Topic 7: Superpowers Flashcards
1
Q
Superpower definition:
A
- a country with dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, sometimes in more than one region of the globe at one time.
2
Q
What are the key factors which can help assess superpower status?
A
- physical size and position
- economic power and influence
- demographic factors
- political factors
- military strength
- cultural influence
- access to natural resources
3
Q
Physical size and position:
A
- important as they determine the area over which a country has potential influences.
- larger countries usually have greater resources and influence. For example Russia (17 million km2) is the world’s largest country and as a result controls significant resources - e.g. the Arctic region. Under the influence of Canada and Russia as they are the largest countries bordering the region.
- however Russia’s relations with neighbours are complex as there are 14 of them - varying from Norway to China.
4
Q
Economic power and influence:
A
-
5
Q
Demographic factors:
A
- population size can be key to economic success, e.g. by providing a sufficient labour force to generate economic growth.
- China and India use large populations as a source of cheap labour in manufacturing.
- large population spurs economic growth as it provides a market. E.g. the EU member states have access to a single market of over 500 million people.
- However a large population isn’t critical to power, e.g. Singapore’s population is around 4 million although has a major influence of southeast Asia’s economy through attracting investment.
6
Q
Political factors:
A
- few individual countries hold much influence in their own right. Therefore most have decided that greater influence can vary achieved by linking up with like-minded countries.
- in 1960, OECD began with 20 of the world’s most developed economies as founding members, and it now has 35. Its aim is to produce and promote global development by sharing common issues and policies.
- other international organisations have superseded OECD - for example G8 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, USA) and the G20. Moreover between its members it represents half of the global population.
7
Q
Military strength:
A
- major influence in deterring power. Most countries use military forces tool protect themselves against challengers.
- however, military is often less significant than national defence budgets and technologies. The USA dominates all over countries in terms of military budget and capability, with 37% of all global military spending.
- China has expanded its military and their focus ie on the security of the South China Sea. China aims to dominate the seas as far as First Island.
- many countries regard membership of the UN Security Council as the ultimate status in military power. It’s job is mainly a balancing act to approve military intervention only when the intervention is justified in particular conflicts.
8
Q
Cultural influence:
A
- ## increased globalisation has led to a global culture spread via multimedia. TNCs such as Disney or Sony. They dominate global culture by deciding what films people can watch, which radio stations they can listen to and what music is recorded and played.
9
Q
Access to natural resources:
A
10
Q
Hyper power definition:
A
- a completely dominant superpower.
- e.g. Britain from 1850-1910 and the USA from 1990-2010
11
Q
Emerging superpowers definition:
A
- countries which have already large and/or growing economic, military and political influence.
12
Q
Regional powers definition:
A
- countries who have major influence at a continental but not global scale.
- e.g. countries such as South Africa who exert power within the African continent.
13
Q
Hard power definition:
A
- where countries exert power through military force.
14
Q
Soft power definition:
A
- how countries can make themselves look attractive and appealing; therefore encouraging others to follow them.
15
Q
What is ‘smart power’?
A
- a combination of hard and soft power.
16
Q
Why is ‘smart power’ needed?
A
- military conflict often doesn’t go as planned and can fail to achieve aims
- soft power may not be enough to persuade countries.
17
Q
Examples of hard power:
A
- threat of military action
- deployment of troops
- military testing
- creation of economic and military alliances (e.g. NATO)
- the use of economic sanctions to damage an economy.
18
Q
Examples of economic power:
A
- economic or development aid from one country to another
- signing favourable trade agreements to increase economic ties.
19
Q
Examples of soft power:
A
- the cultural attractiveness of a nation, e.g. promoting positive ideologies
- the values and ideologies of some nations being seen as attractive
- the moral authority of a nation’s foreign policy.
20
Q
Why is military force kit used as much as it used to be?
A
- ideologies have changed. However, they do still employ the threat of nuclear power when they feel necessary.
- e.g. Russia 2022.
21
Q
Key examples of hard power?
A
- Gulf War and Afghanistan War
- Annexation of Crimea
- Ukraine and Russia
22
Q
Hard power example - Gulf War and Afghanistan War.
A
- US invasion involved hard power to achieve aims by force.
23
Q
Hard power example - Annexation of Crimea:
A
- in 2013 Russia’s actions towards Ukraine resulted in economic sanctions from the EU and the USA.
24
Q
Hard power example - Russia/Ukraine 2022 War:
A
- both sides using hard power while proxy countries are using both hard and soft power.
25
Soft power - UK (diplomacy):
- The UK has 281 diplomatic posts in 178 countries and territories
- Relationships have been built over many years through the existence of the Commonwealth and the former countries of the British Empire
- The popularity of the royal family and their role in diplomacy and maintaining international relations
26
Soft power - UK (culture):
- British literature - Shakespeare, Dickens, Austen
- Music - Elgar through the Beatles to Adele,
Art - from Constable to Barbara Hepworth
- The BBC is one of the world's most trusted broadcasters
- Television - Downtown Abbey and The Crown have worldwide popularity (73 million people watched The Crown and Downtown Abbey is viewed in 250 countries)
- Over 500,000 overseas students study in the UK each year - 1 in 4 countries around the world have a head of state or government who was educated in the UK
- The British Council reaches over 100 million people in 100 countries
27
Theories:
- ‘Heartland’ - Mackinder
- Rostow’s model of take off (1960)
- Dependency theory (1960)
- Wallerstein’s world systems theory (1974)
28
What is the Heartland theory?
- known as the geo-strategic location theory, argued that whoever controlled Europe and Asia would control the world.
- whoever ruled the most strategic part of Europe would command the heartlands, whoever controlled the heartland would control the world island, ie. Europe and Russia. Whoever controlled the world island ruled the world.
- the further away from the heartland a country was, the less influence it would have shown as the ‘Inner or Marginal crescent’.
29
What is Rostow’s model of takeoff?
- Rostow: economic supervisor
- war may divert sources from original plan
- provides governments clear course of development
- economic growth tends to lead to better jobs and living standards.
30
What are the five stages of Rostow's Take-off model?
1) traditional society: subsistence society, rural economy, agriculture
2) pre-conditions for take-off: specialisation, surpluses, infrastructure, needs education and skill development
3) take off: industrialisation, growing investment, regional growth, political change
4) drive to maturity: diversification, innovation, less reliance on imports, investment
5) high mass consumption: consumer orientated, durable goods flourish, service sector becomes dominant.
31
Problems with Rostow’s model?
- westernised model: cannot really be applied to all countries.
- very characteristic of US policy in 1960s - improving economy
- lacks environmental care - some may not agree with the model due to the drive to improvement. E.g. not supporting industrial revolution and high mass consumption
- what happens after high mass consumption? Some economies are not as good as what they used to be.
32
What is the dependency theory?
- developing nations are dependent in high income countries
- poverty is maintained due to low profits, therefore periphery countries rely on core countries.
- periphery and core countries.
33
Dependency theory - periphery countries:
- e.g. Kenya and Nigeria
- low income countries
- sell natural resources to the core countries
- experience negative terms of trade as they are selling low and buying high - leads to a net loss of income (kept poor)
- farming is a dominant industry
- tariffs and taxes on goods for periphery countries leads to further depletion.
34
Dependency theory - core countries:
- high income countries
- e.g. the USA
- using the natural resources, HICs manufacture goods, e.g. cars
- manufactured goods are then returned to periphery countries for higher prices
35
Problems with the dependency theory?
- quite limiting - which countries are periphery and which are poor. Doesn’t make this establishment.
36
What is Wallerstein’s world systems theory?
- a response to the dependency theory.
- aimed to introduce a middle stage known as the semi-periphery.
- its clear that countries can possibly climb the economic ladder and move between stages.
- looks at work system as a whole
- global understanding of TNCs. Interaction between different countries, e.g. TNCs in USA may interact with China, India etc. Western TNCs operate in LICs such as Zambia at low costs.
- the previous theory talks about resources however unfair trade rules may be placed on countries.
- FDI : China investing into Africa - semi-periphery are involved in exploitation.
37
Problems with World Systems Theory?
- still categories countries into core, semi-periphery and periphery.
- narrow: inequalities exist within certain countries, e.g. China. Therefore it isn’t accurate.
38
What is the Kondratieff Waves?
- cycle of economic influences
- kondratieff didn’t know what would happen in the future however the cycle appears to be correct.
- fifth cycle is a result of an increase in globalisation - developed countries shifted into service industries and technology became the economic driver.
- it was thought that the sixth wave focused on healthcare. The shift to better technology, e.g. development of solar panels and wind farms etc.
39
Unipolar definition:
- power system in which there is one country or area holding the power. For example, the British Empire, other empires and the USA in recent years.
40
Bipolar definition:
- power systems where two states hold the power, they both have influences and alliances, e.g. Cold War.
41
Multipolar definition:
- power system where power is distributed between more than two states, e.g. the Concert of Europe (after Napoleonic wars where Europe worked well together)
42
What is neo-colonialism?
- modern form of control and is an indirect form of control
- it means that some countries do not have full control over themselves
43
Indirect control - post WW11:
- UK's role in WW1 and WW11, in addition to the Great Depression led to the collapse of the country as a superpower.
- the period after WW11 saw the rise of the USA and USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republicans) to from a bi-polar world.
- the result of this was the Cold War.
44
Cold War - military influence:
- military alliances developed with countries supporting both USA and USSR.
- NATO countries were those supporting the USA.
- a collective treaty was developed by the USSR - known as the Warsaw Pact and included countries such as Albania, East Germany, Poland and Hungary
- nuclear arms race in which both countries spent millions increasing their nuclear arsenal.
45
Cold War - economic influence:
46
Cold War - cultural influence:
- The use of cultural mediums such as TV, film and books was used throughout the Cold War to influence people's views and beliefs.
+ e.g. 'How to spot a communist' videos shown in US schools
+ anti-communist and pro-American values were widely promoted.
- US boycotted 1980 Olympics as they were held in Moscow, whilst USSR boycotted 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles.
- the space race was n extension of the tensions between USA and USSR.
47
Cold War - political influence:
- divided the world into capitalist and communist ideologies.
- Europe's eastern countries became communist whilst the west was capitalist.
- this was divided by the 'Iron Curtain'
48
What are the BRICS countries?
- have been identified as rising economic power.
- Richard Sacse predicted in 2000 that there would be rapid economic growth in four countries, which these being Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
49
What roles do other countries now have in global governance?
- growing influences in key IGOs, such as the World Bank, China has a huge economic base which equals political power, however is still limited.
- financial power is in London, New York and Paris.
50
Largest economies in 2050?
- largest economy will be China, with the USA being in 3rd.
- emerging economies of Asia (India and Indonesia) are growing so rapidly that they are likely to be major players by 2050.
- there may be some countries which are no longer considered as economic superpowers, e.g. Germany and the UK.
51
Do the BRICS rival the USA or EU?
- don’t yet rival USA as economic superpowers as the combined GDP SAS $16.4 trillion (2014). This was 8% less than the USA.
- China accounts for 60% of the GDP and if China were excluded the group seems a lot less powerful.
52
What are the problems currently facing superpower status of the BRICS countries?
- HDI: wealth isn’t distributed and human development remains low despite high levels of monetary value.
- large populations can be limiting
- high population growth leads to high mortality and more issues in cities which may not always be a positive.
53
India - development data:
- HDI: 0.586
- GNI: $10 trillion
- life expectancy: 70
- literacy rate: 74%
- Gini coefficient: 35
- Gender Equality Index: 46th of 132 countries.
54
India - strengths:
- averaged 7% annual GDP growth between 1997 and 2015.
- world’s largest democracy with 672 million voters. It was also a founding member of the UN and G20.
- India is ranked as the world’s fourth largest military power in terms of its weaponry and personnel.
- English speaking education system: high member of graduates. Therefore there is the ability to work in globalised markets. Lots of investments into universities.
- leading in IT within the world.
- amongst the world’s leading biodiversity - large tourist industry
- birthplace of four world religions (Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, Sikhism)
- Bollywood is the world’s largest film industries. Produces 1,200 films annually.
- fully self-sufficient in food production.
- investment into renewable energy - world’s biggest user of biogas.
55
India - weaknesses:
- government is facing large debt. Led to a reduction in the value of the rupee. However this is compared to the dollar.
- 20% of India’s population live in poverty.
- India has the world’s worst environmental problems; with serious pollution.
- world’s third largest emitter of carbon dioxide.
- poor infrastructure of water and energy supply, as well as transport. Power cuts are frequently - July 2012: affected 620 million people.
- the River Ganges is the worlds most polluted river.
- overpopulation: second largest population globally with 1.2 billion. This is behind China which has 1.4 billion.
- top 1% of the rich people in India hold 50% of all money within the country.
56
Is India a superpower?
...
57
China - development data:
- HDI: 0.752
- GNI: $27 trillion
- life expectancy: 78
- literacy rate: 99.8%
- Gini coefficient: 40.6
- Gender Equality Index: 39th of 132 countries.
58
China - strengths:
- China has a large spending amount of $216.4 billion annually
- major player in global investment, particularly in Africa
- China has a huge manufacturing industry
- large workforce due to a population of 1.4 billion
- large middle class and therefore spending power
59
China - weaknesses:
- China's GDP is only 10% of the USA's, wealth is yet to be spread among its population
- isolated in terms of international migration - unlike USA which attracts global talent. It may need immigration to supplement future recruitment among young people
- ageing population
- huge debts due to heavy investments overseas
- poor geopolitical relations - limits negotiations
- culturally weaker than USA or western culture
- ongoing COVID-19: weakened relations with other countries due to China's handling of the virus and it's been suggested it originated in China.
60
Is China a superpower?
- yes, one of six major superpowers.
- however, doesn't yet compare to USA although will in the future.
61
Brazil - development data:
- HDI: 0.755
- GNI: $3.3 trillion
- life expectancy: 76
- literacy rate: 99%
- Gini coefficient: 48.9
- Gender Equality Index: 57th of 132 countries.
62
Brazil - strengths:
- produces half of South America’s GDP (2015). Dominates power in South America.
- had huge natural resources and is self-sufficient in both food and energy. Agricultural superpower: 3rd largest producer of iron ore, 15th largest of oil, 3rd largest of HEP.
- supports global initiatives, e.g. UN conference on climate change, and is a leader in using ethanol.
- has a global reputation as a footballing nation. It hosted the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics.
- famous for its Rio carnival.
63
Brazil - weaknesses:
- Brazil also has major environmental issues - e.g. deforestation in the Amazon, illegal poaching and pollution due to oil spills and mining activities.
- relies on primary produces for exports, rather than manufacturing - weakened economy.
- has been politically unstable in recent years with accusations of corruption as well as protests annually since 2013. Recently the PM. was impeached for corruption.
- population is ageing and the fertility rate fell from 1969 to 1.8 in 2015.
- spends over 60% of South America’s total military budget but the military in Brazil is the least significant of the BRICS.
- crime; public are concerned for safety - deters tourists.
64
Is Brazil a superpower?
...
65
Russia - development data:
- HDI: 0.824
- GNI: $4.7 trillion
- life expectancy: 71
- literacy rate: 99.6%
- Gini coefficient: 36
- Gender Equality Index: 45th of 132 countries.
66
Russia - strengths:
- ninth largest global economy
- Russia’s history is of global significance. It has a large tourist industry.
- lathe land mass and shared borders - resources such as oil and gas.
- large presence in the Arctic. Well placed geographically - Russia are able to take advantage of natural resources there.
- Russia exert hard power and have a seat on security council.
67
Russia - weaknesses:
- very dependent on oil and gas for GDP. Vulnerable to global price inflations.
- economy is unbalanced; manufacturing halved after 1991.
- 2014: very unequal distribution of wealth. For example, 85% of total wealth was in the hands of 110 people, and the richest 1% controlled 71% of the country’s wealth.
- large population problems.
- between 1991 and 2015, Russia’s population declined in 21 of the 25 years.
- Russia has a pollution legacy from industrialising between 1940 and 1960.
- the rate of alcoholism is extremely high - the life expectancy in Russia should be about 80 years.
68
Is Russia a superpower?
...
69
South Africa - development data:
- HDI: 0.710
- GNI: $852 billion
- life expectancy: 65
- literacy rate: 95%
- Gini coefficient: 63. Most unequal countries globally.
- Gender Equality Index: 61st of 132 countries.
70
Strengths of South Africa:
- highly diverse culture
- good European links, due to metal trade and historic links
- vast natural reserves, including copper and gold
- strong location for outsourcing
- democratic country
- strong GDP growth of 5% in 2021.
- young population
- developed financial markets
- regional African power
71
Weaknesses of South Africa:
- 29% unemployment rate: extremely high.
- high crime rate - mostly attributed to inequalities.
- high incident rate of water disasters such as floods, etc.
- vulnerable to diseases,e.g. malaria due to a warm climate.
- 22% of the population live in poverty.
- widespread skills shortages - low investment.
- public corruption is common
- poor infrastructure.
- the country has previously suffered from deindustrialisation.
- similarly to Brazil, South Africa is heavily dependent on mineral resources.
72
Is South Africa a superpower?
73
Key features of free-market capitalist system:
- private ownership of property and possessions
- private ownership of businesses
- waves based on supply and demand as well as skill levels
- the right to make profit and accumulate wealth
- trading of goods in a free market with limited restrictions
74
What are the role of IGOs - global economy:
- they help to encourage free trade and free-market capitalism by promoting their values.
- there are four key IGOs who are instrumental in the global economy.
75
What are the four IGOs?
- World Trade Organisation (WTO)
- The World Bank
- International Monetary Fund (IMF)
- World economic forum
76
What is the role of WTO?
- responsible for facilitating free trade and removing the barriers.
- can improve quotas, tariffs and rules
- reforming GATT rules
77
Who is influential in WTO?
- Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland
- European nations are more influential - e.g. Germany and France.
- USA and China are in conflict. USA: protect domestic and China want to lower prices.
78
What is the role of The World Bank?
- responsible for helping developing countries with development projects and providing loans to developing countries in order to build top down bottom up projects.
- countries give/donate money which is then distributed to ensure global development.
- set up in 1944.
79
Who is influential in The World Bank?
- USA
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- UK
80
What is the role of International Monetary Fund?
- established in 1945.
- provides loans to struggling countries and economies to provide a productive global economy
- monitors trade rates
- gives precautionary loans to prevent damage, e.g. Mexico and the Netherlands
- balances global economy - ensures no country goes back riot or into recession.
81
Who is influential in the IMF?
- USA: 16.5% share of vote
- China and Japan: 6% each
- Germany: 5%
- France and UK: 4% each
82
What is the role of the World Economic Forum?
- established in 1971
- Swiss non-profit organisation
- pro free trade
83
Who is influential in the World Economic Forum?
- Norwegian chairman (Brende)
- board members, Europe and the USA (western influence)
84
What are the two types of TNCs?
- publicly traded
- state owned
85
What are publicly traded TNCs?
- shares held by a range of players (e.g. banks, institutions, etc) around the world.
- e.g. Walmart (2014: $486 billion) and Shell (2014: $421 billion)
- more global reach
86
Stages of Kondrarieff waves:
- stage one: steam engine (Panic of 1837: 1837-1843)
- stage two: railway, steel (Long Depression - 1873-1879)
- stage three: electrification, chemicals (Great Depression - 1929-1939)
- stage four: automobiles, petrochemicals (1st and 2nd Oil crisis - 1974-1980)
- stage five: information technology, communications technology (Financial cris (2007-2009)
- stage six: thought to be environment technology, biotechnology, health care. (COVID-19 - 2019-2022)
87
State owned TNCs:
- majority of the TNC is owned by government
- e.g. Petrobas and Sinopec
- less global reach
88
How do western superpowers exert their influence?
- rich enough to invest in new technology
- wealthier companies outcompete smaller rivals, often gaining a monopoly on the market.
- can borrow money and invest to take advantage of globalisation.
- free-market capitalism has opened up new markets, allowing expansion (businesses can diversify).
89
TNC involvement in global trade:
-
90
TNC involvement in technology:
91
TNC involvement in culture:
92
Crisis response example - Syria:
- Britain contributed over $1.5 billion of aid to the 2015/2016 humanitarian crisis in Syria, making it the second largest contributor behind the USA.
- unlike other countries in the EU, the UK focused its aid on humanitarian projects in Syria and aid for refugees in nearby countries.
93
Crisis response - Haiti:
- Haiti's assistance only brought in 25% of the money needed. Therefore it was left to the USA and France to provide 550 personnel as well as humanitarian aid.
- IGOs sought $5 million from UN funds to provide aid for 500,000 Haitian children.
94
Crisis response - Ukraine:
- USA: committed $20 billion since February 2022.
- UK: £2.3 billion in military assistance and training 10,000 new and existing personnel every 120 days.
- NATO: supporting the delivery of humanitarian and non-lethal aid.
- EU: providing lethal arms and committed $3.1 billion. Germany have also been asked to send tanks.
95
Conflicts - Britain:
- The UK priorities the prevention of conflict in fragile states, using programmes such as Official Development Assistance and the Arab partnership programme to help countries in the Middle East and North America (MENA).
96
Conflicts - Afghanistan:
- Afghan communist party seized power in 1978, which in 1979 was supported by invading troops and tanks from the USSR. These troops were resisted by Afghan guerillas, provoking conflict between the USA and USSR.
- the USA supported the mujahideen with weapons. With American funding, they resisted Soviet troops which withdrew by 1989.
- April 2021: NATO Foreign and Defence ministers decided to withdraw all allied troops from Afghanistan within a few months.
- 2021: The Taliban gained control of Afghanistan.
97
Climate change:
- attending global meetings, like COP27, to plan climate change will be prevented.
- most big countries have pledged to cut out carbon by 2050.
- India and China are investing lots of money into green technology.
98
Geostrategy definition:
-
99
Benefits for all countries:
- improvements to infrastructure
-
100
Costs for all countries:
- agreements are biased to rich-world interests.
- national policy can get in the way, e.g. Canada's energy policy is problematic.
- subsidies such as fairtrade can affect trading.
101
Benefits of developing countries:
- better market access
- better paid jobs due to more FDI
102
Costs of developing nations:
- local producers can be affected by large scale trading
- new agreements can take over and affect countries which are side-lined.
103
Examples of military alliances:
- NATO
- ANZUS
104
Examples of economic alliances:
- EU
- USMCA
- ASEAN
105
What is the role of NATO?
- North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
- formed in 1949 at the start of the Cold War.
- focused on global security
- works closely with the EU and UN
- its members carry out regular military exercises on each other's territory.
106
Strengths of NATO:
- mutual defence pact: an attack on one member is an attack on all.
- significant power : $30 trillion and 70% of global military budget.
107
Weaknesses of NATO:
- since 1991 and the end of the Cold War - NATO's influence has diminished to such an extent that its role and cost is now being questioned.
- heavily reliant on the USA.
108
Who holds the power in NATO?
- USA
- UK: providing resources, technology etc.
109
What is the role of ANZUS?
- Australia, New Zealand and United States Security Treaty
- security agreement formed in 1951.
- binds Australia, NZ, and the USA to co-operate on military maters in the Pacific and beyond.
110
Strengths of ANZUS:
- helped the USA to maintain its military presence in the Pacific.
111
Weaknesses of ANZUS:
- led to Australia's involvement in the Afghanistan war. This is because they had to provide military forces.
112
Who holds the power in ANZUS?
- USA
113
What is the role of the EU?
- The European Union
- began as a trading alliance of six countries i 1993
- aimed to prevent wars and strengthen economic bonds
- its principle is that economic strength insures against poverty and adopts a policy to reduce inequalities between the rich and poor.
114
Strengths of the EU?
- freedom of trade of goods, services and capital
- remains a free-trade zone.
115
Weaknesses of the EU:
- countries have to pay a fee to remain in the EU. For example the UK's fee was £12.9 billion.
116
Who holds the power in the EU?
- France and Germany
- UK did prior to leaving in early 2020.
117
What is the role of USMCA?
- United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement.
- previously NAFTA (1994) until replaced in 2020, keeping the North American trade blocs and aiming to maintain a free-trade area.
118
Strengths of the USMCA:
- The USA now has more access to the Canadian dairy markets.
- increases intellectual property rights for creators.
- improving working conditions in Mexico and and setting up a panel to investigate issues: aim is to create a better wage and balance between USA/Mexican workers.
119
Weaknesses of the USMCA:
- has a 16 year lifespan, so will be reviewed in 2036.
120
NAFTA - who benefitted?
- USA: labour costs became lower in Mexico, and therefore led to the drift of manufacturing south into Mexico.
121
Who holds the power in the USMCA?
- USA
122
What is the role of ASEAN?
- The Association of Southeast Asia Nations
- founding members include Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines. It now has 10 countries.
- formed in 1967
- balances political conflicts
- aims to include cultural co-operation and common legal framework.
123
Strengths of ASEAN:
- free trade with countries such as China, India and Australia
124
Weaknesses of ASEAN:
- Vietnam and the Philippines are vulnerable to climate change.
- facing economic and political problems
- pollution continues, e.g. in Indonesia.
125
Who holds the power in ASEAN?
- Singapore
- Indonesia
- the Philippines
126
What is the IPCC?
- Intergovernmental panel on climate change
- established in 1988
- produces reports to support the main international treaty on climate change
- members representing over 120 countries
- aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at a level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference.
127
What is the United Nations (UN)?
- established in 1945
- grown from 26 countries in 1945 to 193 countries by 2016.
- aim is to prevent a recurrence of global conflict, by focusing on establishing human fundamental rights and equal rights for genders in all nations
- hosts conferences on global issues, superpowers and emerging can exert influence through other UN institutions.
128
Parts of the UN:
- UN Security Council
- International Court of Justice
- UN and Climate Change
129
What is the UN Security Council?
- responsible for preventing conflict
- has 15 members at any one time
- five permanent countries - UK, USA, France, China and Russia.
- authorised military and peacekeeping missions in Kuwait, Bosnia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
- all members vetoed the USA and UK soldiers into Iraq - although this went ahead.
130
What is the International Court of Justice?
- the judicial branch pf the UN and is based in the Hague (Netherlands)
- settles disputes between member countries and advises on international law
- IJC has fifteen judges who represent different global regions - western countries (5), Africa (3), Eastern Europe (2), Asia (3), Latin America and Caribbean (2)
five permanent members - UK, USA, Russia, Canada and France.
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What is the UN and Climate Change:
- aim to make progress in managing climate change.
- since 1995, each conference of the parties (COP) has tried to establish legally binding requirements for all developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- global agreements, e.g. Paris 2015 agreement, are only as good as their weakest link. 55 countries signed however many didn't.
- Australia and the USA have undermined agreements.
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What was the role of the UN in Russia/Ukraine conflict:
- March 2022: $1.7 billion to provide emergency humanitarian assistance.
- April 2022: UN doubled the appeal to $2.24 billion.
- November 2022: UN humanitarians delivered essential supplies to thousands of people in Kherson.
- Jan 2023: UN food and agricultural organisation announced a $15.5 million initiative to help farmers and smallholders in Ukraine.
133
What are reasons for high consumption of primary energy?
- type of job and industries - e.g. secondary industries use money than agricultural countries.
- population
- industries
- money
- development
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Superpower resource demands - water:
- over 2.7 billion people face water scarcity at least one month a year.
- India and China are facing increased water scarcity due to
+ increasing industrial and agricultural demand
- increasing population
- increasing drought
- pollution of freshwater due to industry, agricultural and domestic waste water.
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Superpower resource demands - food:
- demand for food has increased due to population increase and increased calorie intake.
136
Superpower resource demands - fossil fuels:
- As countries develop, their energy requirements increase as:
+ More energy is used in factories and industry
+ Domestic demand increases as people have more technology - washing machines, TVs, fridges etc...
- Many emerging countries rely on fossil fuels as they are cheaper and they may have their own reserves of fossil fuels
+ In Indonesia 81% of electricity is generated by fossil fuels
+ Since 2011 China has used more coal than the rest of the world combined - 57% of China's energy is produced using coal
137
Superpower resource demands - minerals:
- Minerals are used in many different ways:
+ Energy - fossil fuels used to produce energy, components for renewable energy (solar panels, turbines)
+ Industry - all products from mobile phones to cars use minerals in their manufacture from oil to copper
+ Construction - materials to make concrete, bricks
+ Metals
- The use of minerals is projected to continue to increase, with particularly demand for minerals such as graphite and lithium which are used in batteries and renewable energy
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Superpower resource demands - environmental degradation:
- The increased demand for resources is leading to significant environmental degradation including:
+ Water pollution from industry, agriculture and domestic waste
- An estimated 80% of groundwater in China is unfit for human consumption
+ Severe air pollution
- About 90% of the global population experienced unhealthy air quality
- In 2019 7 of the 10 most polluted cities were in India
+ Soil degradation is an increasing issue around the world
- The UN estimates 40% of the world's land is degraded
- Growing food becomes more difficult as soils become infertile, leading to food shortages and reducing food production by up to 12% by 2050
- The regeneration of 2.5cm of topsoil can take hundreds of years
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Superpower resource demands - carbon emssions:
- Superpowers or emerging superpowers are the largest emitters of CO2
- China emits over 30% of all global greenhouse emissions, followed by the USA (13%) and the EU (8%)and India (8%)
- The UN reported in 2019 that the group of 20 major economies (G20) are responsible for 78% of greenhouse gas emissions
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China - willingness to act on emissions:
- any global reduction agreement would be meaningless without China.
- 2014: China agreed to work towards an emissions peak in 2030 but only committed ti any actual targets in 2016.
- its current dominance in emissions makes it decide the success of treaties on climate change.
141
USA - willingness to act on emissions:
- shown global leadership and since 2005 have reduced emissions most.
- 2005-2015 wind power tripled in output and solar multiplied by 10.
- Obama: introduced measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through greater energy efficiency, promoting renewable energy and carbon pollution standards of electricity generation. However Trump has altered these attitudes.
- President Trump took the decision to withdraw the US from the agreement in 2017 and this took effect in 2020
- President Biden took office in 2021 and his first act was to rejoin the agreement
- The target for the US is now a 50-52% reduction from 2005 emission levels by 2030
142
Russia - willingness to act on emissions:
- supported Paris 2015 Agreement, much to the surprise of many
- however many believe the attitude of Russia is unchanged
- its agreement to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% may actually allow them to increase.
143
EU - willingness to act on emissions:
- been at the forefront of climate initiatives, e.g. carbon trading, emissions reductions, and grants to encourage renewable energy
- 1997: agreed renewable policies that cut 12% of total EU energy consumption by 2010.
144
Contesting global influence example
- Arctic
- Eastern Europe
- South China Sea
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The Arctic:
- the area of the Arctic is ocean and therefore there is no international treaty to protect the environment.
- UNCLOS should provide protection however states are seeking to extend their territorial claim and allow mining and new code of practice from International Seabed Authority (ISA) permits mining
- it is estimated that there are 160 billion barrels of oil in the Arctic as well as 30% of the world's undiscovered gas.
- many countries have claims to the Arctic, e.g. Canada, USA, Russia, Norway and Denmark.
- Climate change is causing the ice sheets to melt. This increases the accessibility of oil and gas through drilling.
- rare minerals are also present in the area.
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Resource exploitation in the Arctic:
- Greenland has two active mines and potential for more due to the melting of the ice sheets
- Norway has licensed grants for exploration of oil and gas in the Barents Sea.
- the first offshore oil platform was set up in 2013 and is operated by Gazprom
- USA have approved the Willow Project which allows for mining of 600 million barrels of oil.
147
Tensions in the Arctic:
- all 5 states have begun to strengthen their military presence
- NATO exercise Cold Response in 2022 was led by Norway
- Canadian Armed Forces have engaged in a number of military exercises with the USA to defend their claims in the area - e.g. Ice Exercise 2022.
- Russia has reintroduced a military presence making improvements to bases in North of Russia.
148
Tensions in Eastern Europe:
- The dissolution of USSR in 1991 led to the establishment of 15 newly independent states, including Ukraine, Belarus and Latvia.
- however the influence of Russia has declined due to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joining the EU and NATO in 2004.
- the expansion of EU and NATO has led to Russia being concerned over its influence in the region.
- Russia's concerns with Ukraine and Georgia wanting to join NATIO and Ukraine and Moldova wanting to join the EU escalated tensions in the area.
- 2014: Russia annexed Crimea - a part of Ukraine
- tensions culminated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and ongoing conflict.
149
The South China Sea conflict:
- one of the most contested areas in the world. Contested by many countries including China and the Philippines.
- it is essential for trade and it forms the link between the Pacific and Indian oceans. I t is estimated that 30% of global trade passes through the Sea ($5.3 trillion) and 40% of world's petroleum products pass through.
- globally significant in terms of biodiversity supporting coral reefs and 3500 species of fish.
- two main contested islands are Spratley Islands and Paracel Islands.
150
Spratley Islands:
- contested by China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei.
- China has embarked on building islands to increase their military presence. However this is concerning for the USA as it could reduce the US Royal Navy's ability to move freely between the Pacific and Indian Ocean which may impact their military reach.
151
Why are IP rights good?
- people and countries cannot 'steal' ideas
- creators get correct profits - worked protection
- encourages innovation and invention which is good for development and growth.
- people don't earn fair money for their inventions if someone else can sell it more cheaply.
152
Why are IP rights bad?
- certain countries may not have access to certain things aiding their development or quality of life.
- IP laws put extra costs in the hands of the consumers.
- those who hold IP regulated inventions or producers do not have to share their ideas, meaning good things such as medicine may be held back.
- IP creators can sell prices meaning products are often not affordable for all, e.g. covid-19 vaccination rollout -western countries had access first. Israel.
153
How are China creating tensions over infringement of IP rights?
- In 2011, there were 22 fake apple stores
- the UN estimates that 70% of all counterfeit models came from China.
- the Chinese government do not really do much to tackle the problem, which angers other countries whose property rights being violated.
154
How can different players be affected by counterfeiting?
- China: creates geopolitical tension and relations with other countries for not cracking down. Many discourage TNCs conflict especially with the USA.
- Consumers: cheaper products but of lower quality. Also some may be conned into paying large amounts of money for a fake.
- TNCs: profit loss, no-reason to invent new products. Brand reputation of poor quality product. Devaluing of brand - e.g. Burberry and LV.
- other countries: impact on GVA, GDP and less reason for investment or supporting start-ups in innovation.
155
About Africa and China:
- China is Africa's largest trade partner.
- China buys a third of its oil from Africa.
- In 1980, trade between the two was around $1 billion. By 2015 it was over $300 billion.
156
Challenges for China:
- negative reaction from black market selling or ivory through illegal poaching. Elephants are protected under international law due to them being endangered.
- among small businesses in Africa people believe Chinese businesses should be based in China.
- less political standing due to negative stories
- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) located along the Blue Nile and was constructed in 2011. China Eximbank had funded $1 billion of the project. However, the dam has created tensions between Chinese-aligned country, Ethiopia and American ally Egypt.
- Collum coal mining: private change from supporting fuel to copper and cobalt mines of Zambia. African workers were shot by Chinese managers in 2011. The Chinese farm failed to declare the total production of coal accurately and avoided paying tax as a result.
157
Opportunities for Africa:
- benefitted from Chinese FDI, e.g. infrastructure investment into railways. Renovated railway leads to increased trade and increased income.
- 6 countries receive Chinese FDI - Angola, Zambia, Ethiopia, South America, DRC.
- China has built scholols, hopsitals, anti-malaria centres and agriclutral technology demonstration and centres.
- China trained 40,000 African personnel.
- employment has been created due to building works in Africa.
- China Railway Group (CRG) and the Chinese Eximbank have been providing a workforce and funding for large infrastructure projects ti develop African economies. CRG helped fund and build the Addis-Abada-Djibouti railway in 2016 costing $4 billion. Gives access to the sea and the capacity s over 24 tonnes annually.
158
Opportunities for China:
- investment into other countries has improved links and geopolitical relations between China and other countries.
- profits have been made with Africa due to investments, e.g. the chicken farms. People now have more respect for the country. This increases trade and real prospect.
- economic growth has led to greater political influence.
- 63% of African countries say China is 'somewhat' or a very positive influence in their countries.
- China has been exerting its cultural and political influence by building schools that teach mandarin. The Confucius Institute, seeks to spread Chinese culture and language, has partnered with African universities and now has 45 centres in the continent. This helps China project its soft power in the region, Africans become prepared to work in China.
159
Challenges for Africa:
- increased killing of animals for ivory has led to Africa having to deal with the repercussions.
- African businesses are facing competition due to Chinese businesses. Many believe that they don't have the capacity, resources or power to be able to compete with China.
- 90% of businesses have been lost.
- African countries now owe $140 billion. Furthermore, the trade off has been Chinese accession to mineral rights and land for agricultural production, which is unlike western neo-colonial projects in the region.
environmental issues:
- China's decision to move some industries, e.g. steel, cement and leather tanning, from China to Africa caused concern for some African countries.
- China has invested into Ethiopia's leather industry which is highly polluting.
- environmental problems in South Africa: include air and water pollution due to a steelworks being built by a Chinese steel company.
- tanning in Ethiopia: Chinese invested lots into this heavily polluting industry. Uses large amounts of water, uses chemicals such as arsenic that contaminate drinking supplies and farmland. Resulting problems with asthma, eyesight, and skin rashes.
- Chinese imports of tropical timber have been linked to widespread illegal deforestation in Mozambique.
- oil spills linked to Chinese-funded oil wells have been reported in Chad, Sudan and Angola.
- the extraction of metallic ore coltan in the DRC has led to widespread forest loss and river pollution, but its vital to Chinese mobile phones. The country is also very corrupt with many inequalities.
160
Conflict between China and Taiwan:
- In 1949 the ending of the Chinese civil war resulted in the establishment of the communist People's Republic of China on the mainland.
- the opposing government retreated to the Chinese province of Taiwan with Taipei as its capital.
- Since the, relations have been tense between the two governments and no peace treaty ever signed.
- each government claims to be China's legitimate government and communist Chinese government maintains its territorial claim to Taiwan.
161
Conflict between China and Tibet:
- seeking political separation of Tibet from China.
- Beijing's communist government is accusing those is seeking separation of suppressing Tibetan religion, culture and freedom of expression.
- Beijing refused to acknowledge Tibet's traditional spiritual and political leader
- China has increased tensions by encouraging ethnic Chinese migrants to move to Tibet and investing in Tibetan industry.
162
Conflict between China and Japan:
- Tensions are historic although have improved in the 21st century and the two countries now trade extensively.
- relations were weak since the mid-19th century and worsened when US troops were 'stationed' in Japan after WW2, during Chinese civil war.
- heavy investment into Japan from the USA led to increased tensions as Japan adopted a capitalist, westernised economic recovery.
163
Conflict between China and India:
- relations between India and China have been tense based on historical border disputes.
- they both maintain a military presence along their Himalayan borders.
- India is suspicious of China's good relationship with Pakistan.
- whilst China is also concerned with India's interest in the South China Sea.
- this conflict has been made worse due to the political tensions of India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Both countries have gone to war several times over this area.
164
Sunni Muslims definition:
- Largest branch of Islam, especially in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
165
Shi’a Muslims definition:
- a smaller branch of Islam, majority in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and Bahrain
166
Arab spring definition:
- a wave of pro-democracy protests in 2010-2011.
167
Hamas definition:
- a Palestinian fundamentalist group (Sunni Islamists)
168
Hezbollah definition:
- Lebanese militant group (Shi'a Islamists)
169
How were tensions created in the early 20th century - Middle East?
170
What modern tensions exist?
171
What are the main threats to stability?
172
How do tensions in the Middle East create problems for superpowers?
173
The final shift - Kellingley Colliery:
- December 2015: Kellingley Colliery closed.
-opened in 1965 and was the last coalmine in the UK's largest coalfields.
- 1970s: employed 2000 workers when coal miners where among those highest-paid manual workers in the UK.
174
The beginning of economic restructuring:
- mine closures led and became a big part of the economic restructuring which, alongside other western countries such as Germany, France and USA, shifted employment from primary and secondary sectors towards the tertiary and quaternary sector.
- this happened in the UK due to the election of the conservative government in 1979 and in particular the manufacturing sector was affected.
175
What were the problems with economic restructuring?
1) unemployment
2) social costs
3) debt problems and financial crisis
176
Unemployment:
- became an endemic in the UK's traditional mining and manufacturing regions in the Midlands and the North.
- 1980: 240,000 workers worked in the UK's coalmines.
- during 1990s this had recued to 13,000.
- this also happened in European regions, i.e. north east France, and the USA (rust belt regions).
- USA: tertiary and quaternary sectors have continued to increase in LA and NY however traditional manufacturing cities such as Allertown have continued to decline.
177
Social costs:
- social cohesion was lost
- men lost full-time work and faced mental health problems such as depression.
- many also had to migrate to find work in London and the South-East.
178
The debt problem and financial crisis:
- 2007: Northern Rock had greater debts than assets and therefore people wanted to withdraw their money immediately.
- The bank had to be rescued by the Bank of England (£3 billion) and then nationalised to stop the panic.
- government feared that if this bank collapsed it may cause fear and other UK banks may follow.
- confidence in the global banking system was shattered. Some of the largest banks collapsed (Lehmann Brothers), were bailed out (e.g. Lloyds) and were nationalised (RBS).
- debt levels of many governments (including UK and USA) increased because of bank bailouts and had to pay an increasing proportion of their GDP to service these debts.
179
What were the impacts of the financial crisis?
- without the many bank bailouts, the potential worldwide banking collapse could have caused a global recession.
- The US government chose o react to the crisis by increasing national debt to maintain customer spending and an economic multiplier effect.
- however centre-right politicians in the UK and Germany favoured another approach - austerity - to reduce gov spending and debt. Austerity led to increased unemployment which led to social tensions and divisions.
- Elsewhere in Europe, i.e. Greece, a gov debt crisis led to to high unemployment which led yo increased hate crimes against immigrants. Support from anti-immigration policies from far-right political parties increased tensions.
180
Types of military:
- naval
- nuclear
- air
- intelligence
- space
181
Naval:
- during the Falklands war (1982) the UK spent 4% of its GDP on defence, which has seen been almost halved.
- the Royal Navy's newest type of 45 destroyers use the latest technology, but the UK had just six of these ships in 2016.
182
Nuclear:
- the beneficiaries of nuclear defence are the US defence industries.
- the cost of upgraded deterrents ate considerable, with estimated costs varying £100 billion and £250 billion over 45-50 years.
- nuclear weapons are expensive, there are also major costs in the protection of the weapons and the decommission.
183
Air:
- costs tend to be the second highest after nuclear weapons.
- research and development needed to upgrade and maintain combat aircraft means that their cost increases rapidly.
184
Intelligence:
- success is varied - depends on the intelligence derived from on-the-ground surveillance as well as the electronic interception of mobile phones.
- extremely labour intensive and therefore very costly.
185
Space:
- only a few countries or partnerships are committed to space exploration - the USA, Russia, the EU, China, Japan and India.
- finding is generally used for genuine exploration rather than military opposes.
- however, space budgets are under threat in many western countries since India have adopted manor space programmes and going to space cheaply.
186
Future: USA - strengths:
- highest military budget - has nuclear weapons
- TNCs - global reach and power FAANGS.
- diplomatically strong - soft power
187
Future: USA - weaknesses:
- large amount of debt
- threat/competition from China in terms of economic power.
- internal divisions - democratic and republicans
- economic challenge due to spending
188
Future: China - strengths
- $20 trillion - closing in on the USA. China will eventually overtake the US.
- 3rd/4th largest country by land size
- 2nd highest military budget
- nuclear armed
- 6th most naturally rich resource country
189
Future: China - weaknesses:
- still falls short in most categories however is catching up.
- landlocked
- heavily polluted environment.
- ageing and shrinking population - has potential to cause growth to decline
- workforce will shrink
- few allies
190
Future: India - strengths:
- largest country in terms of population
- economy is growing fast. 2050 - surpasses US and second largest
- great power but not superpower
- doesn't have resources or infrastructure
191
Future: India - weaknesses:
- home to most poverty in the world
- GDP per capita - $2000
- geographically position - vulnerable to disasters, e.g. floods, etc
- literacy rate - 60%
192
Future: Russia - strengths:
- presence in the Arctic
- largest country on earth, 17 million km2.
- 9th largest populated - 147 million people
193
Future: Russia - weaknesses:
- western sanctions - stopped importing
- population is small compared to land size and is declining
- economy will decline - due to declining population and sanctions.
- spending money on war in ukraine.
194
Future: EU -strengths:
- 450 million people
- GDP: $15-16 trillion - 3rd largest economy
-home to some of the richest developed countries
195
Future: EU - weaknesses:
- population and GDP is declining Europe falls short significantly next to Asia.
- ageing population
- EU has no military
- not unified due to different languages and cultures.
196
Future: Brazil - strengths:
- 6th most populated country - 215 million. Most populated in Latin America
- 3rd largest country in land size
- top 10 for military and economy
197
Future: Brazil - weaknesses:
- considered to be deeply corrupt
- geographically and politically not involved
- cannot compete on global stage
198
The South China Sea conflict:
- one of the most contested areas in the world. Contested by many countries including China and the Philippines.
- it is essential for trade and it forms the link between the Pacific and Indian oceans. I t is estimated that 30% of global trade passes through the Sea ($5.3 trillion) and 40% of world's petroleum products pass through.
- globally significant in terms of biodiversity supporting coral reefs and 3500 species of fish.
- two main contested islands are Spratley Islands and Paracel Islands.
199
Spratley Islands:
- contested by China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei.
- China has embarked on building islands to increase their military presence. However this is concerning for the USA as it could reduce the US Royal Navy's ability to move freely between the Pacific and Indian Ocean which may impact their military reach.
200
Soft power - UK (diplomacy):
- The UK has 281 diplomatic posts in 178 countries and territories
- Relationships have been built over many years through the existence of the Commonwealth and the former countries of the British Empire
- The popularity of the royal family and their role in diplomacy and maintaining international relations
