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Flashcards in Eurocrisis Deck (12):

Wall Street Crash

1. 1929
2. No regulation of the banking sector
3. The Glass-Steagall act is introduced in 1933 - Clinton gets rid of it in 1999
4. People borrow from the banks - The banks group these loans in an investment product - These investment products are offered to investors with different interest rates depending on the risk - Banks are investing their own revenues
5. Banks now also offer NINJA loans (people can borrow to easily)
6. Rating agencies classify it AAA


Housing bubble

1. 2005
2. Credit is easy - People borrow too much - People buy houses - The price increases
3. The federal banking increases the interest rates for loans - People cannot pay them anymore - People sell their houses - Price goes down - People cannot repay their loans


Lehman Brothers

1. 2008
2. The banks and the investors are not getting their money - Lehman Brothers crash
3. Everyone is interconnected so they all crash - Because they do not trust each other and won't buy each other's debts
4. Banks do not offer credit anymore - No more investment


Why this recklessness in the US?

1. Competition
2. Blindness
3. 'Too big to fail'


What were the different construction failures of the €? N°1

1. One size does not fit all
2. Currencies must be converged enough (because not possible to devaluate anymore)
3. MS did not think whether it was actually beneficial for them to join because this had become a political project


What were the construction failures of the €? N°2

1. ECB controls monetary policy but MS control the budget
2. No compliance with the convergence criterion
3. Convergence on interest rates too means that certain MS can borrow a lot more


What were the construction failures of the €? N°3

1. MU but no EMU
2. Asymmetric shocks cannot be controlled if there is no budget control, fiscal union and banking union


Greece - 2001 to 2009

1. 1981 - Greece joins EEC
2. 2001 - Greece suddenly meets the convergence criterion - Goldman Sachs changed the debt to a different currency so it's not 'debt' anymore
3. Greece borrows more and more
4. 2009 - It is revealed that the deficit is much higher - Negotiations start to pay the debt


Greece - 2010 to now

1. 2010 - IMF gives €100B bailout
2. Bailout requires interest rate because of art. 125 TFEU
3. EFSF and EFSM are created (temporary, ad hoc, became permanent with the ESM)
4. Greece is downgraded - Cannot afford loans anymore - The investors agree to cut back the debt ('Haircut')
5. Austerity measures - 2015 referendum with new government - Passes anyways


Eurocrisis - 3 negative spirals

1. Between banks and governments - Banks are in shit - Governments must save them - Now governments are I shit - Negative ranking of government bonds
2. Between government and interest rates - Gov. borrows to save banks - Investors fear bankruptcy - Interest rates increases - Debt increases
3. Between savers, banks and government - People take money out of the bank - There is no more money for investment - Interest rate increases - Rating agencies downgrade


Why was it worse in the Eurozone?

Because budget and banking are separate - Governments cannot print more money - It can actually run out


What are solutions?

1. Short-term - EFSM and EFSF - ECB (OMU pledge to take over the sovereign debt)
2. Long-term
- Fiscal Union - One central bank + 1 central government to control budget + Strict budge discipline (Sixpack, Twopack, Europlus pact, European Semester)
- Banking Union - Banks must be more controlled + Safety mechanism for banks in need (ESM)
- Political Union - Creation of a finance minister?