define risk
the probability of reoffending and reconviction in the next two years
-the risk of serious harm if they do reoffend
seriousness
predicted future behaviours can be less serious compared to others
dangerousness
how undesirable the predicted behaviours are
examples of people at risk of harm
prisoners, children self
what makes a good risk assessment
- likeliness of it happening
- who they are going to harm
- mitigate risk
uses of risk assessmnts
reoffend and what type
treatment needs
treatability and treatment readiness
who uses risk assessments
police, courts, prisons, treatment providers
false negative
predict they wont reoffend but they do
e.g. Andrew Dawson, released based on risk assessment and killed two elderly neighbours
false positive
predict will reoffend but they don’t
e.g. Alice Johnson released after 22 years for non violent drug offences (Kim K)
Types of risk factors
static e.g. offending history dynamic e.g. attitudes psychological e.g. cognitive distortions social e.g. relationships behaviour e.g. impulsivity
Types of risk assessment
clinical risk assessment
actuarial risk assessment
structured clinical judgement
what is clinical risk assessment
- use own experience and intuition
- interview offender
- use all available info about offender
strengths and weaknesses of clinical risk assessment
strength
-assess emotional states in interviews (Menzies et al 1985)
-assess physiological and behavioural traits e.g. clenching hands (Berg, Bell & Tupin, 2000)
Thornberry and Jacoby (1979)- released 65% of 129 dangerous, only 11% reoffend
Weaknesses
- how accurate can someone be at predicting behaviour
- 2/3 predictions incorrect (Monahan’s, 1984)
- conformation bias= only remember info that fits their hypothsis
- public just as accurate as clinicans
- high amount of false positives
What is actuarial risk assessment
- risk factors assessed using a tool
- present or not
- given a risk level
- meta-analysis used to determine which factors predict recidivism
Strengths and weaknesses of actuarial risk assessment
strengths-eliminates subjectivity
weaknesses
-too rigid, lacks sensitivity to change, doesnt help prevent violence (Douglas, Ogloff and Hart, 2003)
-tool not generalizable (Scott and Resnick, 2006)
What is structured clinical judgement
combine empirically developed risk factors with clinical judgement
- most effective (Scott & Resnick, 2006)
- use benefits of both
- flexibility to make final judgement
example of structured clinical judgement
HCR-20
current mental, behvioural and emotional functioning
problems with risk assessment
- risk is different to dangerousness
- risk factors are different for everyone
- what classes as recidivism-> Grentekord (2003) 8 years after release: 30% prison or hospital, 13% violent or sexual offence
