Session 4

Question 1

What are Germany’s strategic predicaments in 2025?

Answer 1

• Breakdown of Germany’s business model
• Defense experts expect Russia to be ready to wage war against a NATO member in about five years
• Uncertaincy about US reliance
  Neighbors are facing huge political and economic challenges as well
• Economic model is under intense pressure
• Political center is challenged by fringe parties (far-right)

Question 2

What are geopolitical post-war certainties elites believe in?

Answer 2

• US as guardian of the liberal international order, and European power in the longterm
• EU continuing on its path towards an “ever closer union”
• Russia is (difficult) partner for the West
• Economic interdependencies lead to shared interests and will help socialize “outsiders” to become “responsible stakeholders” in the liberal international order
• Liberal democracy is only legitimate form of government in world and will continue to spread globally
• Military force becomes less important, other means of exerting power more important
• Wars in future will be civil wars, traditional interstate wars are largely past
• Global governance will effectively address global challenges (climate change)

Question 3

How big is the peace dividend and investment deficit

Answer 3

680 billion Euro peace dividend and 230 billion Euro investment deficit

Question 4

How has Zeitenwende changed German’s policy?

Answer 4

• Germany most important military supporter of Ukraine after the US
• Reducing energy dependence and more renewable energies
• More responsibility towards allies

Question 5

What does more responsibility towards allies mean?

Answer 5

• Germany reluctant to strengthen collective defense efforts in NATO
• Continued to defend the restrictions of the NATO-Russia Founding Act
  even after annexation of Crimea
• Thought of its efforts on the Eastern flank as ”reassurance” not
  “deterrence”
• Reluctant to send signals of deterrence, key politicians criticized NATO
  maneuvers as ”saber-rattling”
• Several politicians questioned Germany’s continued commitment to NATO’s
  nuclear sharing arrangement
• For many years, clear gap between ”principled allied solidarity” and “practical
  allied solidarity” in German public opinion
• After Russia’s full-scale invasion, German respondents expressed increased
  support for “practical allied solidarity”
• But gap remains!
• Germany was the first “enhanced Forward Presence” lead nation that
  offered to deploy a brigade to one of the host nations
• Has also doubled down on its nuclear commitments.

Question 6

Why didn’t Germany develope a proper defense machine even after annexation of crimea?

Answer 6

• German FP change has been limited because leaders were in a position to pursue a strategy of buck-passing (=shifting responsibility to other)
• Germany‘s comfortable geographic position, defensive military advantages, credible allies, and sober cost-benefit analysis are key factors limiting its strategic adaptation