voting behaviour - social/demographic factors as predictors of voting behaviour Flashcards
(7 cards)
Age
Yougov called age the ‘new dividing line in British politics’
- older more likely to vote tories, younger for labour
- in 2019 22% of 18-24 voted conservatives, whilst 60% of over 60s did
Turnout is higher amonst older voters
* in 2017 turnout for +65s was around 25 points higher than among 18-24 year olds
Region
Tradtionally labour voters came from the north and parts of wales/scotland. Wheeras torys got votes from the south east and east midlands
This has changed
* 1997 Blair picked up middle class tory seats from the south east+east midlands
* 2014- SNP lead Labour by 16 points in general election voting (a massive 19 per cent swing since 2010), and by 18 points in Holyrood
* 2019 tories broke the ‘red wall’ majorities of over 20,000 were flipped
Gender
- in the past women more likley to vote tories, less influence today
- bigger difference amongst the young in 2019 in the 18-24 age bracket tories won 15% of women but 28% of men
Class and social status
Ipsos Mori
- in 2019, 42% of AB (managerial employment) voted for conservatives whilst in 1964 this was 78%
- also in 2019 34% of DE (unmployed/pensioner) voted Labour (this was 64% in 1964)
Ethnicity
white voters more likely to vote tories, black+ethnic minorities more likely to vote labour
- 2019 GE - 64% of BME voters voted Labour, 20% voted tories
Education
lower educated voters more likely to vote conservative, uni educated vote labour
(Yougov)
* 75% of uneducated voted to leave, 75% educated voted to remain
* of thoose with a degree or higher 43% voter for labour, 17% for lib dems and 29% for tories
* tories won 58% of the votes among people whos highest level of education was GCSE
How class is still relevant
People who own their housing outright were more than 2x more likely to vote conservative than renters (37% and 14%); additionally, they were almost half as likely to vote Labour (25% and 42%).
