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Flashcards in Chapter 4 Deck (66):
1

Economic Forecasts:

Planning indicators that are valuable in helping organiations prepare medium- to long-range forecasts.

2

Technological forecasts

Long-term forecasts concerned with the rates of technological progress.

3

Demand forecasts:

Projections of a company's sales for each time period in the planning horizon.

4

Quantitative forecasts:

Forecasts that employ mathematical modeling to forecast demand.

5

Qualitative forecasts:

Forecasts that incorporate such factors as the decision maker's intuition, emotions, personal experiences, and value system.

6

Jury of executive opinion:

A forecasting technique that uses the opinion of a small group of high-level managers to form a group estimate of demand.

7

Delphi method:

A forecasting technique using a group process that allows experts to make forecasts.

8

sales force composite:

a forecasting technique based on salesperson's estimates of expected sales.

9

market survey:

a forecasting method that solicits input from customers or potential customers regarding future purchasing plans.

10

time series:

a forecasting technique that uses a series of past data points to make a forecast.

11

sales force composite:

a forecasting technique based on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

12

market survey:

a forecasting method that solicits input from customers or potential customers regarding future purchasing plans.

13

time series:

a forecasting technique that uses a series of past data points to make a forecast.

14

naive approach:

a forecasting technique which assumes that demand in the next period is equal to demand in the most recent period.

15

moving averages

a forecasting method that uses an average of the N most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

16

exponential smoothing

a weighted-moving average forecasting technique in which data points are weighted by an exponential function.

17

smoothing constant

the weighting factor used in an exponential smoothing forecast, a number greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.

18

mean absolute deviation (MAD)

a measure of the overall forecast error for a model

19

mean squared error (MSE)

the average of the squared differences between the forecasted and observed values

20

mean absolute percent error (MAPE)

the average of the absolute differences between the forecast and actual values, expressed as a percent of actual values.

21

trend projection:

a time-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the line into the future for forecasts.

22

seasonal variations:

regular upward or downward movements in a time series that tie to recurring events

23

cycles:

patterns in the data that occur ever several years.

24

linear-regression analysis:

a straight-line mathematical model to describe the functional relationships between independent and dependent variables.

25

standard error of the estimate:

a measure of variability around the regression line - its standard deviation

26

coefficient of correlation:

a measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables.

27

coefficient of determination:

a measure of the amount of variation in the dependent variable about its mean that is explained by the regression equation.

28

multiple regression:

an associative forecasting method with more than one independent variable

29

tracking signal:

a measurement of how well a forecast is predicting actual values.

30

bias:

a forecast that is consistently higher or consistently lower than actual values of a time series.

31

adaptive smoothing:

an approach to exponential smoothing forecasting in which the smoothing constant is automatically changed to keep errors to a minimum

32

focus forecasting:

forecasting that tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

33

Which of the following is appropriate for stable supply processes and functional products?

efficient supply chains

34

The trend in organizations is to place the supply chain management function:

at the same level as the other major functions.

35

Which is NOT a reason that companies are depending more on their suppliers?

more control over their suppliers

36

Which of the following is NOT identified as a requirement for a successful supply chain?

flexibility from multiple sourcing

37

Which of the following is typically NOT performed by the purchasing function?

schedule the processing of raw materials into final products.

38

Which of the following is a supply characteristic of evolving supply processes?

more yield problems.

39

Which of the following is NOT a benefit of supply chain management/ Just-In-Time purchasing?

higher prices, but higher quality to the customer.

40

Disintermediation is a term used to define

using finished goods warehousing at the customer location to reduce delivery time.

41

Which of the following is a way to counteract the bullwhip effect?

using information technology to improve processes.

42

The goals of supply-chain management include attempting to reduce uncertainty and risk impacting.

Inventory levels, customer service levels, processes, and cycle times.

43

Which of the following is regarding supply chains is TRUE?

The structure of the supply chain can vary dramatically, even within an industry.

44

Which of the following is NOT a factor impacting the supply chain?

Need for more frequent competitive bidding.

45

What are the major causes of the bullwhip effect?

Demand forecast updating
order batching
price fluctuations
rationing/gaming

46

Business-to-Business marketplaces have enabled B2B to be one of the fastest growing segments on the internet because B2:

Marketplaces help firms to save on the costs of their purchased goods.

47

Just-in-time/Supply chain management purchasing requires the following condition:

cooperation between purchasing and suppliers.

48

Which of the following is appropriate for stable supply processes and innovative products?

responsive supply chains

49

Which of the following is a demand characteristic of functional products?

high forecast accuracy

50

Supply-chain management refers to:

managing the flow of information, material, and services from supplier to the end customer.

51

Purchased items typically account for more than what % of cost of goods sold?

60

52

If two potential suppliers can deliver a part with the same quality and prices, the selection should be based on:

the capabilities and flexibilities of the firms.

53

What kind of integration refers to owning or controlling sources of raw materials and components.

Backward

54

Which of the following is a supply characteristic of stable supply processes?

fewer yield problems.

55

Which of the following is a critical element of supply chain management/just-in-time purchasing?

smaller lot sizes.

56

Items that are used continuously in production processes for which there is a fairly long-term demand should be purchased by:

long term purchasing agreement

57

Which of the following is a reason for the recent focus on supply chain issues?

companies are concentrating their resources on core competencies.

58

What are the seven steps in the forecasting system?

1. determine the use of the forecast
2. select the items to be forecasted
3. determine the time horizon of the forecast
4. select the forecasting model(s)
5. gather the data needed to make the forecast
6. make the forecast
7. validate and implement the results

59

Forecasting time horizons include:

long range, medium range, and short range.

60

Qualitative methods of forecasting include:

sales force composite, jury of executive opinion, and consumer market survey.

61

The difference between a moving-average model and an exponential smoothing model is that

exponential smoothing is a weighted moving-average model in which all prior values are weighted with a set of exponentially declining weights.

62

Three popular measures of forecast accuracy are:

mean absolute deviation
mean squared error
mean absolute percent error

63

Average demand for iPods in the Rome,Italy, Apple store is 800 units per month. The May monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally adjusted sales forecast for May?

1000 units

64

The main difference between simply and multiple regression is:

simple regression has only one independent variable

65

The tracking signal is the:

ratio of the cumulative error to MAD

66

Forecasting:

The art and science of predicting future events.