H12: Economische impact van de coronacrisis en de oorlog in Oekraïne, met speciale focus op de Belgische economie Flashcards
Hoe voorspellen in onzekere tijden?
Covid-19: welk soort schok?
The global Covid-19 shock is unprecedented in recent history and is simultaneously:
• a human shock as most countries worldwide face a massive health crisis
• a supply shock coming from a reduction in intermediate inputs (due to disruptions in transport and global value chains) and a reduction in labour (directly because workers were sidelined by the virus and indirectly due to travel restrictions and workers staying home to take care of sick family members or children)
• a demand shock coming from reduced consumption due to the lockdowns (closed shops, bars, restaurants,…; no international tourisms and travel,…) and due to increased uncertainty (more precautionary savings and wait-and-see attitude)
• a financial shock (???) coming from companies massively going bankrupt with in the end possibly a new financial crisis → NO: by now, we can say that a financial shock has been prevented, thanks to massive government support
Bij aanvang crisis voorjaar 2020: twee extreme visies (1)
This is not a normal recession, but a temporary standstill, due to Covid-lockdown
measures:
• “The car doesn’t drive because of the red light, not because the engine is not working. Once the light turns green, the car will drive again, although some cars will restart faster than others.”
▪ Effective policy response “whatever it takes, whatever it costs”:
• Maintains the economy hibernated, i.e. keeps the productive capacity ready for a post-coronavirus restart
• Vicious cycle prevented, no massive lasting damage
• Weak firms will go bankrupt, but will be replaced be new firms (i.e. normal
functioning of the market)
Bij aanvang crisis voorjaar 2020: twee extreme visies (2)
The shock from Covid-19 is likely to unleash several behavioural and structural
shifts, or accelerate existing trends, that could condition the economy for more
years to come:
• Lasting changes in the behaviour of consumers and businesses (more cautious, 1.5 meter economy, delay of investments,…) and governments (restructuring of public finances)
• A substantial number of businesses going bankrupt
• Higher (structural) unemployment for a longer period of time
• Increased protectionism and deglobalisation
• …
▪ Meaning in the end: lower potential GDP growth in the years ahead
Analyse van de internationale conjunctuur
Wat is de gebruikelijke aanpak?
High-frequency indicator watching:
• Soft indicators/surveys: consumer/producer confidence, export orders,…
• Hard indicators: industrial production, retail sales, labour market data,…
→ Inschatten hoe de verschillende bbp-componenten (consumptie, investeringen,
netto-uitvoer) het huidige en de volgende kwartalen zullen evolueren
▪ Gebruik van diverse tools en modellen:
• Tool decompositie bbp-groei
• Now-casting modellen, VAR-modellen,…
Covid-19: visie KBC Economics mei 2021
OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
BASE SCEARIO
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO
optimistic scenario
> Economy
Already in the first half of 2021, a steep and steady recovery will lead to a faster return to pre-corona activity levels + inflationary tendencies due to very strong (fiscal) stimulus. The recovery will be supported by a sharp
improvement of consumer and business confidence, leading a rebound of consumption and investment growth.
> Virus evolution
Virus spread and impact faster under control thanks to earlier than expected large-scale availability of (vaccine(s)),allowing a sooner lifting of social distancing measures and other precautionary measures.
base scenario
economy: The economic damage of the second wave is limited
compared to the first wave, as more targeted lockdowns temper the overall impact on GDP. The announcement and roll-out of vaccination campaigns will gradually restore consumer and business confidence. However, as the vaccination process will take time, the recovery will be gradual. It will take until the second half of 2021 for the mass roll-out of vaccines to reinforce the recovery. Fiscal stimulus will further support growth, while keeping
inflation moderate.
virus evolution: Virus spread and impact sufficiently under control
thanks to continued and material social distancing
and other precautionary measures. The start of
vaccination and wider testing and tracing will only
allow a very moderate easing of precautionary
measures in H1 2021. From mid-2021 on, the
normalisation of socio-economic interactions will
be helped by the mass roll-out of effective
vaccines. However, as the vaccination process will
take time, a full relief of social distancing measures
and normalisation of socio-economic interactions
will not happen before 2022. A third pandemic wave
(with severe economic impact) will be avoided.
pessimistic scenario
economy: During 2021, another (series of) shock(s) takes place,
leading to an interrupted and unsteady recovery
path. Consumer and business risk aversion remain
high, weighing on consumption (much higher
savings rate) and investment demand.
The negative growth impact of on-off lockdowns
will be enhanced by increasing bankruptcies and
unemployment. As the economy partially
restructures, the pace of the recovery to potential
output will be slow.
Activity levels remain well below the pre-corona
levels for some time to come + disinflationary
tendencies.
virus evolution: The virus reappears and continues to weigh on
society and economy, because of setbacks in the
vaccination process (e.g. logistical problems,
disappointing immunity results, …) or insufficient
socio-political support for maintaining sufficiently
stringent precautionary measures for a sufficiently
long period of time.
This necessitates on-off (partial) lockdown periods
that have a strong impact on economic activity.
covid 19: 4 dubbele shock
> a human shock as most countries worldwide face a massive health crisis
a supply shock coming from a reduction in intermediate inputs (due to disruptions in transport and global value chains) and a reduction in labour
a demand shock coming from reduced consumption due to the lockdowns (closed shops, bars,restaurants,…; no international tourisms and travel,…) a
a financial shock (???) coming from companies massively going bankrupt with in the end possibly a new financial crisis → NO: by now, we can say that a financial shock has been prevented, thanks to massive government support
financiële shock: covid 19
> door massieve overheidsondersteuning is een financiële shock uit kunnen blijven
scarring
> blijvende impact van covid
> WEL in europa, NIET in de vs
Europees perspectief - Eurozone
Vertrouwen van consumenten en producenten piekte na corona, maar vooral consumentenvertrouwen opnieuw zwaar onderuit sinds invasie Rusland in Oekraïne
Europees perspectief - Eurozone
> Na sterk herstel in Q3 2020, opnieuw negatieve groei tijdens nieuwe
covid-19 golf. Landenverschillen inzake mate waarin bbp-niveau van
vóór de crisis terug is bereikt
> Vertrouwen van consumenten en producenten piekte na corona, maar
vooral consumentenvertrouwen opnieuw zwaar onderuit sinds invasie
Rusland in Oekraïne
Internationaal perspectief – Verenigde Staten
Bijzonder zware directe impact van covid-19 op de arbeidsmarkt,
maar intussen is werkloosheidsgraad terug op precrisisniveau
Why Belgium’s energy inflation is so high
> Belgian energy inflation is more sensitive to short-term changes in wholesale prices, leading to a more direct transmission of energy price fluctuations into
the headline inflation
The proportion of variable contracts for electricity and gas in Belgium is larger than in the neighbouring countries or the euro area, where it is mainly fixed contracts that are offered.
Belgium has a greater weight of the variable component (i.e., energy
component) in gas bills and in the price of liquid fuels (cf. low excise duties on heating oil, low network tariffs for gas), meaning a more substantial pass-through of wholesale energy prices to consumer prices.
