Bias and decision making

Question 1

rules of action/thought that define optimality (optimality principles) =

Answer 1

norms

Question 2

_______ is a set of norms

Answer 2

rationality

Question 3

what are the norms of rationality?

Answer 3

be consistent (coherence) and correspond to reality (correspondence)

Question 4

is there a universal set or rational and optimal?

Answer 4

no (nobody can agree on a complete set of norms for reasoning)

Question 5

overestimating frequency = which bias?

Answer 5

availability bias

Question 6

switching your decision based on the question framing = which bias?

Answer 6

framing bias

Question 7

which out of availability and framing bias’ is a correspondence error and which is a coherence error?

Answer 7

availability = correspondence, framing = coherence

Question 8

what is ‘the linda problem’ an example of?

Answer 8

conjunction fallacy (example of bias)

Question 9

decision making method that calculates the option with the highest expected utility =

Answer 9

expected utility theory

Question 10

what is the decision rule for expected utility theory?

Answer 10

choose option with highest expected utility taking into account uncertainty

Question 11

expresses the value of something for its use/preference/enjoyment (not value as in cost) =

Answer 11

utility

Question 12

uncertainty affects _______

Answer 12

expectation

Question 13

what is the formula foe calculating expected utility?

Answer 13

E = p x U (probability x utility)

Question 14

how do you calculate expected utility if there are multiple options?

Answer 14

E = (p1 x U1) + (p2 x U2) etc

Question 15

uncertainty give probability ________

Answer 15

distributions (uncertainty is a distribution around a value)

Question 16

lots of variance = _____ distribution = ____ uncertainty

Answer 16

wide, high

Question 17

is there a unit for utility?

Answer 17

no (utility is the unit)

Question 18

how is rationality bounded?

Answer 18

the world is complex > decisions need to be made quickly, we have limited time, information and cognitive capacity

Question 19

if we can’t always be rational how do we make decisions?

Answer 19

use heuristics

Question 20

is correspondence or coherence more important to use to fit with the environment and why?

Answer 20

correspondence > ecological rationality

Question 21

value of an action across evolutionary time =

Answer 21

adaptive value

Question 22

what is evolution trying to provide you with?

Answer 22

cognitive mechanisms that allow you to be successful in maximising long term expected value

Question 23

what are ways to maximise long term expected value?

Answer 23

average benefit of errors, avoiding costly mistakes, avoid high costs

Question 24

heuristics make assumptions about the _______ about _______ and _______

Answer 24

environment, associations, probabilities

Question 25

what amount of info means the recognition heuristic works well?

Answer 25

small amount of info (compared to no info or a lot of info)

Question 26

what were the results from Goldstein & Gigerenzer's study with german and american ppts?

Answer 26

surprising result > german students more accurate for american cities and american students more accurate for german cities (probs because knew a small amount of info)

Question 27

what amount of info interferes with recognition?

Answer 27

too much info

Question 28

recognition heuristic works when the likelihood of hearing an option correlates with its _____ and doesnt work when incidence isn't related to ______

Answer 28

value

Question 29

what are characteristics of good heuristics?

Answer 29

fast, not too much info, relies on an assumption about the environment

Question 30

give some examples of biases defined by norms

Answer 30

expected utility theory, laws of probability (conjunction problem) formal logic (wason selection task), evolutionary adaptiveness (ecological validity)

Question 31

what are 2 tasks that show human error/bias?

Answer 31

wason's selection task, linda problem

Question 32

task where you should turn over E and 1 but confirmation bias is shown where people usually pick E and 6 which confirm the hypothesis rather than test it. What task is this?

Answer 32

Wason's selection task

Question 33

task to find the rule which generates number sequences. you propose examples and be told if they fit or break the rule. starting example: 2-4-6. what task is this?

Answer 33

Wason's 2-4-6 task

Question 34

what were the results of wason's 2-4-6 task?

Answer 34

most people think of a rule and generate an example that fits (10-12-14) they show confirmation bias and a 'positive test strategy'

Question 35

these tests seek to verify hypothesis (but can find it false) =

Answer 35

positive tests

Question 36

these tests seek to falsify hypothesis (but can find it true)

Answer 36

negative tests

Question 37

when choosing a positive test strategy what is best depends on?

Answer 37

beliefs and how it relates to the truth

Question 38

if the belief rule is specific and the truth rule is general what is the positive test strategy?

Answer 38

always confirms beliefs > belief never improves

Question 39

is the belief rule and the truth rule are both specific what is the positive test strategy?

Answer 39

rapidly converges on the truth

Question 40

wason selection task is designed that people get the _____ strategy according to _____

Answer 40

wrong, logic

Question 41

biases are not mere _____

Answer 41

errors

Question 42

mistakes are one-off, systematic errors are _______

Answer 42

consistent

Question 43

biases are making the wrong choice but for a reason. heuristic errors reveal the normal mechanisms of _______

Answer 43

reasoning

Question 44

what is effortful?

Answer 44

to calculate logic, work out utility calculations

Question 45

give reasons we might make systematic errors

Answer 45

using a strategy optimised for a different environment, considering a different bundle of choices, using a different cost/benefit analysis

Question 46

is a heuristic system 1 or system 2?

Answer 46

system 1 (rational = system 2)

Question 47

give some features of system 1 (heuristic)

Answer 47

comes 1st, share with other animals, quick, automatic, effortless, unconscious

Question 48

give some features of system 2 (rational)

Answer 48

comes from evolution, slow, deliberate, effortful, conscious

Question 49

what system when it gets out of hand causes errors?

Answer 49

system 1

Question 50

the intuitive, effortless system is ______ compared to the slow effortful system being ______

Answer 50

heuristics, rationals

Question 51

any theory where there are 2 systems that can both generate answers and bide for control =

Answer 51

dual process theory

Question 52

what are the predictions of rational vs. heuristic thinking as a dual process theory?

Answer 52

features should go together, people should switch between modes of thinking in the right circumstances

Question 53

if you have more time should you use rational or heuristic thinking?

Answer 53

rational

Question 54

a psychological theory that posits 2 processes that work at the same time or support the same capacity =

Answer 54

dual process theory

Question 55

in dual process theory what are features of the 2 processes?

Answer 55

usually work together but can be in conflict together, one usually has system 1 like properties and the other system 2 like properties

Question 56

when will you see biases?

Answer 56

features of normal cognitive processes (memory, attention, planning), can affect all people, part of thinking

Question 57

biases are defined against norms =

Answer 57

standards of rationality