18 Electoral Processes Flashcards
fixed manually (227 cards)
1
Q
What are the 4 main elections in the US?
A
- Primaries
- Congressional
- Presidential
- Direct elections e.g. ballot measures
2
Q
When are Presidential elections held?
A
The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every 4 years.
3
Q
When are Congressional elections held?
A
The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every 2 years.
4
Q
What are midterms?
A
Congressional elections in the middle of a POTUS term.
5
Q
Which elections have their timings set by the Constitution?
A
Congressional and Presidential elections.
6
Q
Who sets the timings for other elections?
A
Up to the states.
7
Q
Can you give an example of a state setting its own election timetable?
A
April 2020 - height of COVID, Wisconsin had its primaries and local elections, including a State SC race.
8
Q
How can state elections undermine judicial independence?
A
Some US states elect their SC judges.
9
Q
Which state government example shows how Reps tend to favor SC election more than Dems?
A
2025 Kansas state government - 27-13 vote to introduce elected SC justices in State Senate; 27 GOP in favor, all 9 Dems against and 4 GOP against.
10
Q
What kind of election cannot happen in the US?
A
Snap election.
11
Q
What election rules are set out at a federal level?
A
Very few. They are delineated by the Civil Rights Act 1964 and the Voting Rights Act 1965 and mostly concern accessibility e.g. to people with disabilities. Rest up to states
12
Q
What are 3 ways states can reduce democracy?
A
- Gerrymandering
- ID laws
- Access restrictions
13
Q
Can you give an example of an access restriction imposed by the GOP recently?
A
2020 Georgia GOP - Governor Brian Kemp imposes a law which bans giveaways of food and water within certain distances of polling stations.
14
Q
What is the National Nominating Convention?
A
The occasion when the party nominee is formally endorsed for the Presidential election.
15
Q
What is gerrymandering?
A
Deliberate manipulation of electoral districts for party advantage. Happens mostly at 10 year reapportionment.
16
Q
Can you give an example of how voter registration differs between states?
A
Indiana - struck people from register. North Dakota - no requirement to register, just produce ID.
17
Q
How are ballot access laws different between states?
A
States can decide who appears on the ballot differently. E.g. in 2020, Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins did not appear on the ballot in 21 states.
18
Q
What is a majoritarian electoral system?
A
One in which the candidates or parties that receive the most votes win.
19
Q
Are all elections in the US majoritarian? Give an example.
A
No, some are not. E.g. Maine STV and Georgia run-offs.
20
Q
Can you give an example of a Georgia run-off?
A
Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in Georgia, 2020.
21
Q
What is the only federal election with federal rules?
A
Electoral College.
22
Q
Can you give an example of a non-partisan election law?
A
California - top two candidates are selected via a non-partisan primary and then go head to head. 2018 Senate election is Democrat vs Democrat
23
Q
When did Maine introduce STV?
A
2018.
24
Q
What is the name for the non-partisan primary system employed in some states?
A
“Jungle primary”.
25
Can you give an example of how STV in Maine creates controversies?
GOP won the most votes in the first round but the Democrats won in the end. Trump critiqued.
26
Does DC have ECVs?
Yes, 3, since 23A, despite no Senator.
27
When does reapportionment happen?
10 years. Often enough? Texas gained 4 in 2010, a huge jump
28
What are 3 benefits of the US electoral system?
1. Many opportunities for public participation
2. Reflects federalism
3. Primaries and caucuses are more democratic.
29
What are 4 cons of the US electoral system?
1. "Voter fatigue" and cynicism
2. Two-party system
3. Electoral corruption
4. Primaries can split or reduce the gatekeeping role of parties.
30
Who emphasized the gatekeeping role of parties?
Levinsky and Ziblatt in "How Democracies Die". Beware Clinton effect - Sanders voters scammed at WV primary
31
Can you give an example of a time parties manipulated their own primaries?
2016 - Bernie Sanders clearly wins the West Virginia primaries, but Clinton gets the delegates.
32
What are the 6 characteristic features of US electoral campaigns?
CIGSEM
1. Constant campaigning
2. Individualism
3. GOTV
4. Swing states
5. Expensive
6. Midterms.
33
When does campaigning for Presidential elections really start? Indicative of?
The "invisible primaries" after the midterms. CONSTANT ELECTION CYCLE
34
Can you give an example of how the frequency of an election is always on politicians' minds?
COVID-19 - Trump reluctant to declare lockdown, need to shore up economy.
35
What are 3 reasons for individuality in US politics?
1. "Rugged individualism"
2. Donor networks
3. Primaries.
36
What is a quintessential example of an individualistic candidate?
Trump -
1. His own businessman image and deal maker persona.
2. Self-funding - night before 2016 and biggest waste of money
3. Slogans and big rallies
37
Can you give an example of an individual at the state level?
2014 Joni Ernst and the "Make 'em squeal" advert. Won the Iowa Senate Republican candidate.
38
Can you give an example of GOTV being a key tactic?
2004 - Republicans promoted state ballot measures banning same-sex marriage to mobilize Republican leaning voters.
39
What is the opposite of GOTV?
Voter suppression.
40
Can you give 3 examples of voter suppression?
1. 2017 - Indiana passed a law purging voters without notification (overturned by a federal court).
2. Tough ID laws.
3. Georgia - 1.4 million registrations cancelled for inactivity 2012-18.
41
Can you give an example of how swing states refract campaign energy into certain areas?
2016 - 2/3 of campaign events in just 6 states.
42
Which SCOTUS case served to usher in more restrictive laws on voter ID?
2013 - Shelby v Holder. Repealed parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act removing preclearance requirements for states who want to change electoral laws.
43
What states receive disproportionate emphasis during the primaries?
States which go first.
44
Can you give an example of how early momentum is essential in Democratic primaries?
2020 - 4 candidates withdrew after just 2 primaries.
45
Can you give an example of how elections are expensive?
2020 - $14 billion, more than half on COTUS races.
2024 - $16 billion - most expensive in history.
46
Can you give an example which shows that campaign finance is not entirely elitist?
Bernie Sanders - $46 million in February 2020 alone, from 2.2 million separate donations.
47
Can you give an example of how money cannot always win elections? Eval?
2016 - Clinton outspent Trump in all swing states. Clinton outspent Trump more than 2:1
BUT TRUMP HAD $5.9bn of EARNED MEDIA and Clinton only had $2.8bn - Trump got FREE MEDIA REAL ESTATE
48
What term is used to refer to the midterms?
Midterm blues.
49
What is a caveat to the midterm blues?
2002 - Bush - 9/11 backdrop.
50
What are 2 reasons for poor midterm performance?
1. Governments overpromise at the initial election.
2. Lower turnout.
51
Can you give an example of how midterm election victory can lead to investigations?
2019 - House Oversight and Reform Committee begins investigations into Elaine Chao over alleged abuse of office for personal gain.
52
What happened to the Senate in 2018?
Actually went more Republican. Dems defending 26 of the 35 seats up for election, including 10 won by GOP in 2016 Presidential.
53
Can you give an example of personality trumping party in election campaigning?
2018 - Joe Manchin re-elected in West Virginia, most Republican state.
54
Can you give an example of a midterm election which bucks the turnout trend?
2018 - 49% turnout, versus 37% in 2014. "Trump effect".
55
Where do primaries come from?
The progressive era at the beginning of the 20th century, although really became influential after the '70s.
56
What were primaries before the 1970s?
Largely "beauty contests".
57
Can you give an example of a primary as a "beauty contest"?
1960 - JFK wins WV, despite being a Catholic. Hope to campaign
58
What is a caucus? EVAL?
Another way of picking candidates. Very few states use them. 3 states in 2020 used them. Washington switched to primaries in 2020
59
What do primaries/caucuses do specifically?
Guarantee delegates who are pledged to vote for a specific candidate.
60
Can you give an example of how incumbent POTUSs rarely face primary challengers?
Obama 2012 - faced Keith Judd, a convicted felon, in West Virginia, won by a 19 point margin.
61
Can you give an example of how vituperative primaries can be for parties?
2016 - Trump nicknames.
62
What are the 3 types of primary?
1. Open
2. Closed
3. Semi open/semi closed.
63
How does an open primary work?
All registered voters may vote in any party's primary, but only in one primary. E.g. Georgia.
64
How does a closed primary work?
Pre-registered party voters only. E.g. New York and Oregon.
65
What is a semi-open/semi-closed primary?
Only those registered with a party can vote in the primary, unless registered as an independent, in which case they may vote in either, but not both e.g. Rhode Island
66
Which two states are renowned for their early primary/caucus?
Iowa caucus first. New Hampshire first primary.
67
What have states been doing recently regarding primary timing?
Front-loading. E.g. 2020 - California moved its primaries from June to March.
68
How can parties regulate primary timing?
Can decide how many can take place in a given month to reduce "front-loading".
Both parties only allow 4 states to select their candidate in February
69
What is the biggest day in the primary calendar?
"Super Tuesday" - 1/3 of delegates go, with 15 states voting.
70
What are the invisible primaries?
Year or so before the primaries when candidates network and prepare to run.
71
What are superdelegates?
DEMOCRAT ONLY - 16% of total delegate count assigned to Democratic party grandees.
72
Are superdelegates bound in how they should vote at the NNC?
No.
73
How have superdelegates been reformed?
Since 2018, they may only vote in second round nominations.
74
Can you give an example of how primaries can be sensible?
2020 - heart versus the head of the Dems. Bernie was the real Dem, but Biden won because he could beat Trump
75
When was the last brokered convention?
1952 FOR BOTH PARTIES.
76
Can you give an example of how the primaries in 2020 were disrupted?
Iowa Caucus, precinct caucuses were disrupted by tech failures. Many states later postponed or went for mail-in ballots only
Inefficient system
77
What are 4 benefits of the primary/caucus system?
1. Access - allows outsiders to run for office
2. "Road-test" candidates
3. Engage in politics, particularly caucusses
4. Democratic.
78
What are 4 negatives of the primary/caucus system?
1. Can make the system more elitist - money and name recognition
2. Unpopular
3. Can create divisions within parties
4. Caucuses are unsuitable.
79
Does the primary/caucus system make politics more accessible?
No - see the Bushes and the Kennedys for examples.
Trump was an outsider, but its about money. Trump spent about $66million of his own money in 2016
80
What is evidence that primaries/caucuses are unpopular?
2016 - just 35% of voters said primaries work.
Turnout is also low
81
Why are caucuses bad?
1. Lack voter secrecy
2. Lengthy time commitment.
3. 2020 Democrat Iowa caucus - farcical
82
Can you give an example of a division within a party created by a primary/caucus?
2016 Sanders - 12% of his voters went on to vote for Trump - decisive margins in the swing states
83
What are 3 ways the primaries could be reformed?
1. Delaware Plan - sensible. More populous states later
2. A single national primary election - disadvantage small states and campaigns which gather momentum
3. Regional rotating primaries (4 regions) - certain candidates advantaged in some regions
84
Can you give an example of a campaign which gathered momentum over the course of the primaries?
Biden 2020 - came 4th in Iowa, 5th in New Hampshire.
85
What is the nickname for the NNC?
"Coronation" of the candidate.
86
Where do NNCs take place?
Swing states - 2020 Democratic convention took place in Milwaukee.
87
What was the last brokered convention?
Walter Mondale 1984 - even then a clear and quick victory was achieved
88
What are the 3 purposes of the NNC?
1. Poll bounce/publicity
2. Party unity
3. Formal beginning of campaign.
89
What is the cultural purpose of the Electoral College?
Containing mass democracy
1. Poor communication etc.
2. Previous precedent e.g. Imperial electors for the Holy Roman Emperor, Witan etc.
3. No other country before had ever elected their head of state
90
How many electors are there?
538.
91
Does the constitution specify the winner-takes-all basis for ECVs?
No
Some states do split, though none do it proportionally
e.g. Nebraska districting
92
Can you give an example of split ECVs in a state?
Maine 2020 - Biden wins the state, but Trump wins Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
93
Why is the partisan leaning of electors potentially troubling?
They are party faithful e.g. Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton in 2020
94
Can you give an example of faithless electors?
2020 - 3 Dems vote for Colin Powell, ex-Secretary of State, and 1 for Faith Spotted Eagle
95
What are 2 problems of electors?
1. Security risk e.g. 6th January
2. Faithless
96
Who pointed out the unnecessary security and democratic risk of the electors?
1949 Henry Cabot Lodge Jr
Compared to the appendix - only there to one day cause trouble
97
Can you give 3 occasions when the popular vote and the ECV have gone different ways?
1. 1888
2. 2000
3. 2016
Always favours GOP
98
Can you give an example of how the ECV makes elections unnecessarily close?
Gore - nearly half a million more votes than Bush, but came down to 537 votes in Florida
And even then had there been 2 faithless electors the EC would've been hung
99
What is a security risk associated with electors?
The 6th January incident.
100
Who pointed out the unnecessary security and democratic risk of the electors?
Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. in 1949.
101
What are three occasions when the popular vote and the Electoral College Vote (ECV) have differed?
1. 1888
2. 2000
3. 2016
102
How does the ECV affect election closeness?
Example: Gore had nearly half a million more votes than Bush, but lost by 537 votes in Florida.
103
What are two ways the ECV can reach stalemate?
1. No candidate reaches 270 due to 3rd parties - last came close in 1968
2. Both get 269 - POSSIBLE!
104
What are five reasons to replace the Electoral College?
1. The winner of the popular vote can lose the election.
2. Small states are overrepresented.
3. Focus on swing states.
4. Unpopular.
5. Third party suppression.
105
Example of small states being overrepresented by the ECV?
California has 1 vote per 712,000, while Wyoming has 1 vote per 195,000.
106
What evidence shows the Electoral College is unpopular?
In 2020, 61% supported abolition.
107
What are four reasons to keep the Electoral College?
1. A nationwide popular vote might lead to further polarization.
2. It normally works.
3. It could be reformed without abolition.
4. Cultural and federal significance.
108
Who emphasized the importance of the EC on campaigning outcomes?
1964 Goldwater "go hunting where the ducks are"
109
What are three ways the EC could be reformed without abolition?
1. Force electors to vote with state popular vote.
2. Divide electors proportionately.
3. DC state compact.
110
Why is reform of the Electoral College structurally hard to achieve?
2/3 supermajority requirements
Smaller states, destined to lose out, would probably veto
111
How did the SCOTUS reform the EC?
In 2020, it ruled that states can punish electors who refuse to follow the will of the people.
112
What are two ways the EC could be reformed? Eval?
1. National popular vote - recounts and concentration of campaigning
2. Expand the Maine/Nebraska system nationwide - Rucho v Common Cause and gerrymandering
113
Example of how the Maine-Nebraska system could be bad?
If used in 2020, it would have created a margin of 277-261 for Biden, more disproportionate.
114
What is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact?
States will cast their ECVs based on NPV
1. 15 states plus DC signed up by 2021
2. 36% of total college involved
3. Not a single red state signed up
115
What are six key factors determining election outcomes in the US?
IIIMMV
1. Incumbency
2. Issues
3. Media
4. Individual qualities of the candidates
5. Voter profile
6. Money
116
Example of how congresspeople are often more popular than their party presidential nominee?
In 2020, Trump lost Maine, but incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins kept her seat.
117
Example of incumbency being a key factor?
Joe Courtney.
118
Example of incumbency not guaranteeing success?
Joe Donnelly in Indiana lost his Senate seat in 2018 despite the Democratic wave.
119
Example of the high cost of overcoming incumbency?
Total campaign spend in 2018, where Democratic Florida Senator Bill Nelson was ousted, was around $118 million.
120
How do most Presidents benefit from incumbency?
Most serve two terms and gain in their second election, except Obama.
121
What are two examples of how issues can win elections?
1. In 1992, Clinton won on economic matters despite being a Democrat.
2. In 2002, Republicans gained in the midterms with over 90% post-9/11 approval ratings.
122
What kind of event often swings elections at the last moment?
October surprise
James Comey and the FBI investigation in October 2016 and the Access Hollywood Tapes
123
What are four types of media attention for elections?
1. Ads
2. Televised debates
3. Social media
4. Mainstream media
124
Example of a famous TV ad?
The 1964 'Daisy' ad.
125
Example of the rising influence of TV debates?
The 2016 debates set viewing records with 84 million watching.
126
Example of the effect of televised debates?
1. Biden's weak debate performance in 2024 was seen as key to his withdrawal.
2. In 1960, Kennedy won on TV while Nixon won on radio.
127
Key difference of social media to conventional media?
Confirmation bias.
128
What is Tip O'Neill's famous phrase?
House Speaker - "all politics is local"
129
What emphasis does party allegiance get in campaigns?
Very little; some candidates don't even put their party.
130
Example of how personality eclipses party?
Trump in 2020 had 42 million Twitter followers, while @GOP had 2.4 million.
131
What is the corollary of individualism in the American election system?
More susceptible to claims of personal misconduct and getting primaried
E.g. 2012 - Joe Donnelly wins Senate based on comments of Republican opponent on abortion and rape
132
Example of spending not equaling winning?
Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota, 2016, heavily outspent Republican challenger yet lost
Fairly Republican state though
133
What are the main factors in determining how Americans vote?
1. Voter profile (PRIMACY FACTORS)
2. Issues, candidates and opinions formed during the campaign (RECENCY FACTORS)
134
What is a negative vote?
Voting for a candidate 'through gritted teeth' or tactically, e.g., Evangelicals supporting Trump in 2016.
135
What are four facts showing minority groups tend to be more Democrat-leaning?
1. 87% African Americans voted Democrat in 2020.
2. 65% Hispanics voted Democrat.
3. 61% Asian-Americans voted Democrat.
4. 58% of white voters voted for Trump.
136
What are the eight primacy factors?
1. Race
2. Gender
3. Religion
4. Wealth
5. Age
6. Philosophy
7. Sexual orientation
8. Geography
137
Example of gender and voting behavior?
In the 2020 Presidential election, 57% of women voted for Biden and 53% of men for Trump.
138
Example showing the voting difference has changed between genders?
2024 - Centre for American Women and Politics said gender voting gap had narrowed from 12 percentage points to 10 2020-24
139
Example of religion and voting behavior?
In the 2020 Presidential election, 76% of white evangelicals supported Trump, while 65% of those without religious affiliation supported Biden.
140
Counter-evaluation to the idea that religion drives voting behavior?
In 2020, 77% of American Jews voted for Biden, 22% for Trump.
141
Why is wealth and voting behavior somewhat odd?
Rich areas, like the East Coast, vote Democrat, while agricultural/industrial areas vote Republican.
142
What are the income and voting behavior statistics from 2020?
1. 54% of those earning $100,000 plus voted for Trump.
2. 55% of those earning $50,000 or less voted for Biden.
143
Example of how age is a primacy factor?
In 2020, 60% of under 30s voted Democrat, while 54% of over 65s voted Republican.
144
Counter-evaluation to age and voting behavior?
In 2024, 56% of young men voted for Trump.
145
Example of how philosophy influences voting behavior?
In 2020, 85% of conservatives voted for Trump, while 89% of liberals voted for Biden.
146
Example of sexual orientation and voting behavior?
In 2020, 64% of LGBTQ+ people voted for Biden.
147
Example of how rural/urban split shapes voting behavior?
In the 2020 Presidential election, 60% of residents in towns/cities with populations greater than 50,000 backed Biden, while 57% of small-town residents backed Trump.
148
What are important elections known as?
'Realigning elections.'
149
What are two major realignments since WW2?
1. 1968, George Wallace and the Southern Strategy - dogwhistle politics.
2. GOP losing the Coast due to economic liberalism on the decline.
150
What is the 'Solid South'?
The old name for Democratic hegemony in the South, broken by Nixon.
151
Example of dogwhistle politics in 1968?
'Law and order' and 'state's rights.'
152
What are three ways the 1932 election was realigning?
1. New Deal coalition built
2. Swept away neoclassical inhibitions
3. Republican trifecta for the previous 10 years and dominance before that
153
What evidence shows 1932 was a permanent shift?
1. Until 1968, every POTUS besides Eisenhower was a Democrat
2. Congressional dominance, with only 4 years in the period 1932-80 where Democrats didn't have the Senate
154
What ended the New Deal coalition?
Civil Rights and the Jim Crow laws.
155
What are three ways the 2016 election was realigning?
1. Outsiders, including Trump, came into power.
2. Rise of populism, e.g., Bernie Sanders.
3. Midwest defeated, New Deal coalition swept away.
156
Why might white voting behavior begin to mirror that of the South?
Decline in union membership.
157
What is the tradeoff for parties seeking electoral support?
Policies to ensure base turnout versus policies to win over swing voters.
158
Example of a POTUS pressured by both their base and swing voters?
Obama - stopped short of full healthcare because many supportive unions had negotiated good healthcare deals e.g. Culinary Workers Union.
159
Example of a Democratic core group which opposed healthcare reform?
Culinary Workers Union - opposed universal healthcare and in the 2020 primary season opposed Medicare for All plan of Sanders, fearing it would jeopardise hard-won union healthcare plans
160
Which demographic group is often referred to as the 'sleeping giant'?
Hispanic voters
Growing, generally Dem but liable to swing. Many voters left socialist countries so are hesitant of left-wing Democrats. Furthermore, Trump won the highest proportion of Latinos yet
161
Why did Trump win Florida in 2020?
Cuban Americans, 58% of whom are GOP.
162
What evidence shows elections are too costly?
2020 - $14 billion price tag more than the GDP of whole countries e.g. Armenia and Mauritius
163
How does expenditure tend to split in US election cycles?
About 50/50 Congress and POTUS
E.g. 2020 - $14 billion total spent, with $6.6billion on the Presidential race
164
What was the most expensive Senate race in 2020?
South Carolina at $227 million.
165
What evidence shows Americans are sometimes put off by big spenders?
1. 2020 Democratic primaries most expensive yet, with Michael Bloomberg spending $1 billion on campaigning (of his net wealth estimated at $64 billion). In the end did not win anything apart from American Samoa
2. Heidi Heitkamp 2018 North Dakota - raised almost 5x as much, was an incumbent Senator, and lost
166
What evidence shows crowdfunding can be effective in the US?
By the end of March 2020, Bernie Sanders had raised almost $170 million, nearly double the amount raised by Joe Biden by that stage
167
What are two places money on election spending goes?
1. Employing staff and running field offices.
2. Ads and publicity.
168
How much was spent on ads in the 2020 election?
By October 2020 - Biden and Trump combined had spent $750 million on TV ads, but much less ($175 million) on Facebook ads
169
What are the four main sources of campaign funding?
2020:
1. Large individual donations (41.53%)
2. Small individual donations (22.4%)
3. Self-funding (13.0%)
4. PACs (5%)
170
What are the advantages of self-funding?
1. Free from corruption and cronyism.
2. Free from FEC restrictions.
171
What are the disadvantages of self-funding?
1. Makes US politics plutocratic
2. Voters can shun candidates for this e.g. Heidi Heitkamp
172
What are the BCRA limits on individual donations?
1. No individual may donate more than $2800 annually directly to a single candidate's campaign
2. No individual may donate more than $35,500 to a national political party each year
Easy to circumvent
173
What is the PAC spending limit per candidate per year?
$5000, almost twice that of an individual donor
174
What are Leadership PACs?
PACs founded by senior politicians to support their proteges.
175
Example of how proximity of PACs and wealthy donors creates a revolving door?
38% of administration posts in the Trump administration were given to donors.
176
What are facts about Super-PACs?
2020 Brennan Center - $3 billion on federal elections by Super-PACs since their inception
177
What is the federal funding guarantee in the BCRA?
If you limit your total spend, the government will match your expenditure dollar for dollar.
John McCain was the last person to use it, but he kind of had no choice (being the "McCain" in the McCain-Feingold Act...)
178
Example of how spending should not be seen as the be-all and end-all of election winning?
2020 - Highest spending candidate wins only 4 out of the 10 most expensive Senate races. Lower down, money usually indicates winner but this may be because of reverse causation
179
What is the proportion of House and Senate seats won by the highest spender?
House - always over 80%
Senate - always over 60%
Most competitive races less so
180
Example of how money is often just about access?
National Association of Realtors is a heavy spender - but largely spending for access
For instance, spent almost double on Republican in 1996 than Democrat but then spent far more on Democrats than Republicans in 2008
NEEDED ACCESS
181
What evidence shows incumbency/access is where spending goes?
In 2020, incumbents raised on average $22.2 million versus $3.7 million for challengers.
182
What is the main debate in campaign finance?
Constitution vs corruption.
183
What are five arguments for reforming US campaign finance?
1. Fundraising and "constant campaigning", particularly for House districts, distracts representatives from their appointed function
2. Prevents the non-wealthy from entering politics
3. Not all voices represented equally
4. Dark money could lead to corruption
5. Federal intervention has failed, and it is politicising the judiciary
184
Example of how not all voices are represented equally in campaign finance?
There is a 7:1 ratio of PACs to labor groups in total spend.
185
What is 'dark money'?
Money that is not clearly traceable since it is donated to 501(c) groups.
186
What is dark money?
Money which is not clearly traceable since it is donated to 501(c) groups, which do not require origination.
187
What are the main loopholes in the US funding system?
1. Super-PACs
2. 527
3. 501(c) groups
188
What are 4 arguments against campaign finance reform?
1. 1st Amendment
2. Loopholes - hard to reform
3. Pluralism debate and the free market of ideas - campaigns need a broad base of support
4. Not all high spending candidates win
189
What are the 3 main forms of US direct democracy?
1. Ballot initiatives
2. Recall elections
3. Referendums
190
What are 3 facts about ballot initiatives?
1. Laws or measures proposed by voters
2. Must get enough signatures to proceed
3. Most significant and widely used
191
What is an example of how ballot initiatives are often a good way to express views not desired by the main parties?
January 2025 - California State Government confirms that if Calexit gets enough signatures, a ballot initiative for Californian secession and independence could be tabled
192
What is an example of a famous recall election?
2003 - Arnold Schwarzenegger elected Governor of California.
193
What are the 3 types of referendum in the US?
1. Some states require some legislation to be referendum approved
2. ALL states require referendums to change the state constitution
3. Around half of states allow groups who can collect enough signatures to demand a vote asking for an existing law to be vetoed.
194
What is the main difference between US direct democracy and UK?
No national direct democracy in the US.
195
What is an example of a state constitution being changed?
Alabama - 78% of voters supported a 2018 referendum to allow state courthouses to display the Ten Commandments.
196
Which state makes the biggest use of ballot initiatives?
California.
197
Why is direct democracy still not always democratic?
Interest groups often favour them, with large amounts of signatures needed, often by signature farming, e.g. at malls or hiring people to go door-to-door.
198
What is an example of how direct democracy measures are expensive?
2020 alone, campaigns spent $1.2 billion.
199
What is an example of how California is the biggest spender on direct democracy?
2020 $1.2 billion spend nationwide, of which over $220 million was spent on a single California ballot initiative over whether Uber and other taxicab firm workers were employees.
200
What are 4 benefits of direct democracy in the US?
1. Enhances federalism
2. Purer form of democracy
3. Further helps balance state governments e.g. amendment referendums
4. Popular
201
What is an example of how direct democracy is popular?
120 measures in 2020 and 13 in California.
202
What is an example of how pressure groups also target state governments?
2014 - NRA publicly backs a ballot measure to uphold 2nd Amendment rights.
203
What are 4 weaknesses of direct democracy?
1. Where great differences exist between states, it could violate the idea of equal rights and protection between states e.g. Article 4 and pre-Obergefell v Hodges
2. Undermines representative government, with a risk of "tyranny of the majority"
3. Partisan e.g. 2004 ballot initiatives against same-sex marriage to energise Republicans or the 2018 cannabis one in North Dakota to try and support Heidi Heitkamp
4. Undemocratic, with high price tags and more opportunities for pressure groups
204
What is an example of tyranny of the majority from direct democracy?
Ballot initiatives to mandate driving tests in English.
205
What are 2 distinct characteristics of US voting behaviour?
1. Split ticket voting
2. Abstention levels
206
What is evidence that split ticket voting has declined?
1. 1985 - 40% plus are split districts -> 2020 less than 4%
2. 2016 Senatorial - every state POTUS and Senate vote was the same.
207
What is an example of a split-ticket quirk?
Democrat Collin Peterson - Minnesota 7th - His district backed Trump by over 30% in '16. He was the least loyal Democrat in 2008 on party votes, and in 2020 lost his seat in a landslide.
208
What are 3 reasons for split-ticket voting?
1. Personalities > party
2. Broad church parties
3. Lots of opportunities to
209
What are 3 effects of split-ticket voting?
1. Voting behaviour - e.g. Joe Manchin and hesitancy
2. Split-delegations - 2020-22 Senate Ohio had a split delegation
3. Divided government and gridlock.
210
What is an example of how turnout and abstention are higher in the US than the UK?
2016 - 58.1% turnout for Presidential versus 67% plus for 2019 UK GEB.
211
What is the typical primary turnout in the US?
Below 30% typically.
212
What is a counter-eval to low turnout?
1. Higher at some elections e.g. 66.4% in 2020
2. Higher in swing areas e.g. 79.9% in Minnesota in 2020.
213
What is evidence that voter suppression is behind a recent rise in abstention?
2020 when voting was easier, turnout reached near record levels.
214
What are 5 structural reasons for low turnout/abstention in US elections?
1. Proactive registration requirement. All states but ND require registration
2. Ex-felons are barred from voting in some states
3. Some states have severe restrictions on postal voting
4. Some states have restrictive ballot access
5. Voter suppression.
215
What is an example of how voting is lower due to felonies?
Some states restrict ex-felon voting rights, and about 8% of the US has a felony conviction.
216
What is an example of how restrictions on postal voting can depress turnout?
2020 - 68% of ballots cast early or by post.
217
What are examples of tough ballot access laws?
Indiana need 26,699 signatures.
218
What are 4 rational reasons American turnout is low?
1. Lack of choice in a two-party system/majoritarian system
2. Voter fatigue and complex ballot papers, as well as difficult/offputting election procedures
3. Political efficacy - 18% COTUS approval rating
4. Uncompetitive districts.
219
Where is low turnout worst and why?
Primaries. Radical candidates.
220
What is an example of how primary adverse selection can lose elections?
2017 - Alabama Senate special election - Republican Roy Moore lost to the Democrats for being too radical.
221
What is an example of a disproportionate election?
1984 - 97% ECV and 59% of votes.
222
When the exam asks you for a historic election example, what are they referring to?
They are referring to pre-1980.
223
What is the Great Migration?
Concentration of African-Americans in cities and moving to the North have changed demographics. BUT HAVE NOW REVERSED - moving to the South.
224
Which elections have their timings set by the Government? The rest?
Congressional and Presidential
Up to the states
225
6 key factors determining election outcomes in the US
1. Incumbency
2. Issues
3. Media
4. Individual qualities of the candidates
5. Voter profile
6. Money
226
Example of how federal government needs to take control of the campaign finance issue from the SCOTUS?
2010 Citizens United v FEC definitive
But in 2000, FEC paid out nearly $240 million in matched funding, but only $1 million in 2016 - FedGov needs to do more
227
Example of how campaign finance is hard to reform?
Sandra Day O'Connor and John Paul Stevens:
"Money, like water, will always find an outlet."
