Hoofdstuk 7 Flashcards
(32 cards)
expected utility (EU) theory
maintains that inferential behavior can be conceptualized as choices among alternatives, each with a probability of occurrence and a designated value. According to the model, people assess available alternatives for their likelihood and the worth of the outcomes that they promise (i.e., probability and value), calculate the utility of each outcome (the product of the probability of each outcome and its value), and choose the option that maximizes utility.
satisficer
make good-enough, adequate inferences and decisions.
optimizer
make the choice that maximizes expected utility (see expected utility (EU) theory), reaching the best possible inferences and decisions.
heuristics
are one kind of shortcut people use for judgments under uncertainty, generally used for strategies identified by Kahneman and Tversky, mostly relying on ease of bringing instances to mind, to reduce complex problem solving to simpler judgmental operations and meet the pressing demands of the environment.
availability heuristic
evaluates the likelihood of an event based on how quickly instances or associations come to mind.
simulation heuristic
makes inferences by constructing hypothetical scenarios to estimate outcomes, running events through in the mind chronologically to assess likely consequences.
Counterfactual reasoning
is the mental simulation of how events might otherwise have occurred.
Fantasy
envisions the future as filled with bountiful (unrealistic) possibilities (wishful thinking).
mental addition
describes simulations that increase the perceived likelihood of a potential outcome, easier than mental subtraction.
mental subtraction
describes simulations that reduce the perceived likelihood of a potential consequence.
anchor
describes, when judging under uncertainty, people reducing ambiguity by using an initial reference point, and adjusting it to reach a final conclusion.
framing
how a decision’s background context of the choice is described, and in prospect theory, often contrasting gain versus loss.
frame
within the perceptual symbol systems (PSS) simulator, integrates across experiences within a category, to create the simulations of the experience of a particular example on a particular occasion.
risk aversion
strategies avoid uncertainty when dealing with possible gains (e.g., money added or lives saved).
risk seeking
strategies approach uncertainty when dealing with possible losses (e.g., money subtracted or lives lost).
prospect theory
the decision processes involved when people compare options, focusing on frame of reference and subjective value function
Describes how psychological (subjective) values and probabilities differ from objective values and probabilities
reference point (also termed frame of reference)
is the internal standard with which people compare the objective value of an option so as to classify the option as positive (i.e., better than the reference point) or as negative (i.e., worse than the reference point); objectively identical options can be framed positively or negatively, such that an option perceived as a gain in one frame can be perceived as a loss in another frame.
frames of reference
or frame in judgment and decision making, is the way the problem is
described (see reference point).
the internal standard with which people compare the objective value of an option so as to classify the option as positive (i.e., better than the reference point) or as negative (i.e., worse than the reference point); objectively identical options can be framed positively or negatively, such that an option perceived as a gain in one frame canbe perceived as a loss in another frame.
subjective value function
plots perceived value against objective outcomes; the curve is S-shaped – concave for gains (reflecting risk aversion) and convex for losses (reflecting risk seeking), as well as steeper for losses than for gains (reflecting loss aversion).
Bayes’ theorem
draws on the prior overall odds (base rates) and a focal event’s likelihood to estimate probabilities of the event, given the prior odds.
base-rate information
are population characteristics (averages, prior probabilities, or proportions), or other broad-based general prior data, normatively but not descriptively used to estimate particular instances.
conjunction fallacy
overestimates the likelihood that any two or more events will co-occur, compared to their isolated likelihood; because their joint probability is the product of their probabilities of occurring alone, their joint probability cannot exceed the probability of the least probable event.
Judgments of covariation
judgments estimate how strongly two events are related.
illusory correlation
expects a relationship between two variables when none actually exists; people often overestimate their correlation or impose a relationship because of associative meaning or paired distinctiveness.
