WEEK 6: Climate Change and Violent Conflict Flashcards
(8 cards)
Werrell, Femia & Sternberg (2015) – Did We See It Coming? State Fragility, Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt
The authors link climate-related factors—drought in Syria and global wheat shortages affecting Egypt—to the 2011 uprisings. In Syria, severe drought and poor governance drove rural-to-urban migration, eroding trust in the state. In Egypt, dependence on wheat imports made it vulnerable to global price shocks, contributing to unrest. They critique the Failed States Index and ND-GAIN for failing to predict these vulnerabilities, calling for more nuanced climate-fragility assessments.
Zimmerer (2014) – Climate Change, Environmental Violence and Genocide
Zimmerer calls for rethinking genocide through the lens of environmental justice. Rather than ideological extremism alone, genocides are often rooted in rational state goals like land and resource control. Climate change exacerbates resource scarcity, raising the risk of conflict and systemic violence. He critiques liberal democracies’ exceptionalism and highlights colonial and economic histories of exclusion. The article advocates sustainable prevention based on global equity and real-time attention to climate impacts on vulnerable populations.
Gleditsch (2021) – This Time is Different? Neo-Malthusians and Environmental Optimists in the Age of Climate Change
Gleditsch contrasts two views on climate and conflict: Neo-Malthusians foresee scarcity-induced violence, while environmental optimists highlight human adaptability and policy solutions. He finds limited evidence directly linking climate change to conflict, noting the IPCC’s more cautious stance. Rather than alarmism or denial, he suggests a middle ground—acknowledging risks while focusing on institutional resilience, innovation, and poverty alleviation as key to preventing climate-related violence.
Homer-Dixon (1999) – Environment, Scarcity, and Violence
Homer-Dixon identifies environmental scarcity—depletion, unequal access, and population pressure—as a key contributor to conflict, particularly in developing countries. He introduces concepts like structural scarcity and ecological marginalization and stresses the role of institutions and adaptation capacity. Conflict arises indirectly when scarcity strains weak systems, especially where corruption and inefficiency limit innovation. He warns of an “ingenuity gap” where the need for solutions outpaces societies’ ability to adapt.
Mach et al. (2019) – Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict
Mach and co-authors assess climate change as a contributing factor to conflict, finding it has increased global conflict risk by about 5%. However, they stress that climate effects are indirect and secondary to key drivers like poverty, weak institutions, and intergroup inequality. Conflict prevention should focus on institutional adaptation, economic resilience, and post-conflict aid reform. They advocate incorporating climate into risk frameworks, without over-attributing causality.
Dawson, Rosin & Wald (2018) – Global Resource Scarcity: Catalyst for Conflict or Cooperation?
This volume explores how scarcity can lead to either conflict or cooperation. While competition over vital resources often causes tension, shared needs can promote cooperation through treaties and cross-border initiatives. The book critiques simplistic Malthusian models and promotes a distributionist view that stresses inequality and political structures. It also examines how scarcity is socially constructed and calls for sustainable development that genuinely balances growth with environmental preservation.
Selby et al. (2017) – Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited
Selby and colleagues reject the claim that climate change was a key driver of the Syrian civil war. They dispute data used to link drought to the conflict and argue that migration figures and causes were misrepresented. Instead, they highlight policy and economic factors as more significant. The article urges caution in linking climate to conflict and calls for rigorous, evidence-based research that avoids overstated causal claims.
Ehiane & Moyo (2021) – Climate Change, Human Insecurity and Conflict Dynamics in the Lake Chad Region
The authors link climate-induced pasture loss to violent farmer-herder conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin, especially Nigeria. While acknowledging the role of climate change, they stress that conflict also stems from political instability, inequality, and insecurity. They advocate for a cross-border strategy to address environmental degradation alongside structural issues like poverty and arms proliferation. Climate stress amplifies but does not solely cause conflict in this volatile region.
