote tory
- lab won 56% votes from 18-24 (21% T)
- cons won 67% from 65+ (lab 14%)
- younger ppl tend to be progressive & left-leaning
- older- right wing & economically self-interested
- so link to Ps, wholl offer for dif age groups, eg 2017 jc abolish tuition fees
28
how is ethnicity not v influential as a factor determining voting behav?
- explained as instrumental- BME vs tend to be from more w/c areas & white in affluent/ rural areas
29
