Session 8

Question 1

MAD - Mutual Assured Destruction, only works if

Answer 1

• Weapons need are deliverable
• Survivable second-strike retaliatory forces prevent preemptive first strike
• Both sides are risk-neutral, rational, and in total control of “command and control”

Question 2

What does Rational Irrationality after Thomas Shelling mean?

Answer 2

Manipulating the threat of nuclear war: If nuclear war between US and SU, it will result from a process that is not entirely foreseen, from reactions that are not fully predictable, from decisions that are not wholly deliberate, from events that are not fully under control

Question 3

What are the stakes of the Berlin Crisis?

Answer 3

West-Berlin might get nuclear weapons - would US actually use nuces?
Game of chicken, SU is weaker –> has less too loose. Consequence: US irrationality

Question 4

Negotiating aims of arms control

Answer 4

1. Making a surprise attack [counterforce] impossible
2. Eliminate Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems
3. No-first use policy

Question 5

How is ARMS CONTROL ≠ DISARMAMENT?

Answer 5

Overall aim of arms control: !strategic stability!
* War in the nuclear age breaks out as a result of crisis instability and misperception.
* Forces and tactics need to be designed to prevent a first strike; to enable cooperation with the adversary; and promote a high threshold of nuclear weapons use.

Question 6

What is the US Grand Strategy of Nuclear inhibition?

Answer 6

1. Legal/normative strategies: IAEA, NPT, Zanggar Committee and Nuclear Suppliers Group.
2. Coercive strategies: sanctions, sabotage, threats of abandonment, preventive military strikes against nascent nuclear threats.
3. Assurance strategies: intelligence activities, conventional arms sales, security arrangements and alliances.

Question 7

Why proliferate / Warum sich ausbreiten?

Answer 7

• Power-based lens: Any state that seeks to maintain its national security must balance against any rival state that develops nuclear weapons
• Domestic politics lens: domestic actors encourage governments to pursue the bomb. Nukes are used to shore up domestic public support in moments of economic recession or domestic upheaval.
• Psychological lens: nukes enhance a nation’s prestige. They are part of what some
  states believe they have to possess to be legitimate, modern, powerful states.

Question 8

Why nuclear weapons for Iran?

Answer 8

Realist lens: security threats from Israel, the U.S (and Saudi Arabia).

Liberal lens: domestic pressure to get
the bomb (e.g., from the military and
nuclear scientists). Government in
trouble reinforces need to appease
interest groups and rally the public.

Constructivist lens: Iran in search for
prestige and international recognition.

Question 9

Why Nuces in North Korea?

Answer 9

Realist lens: security threats in
particular from South Korea (and the U.S.)

Liberal lens: Nuclear weapons as a
bargaining stick.

Constructivist lens: North Korea in
search for prestige and international
recognition

Question 10

Three functions of U.S. nuclear
sharing

Answer 10

1. Non-proliferation: by hosting nuclear US weapons the promise of extended deterrence became materially tangible. Less need to have own nuclear weapons.
2. Political cohesion: gives a voice to non-nuclear states.
3. Military flexibility: nuclear sharing enhances the strategic effectiveness of nuclear deterrence by offering a wider and more credible array of force options.