judging problems & frequencies

Question 1

what are heuristics?

Answer 1

simplifying strategies that reduce effort

Question 2

what is ecological rationality?

Answer 2

biases may be rational responses given the ecology of the human decision maker

Question 3

how do we examine ecological rationality?

Answer 3

examine the environment and how it guides our decisions

Question 4

what 3 things make up the intuitive thinking system?

Answer 4

availability, anchoring and representativeness

Question 5

what is availability?

Answer 5

try to think an example of something happening to judge how probable it is

Question 6

what did Lichtenstein et al (1978) discover about estimating probabilities?

Answer 6

people overestimate rare events and underestimate common events

Question 7

what did tversky & kahneman (1973) find in their availability study?

Answer 7

they chose the gender that had the most famous names in, even though the opposite was true

Question 8

what is the conjunction fallacy?

Answer 8

decide that one probability is more likely than the other

Question 9

what did tversky & kahneman (1983) discover in their conjuction fallacy study?

Answer 9

easier to bring ‘ing’ words to mind than ‘n_’ words

Question 10

what is representativeness?

Answer 10

probability of something based on stereotypes

Question 11

what is base rate neglect?

Answer 11

ignoring the occurrence of something

Question 12

what did tversky & kahneman (1973) find in their base rate neglect study?

Answer 12

made decisions based on description and stereotypes rather than the occurrence of something

Question 13

what is anchoring?

Answer 13

information beforehand will affect a decision

Question 14

what did tversky & kahneman (1974) discover in their anchoring study?

Answer 14

final estimate was based on anchor value spun on wheel

Question 15

what did chapman & johnson (1999) find in their anchoring study?

Answer 15

estimates correlated with anchor value on security card

Question 16

what is the anchor and adjust heuristic?

Answer 16

make estimate based on anchor and adjust up if low number or down if high number

Question 17

what is the issue with the anchor and adjust heuristic?

Answer 17

people dont adjust their value enough

Question 18

what did epley & gilovich (2005) say about accurate anchor and adjusting?

Answer 18

incentives, warning and cognitive capacity has little effect on accuracy

Question 19

what are natural frequencies?

Answer 19

probabilities expressed in successes and failures rather than percentages

Question 20

what are humans better adapted to - natural frequencies or percentages?

Answer 20

natural frequencies

Question 21

what did eddy (1982) discover in his natural frequencies study?

Answer 21

most doctors failed to answer probability question using percentages

Question 22

what did gigerenzer & colleagues find in their natural frequencies study?

Answer 22

most doctors got probability question right when using natural frequencies

Question 23

are people good at judging whether something is random?

Answer 23

no

Question 24

what three things make up the misperception of randomness?

Answer 24

• gambler’s fallacy
• hot hand fallacy
• representativeness heuristic

Question 25

what is gambler's fallacy (croson & sundali, 2005)?

Answer 25

think streak of one outcome will cause a different outcome

Question 26

what is the hot hand fallacy (gilovich et al, 1985)?

Answer 26

think streak is unrepresentative of randomness and predict streak will continue

Question 27

what is the representativeness heuristic (tversky & kahneman, 1971)?

Answer 27

judge sequence based on how representative it is

Question 28

what did ayton & fisher (2004) discover in their misperception of randomness study?

Answer 28

predict change if have a long streak (gambler's) but confidence depends on how often they have been right (hot hand)

Question 29

what did gilovich et al (1985) discover in their misperception of randomness study?

Answer 29

it is not a random process and a streak will continue

Question 30

what is a common issue with past experience?

Answer 30

there is inappropriate generalisation of past experience

Question 31

what are random mechanical outcomes?

Answer 31

sampling without replacement

Question 32

what is intentional human performance?

Answer 32

positive recency

Question 33

what did ayton & fisher (2004) find in their past experience study?

Answer 33

sampling without replacement results in fewer streaks, think basketball hoops will have more streaks than coin toss

Question 34

what did hahn & warren (2009) say about memory constraints?

Answer 34

we can only hold a short subsection of a sequence in memory e.g. the last 4 outcomes

Question 35

what is gambler's fallacy driven by?

Answer 35

rational judgment but it is biased by a limited working memory capacity