Session 5

Question 1

What’s defense Realism?

Answer 1

States seek only enough power resources to ensure their survival
→ Russia’s survival is threatened by NATO

Question 2

Offensive realism?

Answer 2

States (especially great powers) are inherently aggressive
(power-maximizers). They seek dominance not just security.
→ Russia is trying to maximize its power in face of European weakness and NATO
disunity

Question 3

What are some Active Russian campaigns to accelerate European decline?

Answer 3

1. Support for Populist and Far-Right Movements
2. Disinformation and Cyber Warfare
3. Energy and Economic Leverage

Question 4

What’s the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement?

Answer 4

• March 2012 → EU and Ukraine initiated negotiations of Association Agreement
  (AA)
• Agreement would not be ratified unless Ukraine addressed democracy and rule-of-law concerns
• Yanukovych urged parliament to adopt laws to ensure that
• August 2013 → Russian Custom Service stopped all goods from Ukraine
• November 2013 → Ukrainian govt decree suspended preparations for AA →
  Euromaidan

Question 5

What are Ideological (psychological) perspectives?

Answer 5

• States are non-rational actors. They use cognitive, psychological or cultural processes
  to identify and select policy options
• Biases, constraints, or tendencies have

Question 6

Does Putin need to be afraid of domestic opposition?

Answer 6

• Putin’s political strategy post 2012 (mass protests in Russia)
• Increase repression of opposition
• Delegitimize the urban middle class, accusing them of being manipulated
  by the West
• Focus on “silent majority” (industrial workers, public sector employed,
  pensioners, rural residents)
• Polling shows they want to “regain prestige, Russia on the rise,
  make RUssia great again”
• Gain support through conservative Russian orthodox elements (West as
  decadent and liberalism gone overboard)

Question 7

What are some Russian Future Scenarios?

Answer 7

• Scenario 1: Possible ceasefire/peace agreement? Under what conditions can it hold?
• Scenario 2: Ceasefire does not hold. Possible Russian successful assault and
  occupation of Ukraine → Ukrainian insurgency?
• Scenario 3: Europe will support the insurgency. Russian retaliation against Europe?
• Scenario 4: Russian/Chinese/North Korean/Iranian joint strike?