3 Main Ways the Government can raise revenue
If receipts are higher, there is a
budget surplus and the state is saving money
If receipts are lower, there is a
budget deficit that is funded through additional borrowing.
Structural deficit:
fiscal position once the short-term impact that a recession has on spending and taxes has been taken out.
○ Tax system should have 4 maxims:
Proportionality
Certainty
Convenience
Economical
In reality higher taxes reduce the
incentives for working and at some point we would expect people to alter their behavior.
Dynamic Effects of Taxes
Risks of high taxes are unseen effects:
the difference between the amount of activity taking place currently, versus how much would take place in an alternative tax regime. Easiest way to avoid tax is simply by avoiding work.
Bond
debt security - promise to pay a certain amount of money at specified points in the future (usually this will be an annual return)
Supply of bonds is therefore the equivalent of the
demand for loanable funds.
The concept of ‘interest’ provides this reward -
it compensates people for giving up their ownership of resources for a period of time.
Interest rate:
ratio of money in the present with money in the future. It is the price of time.
The balance between consumption and investment is determined in the
market for loanable funds. Some people are patient, have money to spare and are willing to exchange present goods for even greater future goods (savers). Other people want to bring forward their future income and spent it today (borrowers). The supply and demand for loanable funds operate like any market and generate an equilibrium quantity (the amount of lending) and equilibrium ‘price’ (the interest rate).
bond contains
3 Determinants of bond prices
Inflation expectations
Interest rate expectations
Economic confidence
current yield
The current yield is the interest rate based on the buying price as opposed to the nominal value. It shows us the return that the bondholder would get if they held it for a certain period of time, and can be calculated as the coupon divided by the market price. If the prices fall the yield will rise (there is an inverse relationship).
yield to maturity
helps us to see what return the bondholder might expect since it incorporates as assumption that coupons are reinvested, and that the bond will be held until it matures.
yield curve
relation between the interest rate (cost of government borrowing_ and the time to maturity. The long the time period the greater the interest rate needs to be to compensate lenders
inverted yield curve
occurs when long term yields fall below short-term yields.
Use bond markets for
2. Estimate soverign default risk
Real Variables
quantities and relative prices