Chapter 11:

Question 0

Fallacies of Probability Definition:

Answer 0

Fallacy: pattern of failed relation (bad arg).

Question 1

Probability (3):

Answer 1

1. Concerns items about which we are not certain
2. Determine the strength of beliefs or strength of args.
3. Always appear in life. (health, econ, sports).

Question 2

Gambler’s Fallacy:

Answer 2

Idea that one is due for a run of good luck:.
Ex. After losing so much, one’s card is bound to come.
* Don’t mistake this for fallacy of large numbers

Question 3

Fallacy of Large numbers:

Answer 3

The more trials, the more our predictions should match the facts.

Question 4

Gambler’s Fallcy can also be a result of _____ Indepedent vs. ___________ variables.

Answer 4

confusing, dependent.

Question 5

*If propbability of something is very low, we should not think it __________ if it takes place

Answer 5

Extraordinary (things that don’t usually happen, and if happens, is huge). (good luck).

Question 6

Heuristic Definition:
Can Incorporate _____
_________ seem to be systematic and seem to be unaware of them.

Answer 6

General strategy for coming to decision about some matter.

ex. Rule of thumb thought they are accurate for most parts.

Question 7

Representativeness Heuristic:

Answer 7

Mistake where we rely on an especially salient or noteworthy description and ignored relevant factors.

Question 8

Availability Heuristic Definition:

When we want to estimate size of a category or frequency of an event we often make _______

Answer 8

Mistake which stems from the ease with which instances come to mind.

*Mistakes.

Question 9

Because in an availability heuristic, certain events are more salient (often), they more _____ come to _______.

Answer 9

easily, mind.

Question 10

Priori Probability Definition:

Answer 10

Prior to experience (without reference to any event to the empirical world.) By reasoning about circumstances, we can estimate probabilities.