Session 6 Flashcards
(15 cards)
Why are rising powers often seen as troublemakers?
As states grow stronger, leaders expand interests, seek more influence, and challenge boundaries, institutions, and status. They push for resources, markets, security, and louder regional voices—often feeling unfairly excluded from past gains.
How are the US and China competing for dominance in Asia and beyond?
The US and China are locked in a strategic rivalry involving military, economic, and geopolitical competition. China asserts control over nearby waters, builds new global institutions (like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Belt and Road Initiative), sets its own economic rules, protects its markets, and often disregards international norms—challenging US influence and the existing order.
US - China relations prior to 2010?
US govts believed China’s rise should be respected if conformed with rules, norms, institutions of existing international order
China’s rise should not threaten the security or sovereignty of US allies or the stability of the wider Asia-pacific
Xi Jingping: China should become moderately prosperous society by 2021 (achieved) and fully advanced economy by 2049
“The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”
→ China to become a global super power on par (or superior) to US
Made in China 2023 Strategy → intends to dominate major global high-tech markets by
2049
Europe Role in China’s Rising
China wants to undermine transatlantic unity and EU unity if hostile toward China?
US wants to get EU support?
China has interest in demonstrating that all “Western” democracies weak and chaotic
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They offer powerful counter case to core arguments underpinning China’s
authoritarian model
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State control is essential preconditions for national greatness and individual prosperity
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In the case of a conflict over Taiwan, Europe should not fall in line with the United
States.
What’s a domestic politics explanation for China?
Xi Jingping’s strategy to stay in power
1. Economic prosperity for all (socialism with Chinese characteristics)
2. Social control
3. Nationalism
What are the priorities of Xi Jinping’s New Development Concept (2020)?
Prioritizes security, political stability, and economic equality over rapid individual wealth. Favors societal cohesion over economic efficiency and national self-sufficiency over open international exchange.
What is China’s “dual circulation” economic strategy? (Xi Jinping)
Focuses on boosting domestic consumer demand (“internal circulation”) and shifting from low-cost exports to high-value exports and selective imports (“external circulation”).
How is social control implemented in China under Xi Jinping?
Uses widespread surveillance (AI-enabled cameras, phone tracking), cashless payments for transaction monitoring, a social credit system, restrictions on churches, private schools, and foreign teachers/textbooks—creating a powerful surveillance state.
How does nationalism shape China’s policies under Xi Jinping?
Promotes collective pride in China’s global resurgence. Seeks “complete reunification” with Taiwan, viewing it as a nationalistic goal and historical task to undo the legacy of the Chinese Civil War.
China’s view of US
Insufferably arrogant, condescending, systematically incapable of treating China or its leaders with respect/equality
Scenario 1: How might China incorporate Taiwan without military confrontation?
China prepared to make a decisive military move to take the island, Taiwan concludes that the US would not defend it → Taiwanese domestic politics agree to conduct secret negotiations with Beijing to join some form of “greater Chinese confederation”
Scenario 2: How could Washington and Taipei deter Beijing?
Deterrence; Beijing becomes more aware of military limits; economic turmoil in China shifts spending to maintain social harmony.
Scenario 3: China succeeds in taking Taiwan by force as the US decides against military intervention - how can that look like
US most likely impose sanctions on China → global economic repercussions (EU reaction?)
Geostrategic standing and international moral authority of the US decrease due to failure to defend a democracy with whom it had been a de facto ally for ¾ century (Japan, South Korea, Australia reaction?)
Scenario 4: What if the US defeats Chinese military action against Taiwan?
What would “defeating” Chinese military actually mean?
Domestic stakes in Beijing to secure victory very high
Xi might be predisposed to escalate a military
China has interest in lengthening war, count on US war fatigue
Massive economic repercussions (EU reaction?)
Scenario 5: What if China defeats US forces intervening for Taiwan?
De facto end of the American century. US treaty allies seek accommodation with Beijing, and China may make further military moves in Asia-Pacific.
