Voting behaviour

Question 1

Define expressive voting

Answer 1

voting on the basis of party attachment, political ideology, or social group membership

Question 2

Define strategic voting

Answer 2

• voting to produce an election outcome which is as close as possible to ones policy preferences

Question 3

What is a political cleavage

Answer 3

a division in society which produces alignment between a group of voters and a party

Question 4

Define Dealignment

Answer 4

the erosion of political cleavages, and their replacement with individualistic voting

Question 5

Clevage system- What is the historical divisions hypothesis

Answer 5

(Lipset & Rokken 1967) Mobilization is fixed at the time of suffrage extension. Cleavages
that existed at that time largely persist to today

Question 6

Clevage system- What is strategic mobilisation thesis

Answer 6

(Posner 2001; Laitin 1986) some cleavages are more electorally pivotal than other. Small religious or ethnic minorities are rarely mobilized

Question 7

Clevage system- What is Cultural dissimilarity hypothese

Answer 7

(Duning & Harrison 2010) cultural similarity determine likelihood of mobilization

Question 8

Case study- A Natural Experiment: The Chewas and Tumbukus in Central Africa

Answer 8

Posner 2004

• looked at the voting behaviour in Malawi (where Chewas & Tumbukus are a dominant ethnic group) and Zambia (where Chewas & Tumbukus are not a dominant ethnic group)
• found that in Malawi people would argue they would not vote for another candidate or marry from another ethnic group whereas in Zambia they did not care
• this is because politicians in Zambia mobilise voters regionally and not ethnically (way more ethnic groups)
• supports strategic mobilisation thesis

Question 9

What is the Alford Index (1962)

Answer 9

• measures class voting by
• % of working-class vote who vote for left wing
  minus
  % of non-working-class who voted for a left wing party

Question 10

What are the 4 causes for dealignment?

Answer 10

1 - Economic growth + prosperity provides the WC with economic security thus no longer the primary goal for these voters

2 - Expansion of public sector - growth to 40-50% of GDP in the public sector which leads to new social groups and interests

3 -Expansion of higher education - leads to growing social mobility which leads to new cognitive thinking

4 - Mass Media - replacement of partisan party controlled media

Question 11

Case study- class voting in the US

Answer 11

Avi Feller and Andrew Gelman 2012

• typically democrats usually promote policies that advocate for the poor and Republicans promote policies in favour of the rich
• However we see that poorer states predominantly vote Republican and vice-versa
• But this is reversed at the individual level
• Rich people still vote Republican which suggests that class matters more in poorer states as it is rich voters in poor states that are increasingly more likely to vote consistently Republican
• Because class issues still matter for poor voters whilst post-modern backlash (social issues) is the main concern for Republican voters
• So class voting is declining amongst rich voters whilst social issues are becoming more prevalent

Question 12

Case study- UK class voting

Answer 12

Cutts et al (2020) identify about class voting in the UK
- a huge drop of labour votes from working class area, and whilst this class divide still persists there is still a divide
* these divides are still dominated by age, race and ethnicity

Question 13

What does Norris & Inglehart (2016) find about why people support populist parties

Answer 13

• cultural factors are the most significant explanation for why people vote for populist parties
• a rise in tolerance for diverse identities, sexualities, abortions and feminism has created a negative effect on the older sector of the selectorate - created a counter-revolutionary retro backlash
• this silent revolution to restore traditional norms and values makes them appeal to populist groups

Question 14

The spatial model of politics

Answer 14

• Voters have “preferences” about a range of policies
• These preferences are “single-peaked” => each voter has an “ideal point” in a single-or
  multi-dimensional policy space
• expressive and strategic voting

Question 15

Why do people vote strategically?

Answer 15

Local elections - To influence the election outcome in a constituency
of the candidate a person most prefers has no chance of being elected, then vote
for the “closest” candidate from amongst the candidates who have a reasonable
chance of being elected

National elections - To influence government formation and policy outcomes
of the party a person most prefers has no chance of influencing government
formation or might form a coalition with a party which is further away from a
person’s preference, then vote for a party which is “further” away, but which will
lead to a policy outcome closer to a person’s ideal policy

Question 16

Case study of voting strategically

Answer 16

2017 & 2019 UK General Elections

• approximately
  20 to 25 per cent of
  people voted for a party
  which was not their first
  preference
• With those who preferred UKIP & Brexit voting for Conservatives as they were more likely to succeed then their first choice
• And people who preferred the lib dems voting for labour

Question 17

Define Political Valence

Answer 17

a model of voting behaviour that emphasises that individuals vote based upon a “people’s judgements of the overall quality of the party leaders (Clarke et al 2004)

• it is most relevant when partys are both in the middle and when voters have limited knowledge

Question 18

Case study- Political Valence

Answer 18

1979 UK General Election

• Both Labour and Conservative party during this election period had moved to the centre
• And the public had voted not on policy but on their views how competent their leaders where and with the high spike in unemployment in Labour’s UK this had ultimately lowered its valence leading to MT sucess

Question 19

What does Anthony Fowler (2020) say about voting behaviour

(READING)

Answer 19

• The downwardly mobile, men are more likley to suffer from party intoxication
• Party intoxication: voters don’t think much about policy or government performance, instead, they are intoxicated
  partisans. They arbitrarily form psychological attachments to their party and blindly support that party in elections, regardless of the candidates’ policy positions, priorities, or abilities
• However evidence suggests most voters are not intoxicated as a candidates ideologies and policies extert significant impact on election results
• Also if it were to be true it would be difficult to explain the incumbency advantage
• Voters are more likely to support candidates
  of the same race, gender, religion, and socioeconomic status, leading scholars to
  claim that many votes are cast according to these forms of identity

Question 20

Trump Brexit and the rise of populism - Norris & Inglehart 2016

(READING)

Answer 20

• found that cultural factors play a significant role in the rise of support for populist partys
• As change has triggered a counter-revolutionary retro backlash, amongst the older generations, white men, and less educated sectors, who actively reject the rising tides of progressive values and resent the displacement of familiar traditional norms – vulnerable to populist appeals
• this has also led to a decline in class voting
• the rise of cultural issues tend to neutralise social class-based political polarisation, and the basis of support for the new policies of the Left, have increasingly come from middle-class sources and support for populist parties come from working-class source