Chapter 23 Flashcards
(93 cards)
1
Q
What is cognitive bias
A
The influence of factors that shape how we interpret informant, weigh its relevance and ultimately decide upon a course of action or inaction
2
Q
Cognitive bias plays a role in the ___- thinking and decisions making process
A
Critical
3
Q
What term do psychologists use to describe the actual operating state of the human mind
A
Bounded rationality
4
Q
Cognitive bias in the decision making process results in eight common traps. Four of them are 1. overconfidence bias, 2. sunk cost effect, 3. availability bias, 4. confirmation bias, name the other four
A
Anchoring bias
Illusory bias
Hindsight bias
Egocentrism
5
Q
In terms of cognitive bias, what does sunk cost effect mean
A
Escalating the commitment to a course of action simply because of the cost of resource already invested, despite poorer performance
6
Q
In terms of cognitive bias, what does availability bias mean
A
Placing too much emphasis on information already available versus information needed
7
Q
Which cognitive bias is most prevalent
A
Confirmation bias
8
Q
Which cognitive bias allows an initial reference point to distort estimates, even when the initial reference point is completely arbitrary
A
Anchoring bias
9
Q
Which cognitive bias tends to jump to conclusions about the relationship between two variable when no correlation exists
A
Illusionary bias
10
Q
What is hindsight bias
A
the tendency to judge past events as easily predictable when they weren’t foreseeable
11
Q
Which cognitive bias occurs when we attribute e more credit to ourselves for the group or collaborative outcome than an outside unbiased party would
A
Egocentrism
12
Q
As decision makers, what three techniques may airmen use to counter cognitive biases
A
After action reviews
Seeking unbiased outside expert input
Creating a decision environment that encourages candid dialogue and vigorous debate
13
Q
Which of the three techniques AMN use to counter cognitive biases is thought to be the most effective method
A
Creating a decision environment that encourages candid dialogue and vigorous debate
14
Q
How do mental frameworks and shortcut help simplify our understanding of a complex world
A
They help us process information quickly and efficiently
15
Q
Mental frameworks contribute to cognitive bias T/F
A
True
16
Q
Mental frameworks consist of our ___ about how things are related and work
A
Assumptions
17
Q
How we frame a problem influences the decision we make. When is this effect particularly noticeable
A
When we frame a challenge as either a risk or an opportunity
18
Q
What is the Prospect theory
A
The belief that framing a situation as a potential gain causes decision makers to act differently than framing the same situation as a potential loss
19
Q
According to the Prospect theory, are people willing to take greater risks when faced with potential losses or when faced with potential gains
A
When faced with potential loses
20
Q
At the org level, how are threats to our comfortable framework of assumptions often met
A
With rigid resistance
21
Q
At the organizational level, how are changes seen as opportunities usually met
A
With flexible and adaptable approaches
22
Q
When confronting change at the Org level, AMN are subject to their initial frameworks. How do those frameworks limit them
A
They Limit the information taken in, the willingness to assess information fairly and without bias, and ultimately restrict the solution sets that are created
23
Q
What is the drawback when decision makers choose a course of actin based on intuition alone
A
It often means a whole series of alternatives are not considered or objectively analyzed
24
Q
In decision making, what is intuition based upon
A
Previous experience and matching patterns from those experiences to cues picked up in the current environment
25
For decision makers intuition is both a powerful guide and a potential decision trap T/F
True
26
In challenging or ambiguous situations why is the intuition of even highly experience professionals risky
The complexity involved can obscure pattern recognitions that are relied on with intuition. As a result even eeriness AMN can mistakenly apply incorrect or outdated models that result in poorer decision making
27
Why should AMN especially leaders within an org hold back personal opinions and avoid imposing mental frames on themselves and their team
To create an environment where critical thinking can be exercised. This will widen the range of advice and alternatives that will be offered
28
There is a natural tendency to view change as threating T/F
True
29
Name on way Amn in a position of responsibility can avoid the human tendency to continue a course of action due to sunk costs
By properly using a commination of intuitive judgment and formal analysis
30
Formal ____ can check intuition and ensure you challenge your intuitive judgment rather than confirm it
Analysis
31
Which is more critical: recognizing the value of intuition or guarding against a lack of analysis in the decision making process
Both are equally critical
32
Intuition can be replace with rules and procedures T/F
False
33
When communication intuitive decision, seeing feedback and conveying intent, what five step process should you sue to address decision teams
Step 1 - Hers what I think we face
Step 2 - Here's what I think we should do
Step 3 - Hers why
Step 4 - Here's what we should keep our eye on
Step 5 - Now talk to me
34
In critical thinking when does reasoning by analogy occur
When we assess a situation and match it to similar experiences we have encountered assuming that they are alike
35
At the conscious level, AMN can deliberately us analogies to frame a decision making process. What purpose does this serve
It saves time and provides clues about possible courses of action and implications
36
at an unconscious level, analogies play a large role in intuition T/F
True
37
What critical thinking trap is inherent in the use of analogies
They can lead us to focus on similarities between events and downplay important differences
38
To avoid the critical thinking trap inherent when using analogies, what techniques can help you clearly separate fact from assumption
Make to lists- one describing similarities and the others describing differences
Write down and clearly define what you know, what is unknown and what you presume about the situation you are analyzing
39
What action is at the heart of how we apply the baits of mind necessary for good critical thought
The act of questioning our assumptions in any decision process
40
Conventional wisdom holds that groups make better decisions than individuals. Yet may groups fail to make good decisions why?
Failure to merge diverse ideas and recognize potential synergies. As a result they fail to capitalize on the teams divers talents
41
To consciously structure the groups decision making process to encourage critical thinking, what four things must leaders decide
Who should be involved in the decision process
In what sort of environment the decision takes place
How the participants will communicate
How the leader will control the decisions process
42
Name several common reason why leaders often fail to decide how to decide when faced with group decisions
Bias, lack of time, framing, personnel shortages and outside pressures
43
When it comes to critical thinking, why do some argue that groups are more intelligent than individual experts
Because the aggregation of their judgment leads to a better answer, even though they are not a group of experts
44
To be effective decision makers, groups of non experts must be divers and represent many different disciplines, perspective and areas of expertise. What else is required
They must be decentralized, able to effectively aggregate all the individual judgments and most importantly they must contain members who are independent
45
Because AMN share a heritage and commitment to teamwork, what trap must they guard against to ensure critical thinking in the group environment
The trap of ignoring information in an effort to find common ground
46
With group decisions, why is it important not to over filter the data as it moves up the decision chain
It can prevent decision makers from having access to the nuances of discussions that occur during the decision process
47
When forming a decision making team, it is important to remember that individuals must be able to sway others in the crowd and that the interdependence and hierarchy of group members can neutralize the benefits of group decision. Name three more things you should be aware of
Pressure to conform and fractionalization of groups into subgroups can prevent honest analysis
Letting individuals dominate discussions can inhibit less aggressive member s of the group
Make sure all group members feel personally accountable for the groups outcome
48
What well known decision trap is a major reason groups make flawed decisions
Groupthink
49
When does groupthink occur
When tremendous pressures within the team for conformity and a desire for unanimity drive decision making at the expense of true critical thinking
50
When candid dialogue between team members and real assessment of options is missing from group decision making, where do groups tend to misspend most of their time
Tweaking proposed solutions rather than examining evidence and the assumptions necessary to create new options
51
Groupthink is affected by the ___ of the group, reporting and supervisory chains, and the permanent versus long term natures of the group involved
Homogeneity
52
Within groups, especially long standing groups, individuals often self sensor in an effort to avoid being ostracized and marginalized. What fallacy develops with the team when this occurs
Each member erroneously believes the other team member unanimously support a decision or course of action, which makes it harder to present dissenting options
53
Amn must be aware of what six symptoms of groupthink
Feels it is invulnerable and cannot fail
Has an inherent belief that they are better than their rivals
Reutilizes disconfirming data and warning signs away
Feels it is unanimous in its support for particular views
Majority pressures dissenting views
Members self sensor rather than challenge the majority perspective
54
For some group decisions, ____ consultation may be the only way to avoid groupthink
Outside
55
Name five ways AMN can minimize structural barriers to candid dialogue and reduce groupthink tendencies within their organization
Reduce structural complexity and information filtering
Define roles within the decision making teams
Reduce homogeneity of the teams composition
Reduce status differences and rating chain conflicts
Invite disagreement during the analysis process
56
Disagreement in any decision process stimulates inquiry and analysis. Where lies the challenge
To create constructive conflict while retaining the teamwork and relationships necessary for future decision events
57
What does cognitive conflict focus on in any decision making debate
The issues and ideas at hand
58
What does affective conflict focus on in any decision making debate
Emotional and personal outburst
59
Which type of conflict in a decisions making debate is constructive; Cognitive or affective
Cognitive
60
Why is stimulating cognitive conflict a key aspect of managing the decision process
To advocate positions and analysis
61
Name several ways leaders can help set the example to ensure constructive debate while minimizing conflict
Identify and articulate the mental models they apply
Encourage others to challenge these models
Avoid prematurely selecting courses of action before the debate is finished
Encourage others to make mistakes
62
Name two suggested techniques that can encourage constructive debate and conflict
Assign members to act as adversaries
| Advocate multiple scenarios to address the problem
63
To encourage constructive debate and conflict, dissenters should be assigned to act as Devils advocates T/F
True
64
The inability to decide epilogues many leaders and organizations. This indecision manifests as one of what three harmful org cultures
Culture of No
Culture of Yes
Culture of maybe
65
In which Org Culture do lone dissenters effectively block organizational goals
The culture of No
66
What do decision meetings focus on in the Org culture of No
They focus on dissecting proposals instead of true debate and analysis
67
How are dissenters used in the organization culture of no
In a culture of no, dissenters try to tear down or block proposals and ideas versus critiquing a proposal with the intent of strengthening it
68
In which Org culture do dissenters tend to stay silent, showing tactile endorsement of the proposal without the benefit of analysis and debate
The culture of yes
69
The Org culture of yes develops when leadership devalues critical analysis. how can leaders overcome this cultural tendency
By creating constructive conflict within the decision process to surface an analyze concerns and alternative interpretations of evidence
70
The Org culture of maybe often leads to analysis paralysis. What does this mean
Decision makers constantly delay action because they think more information and analysis will clarify their choice
71
The culture of maybe tends to develop in orgs that face highly ambiguous situations, or in orgs where competing sections/leaders practice conflict avoidance as opposed to open analysis and debate. What should leaders do in this situation
Balance the benefit of gaining more information against the diminishing returns they provide. Intuitive judgment should serve as a cutoff for unnecessary delay
72
When there is an inability to make decisions within an org, why should leaders avoid using shortcuts such as analogies, creating rules of thumb, copying competitors actions
To encourage using critical thinking skills in the decision process
73
The process by which an Org decision is made significantly influences implementation and follow through of the solution T/F
True
74
What is the key aspect to the outcome of critical Org decision
consensus among the team responsible for its enactment
75
In an Orgs decision making process, does consensus mean unanimity
No
76
Procedural ____ provides support to the Orgs decision makers
Fairness
77
How do fair processes benefit the Org decision making process
build consensus
Aid implementation
Demonstrate genuine consideration of alternatives
Allow AMN to rally around the decision with confidence
78
What six thing scan leaders to create an org culture of procedural legitimacy
Provide a process road map at the beginning of the process
Reinforce and demonstrate an open mindset
Engage in active listening and make sure others do too
Separate advocacy from analysis
Explain the decision rationale once made
Express appreciation for participation and alternate inputs
79
Name two perspectives on decision making failure in the critical thinking process
Normal accident theory
| Normalized deviance
80
Which perspective on decision making failure rests upon the assumption that decision failures are unavoidable in any highly complex, high risk org structure
Normal accident
81
Why are high risk systems that are intercity complex and tightly coupled vulnerable to even small mistakes
Because they often go unrecognized or uncorrected an increasingly skew outcomes as they work their way trough the system
82
In Org decision making, which are harder to recognize: Linear or nonlinear processes
Nonlinear
83
Why does leadership stress adherence to standard operating procedures and apply the habits of critical thinking before deviating from normal operations
To anticipate the impact that even minor deviations from the procedure or instructions can have
84
What does normalizing deviance mean with regard to critical thinking and org culture
The gradual acceptance of unexpected events and risk as a normal part of the operating environment. Once viewed as a normal occurrence, we cease to identify causes and find solution, which leads to gradual acceptance of lower standards of performance
85
What classic example does chapter 23 use to explain how the reoccurrence of seemingly minor but unpredictable anomalies in a system lead to catastrophic failure
The challenger space shuttle disaster, where members of the Org cam to accept the erosion of O rings outside acceptable tolerances, despite deviation from their engineering standards
86
Normalization of deviance produces shortcuts in the way orgs act. These shortcuts become normal procedures and deviances are no longer even noticed. how can AMN guarded against this practice
Question the way business is done and dig into any failure to meet the standards that were set for performance
87
when dealing with normal accidents and normalizing deviances, what four things must AMN do to help ensure good decision making
Be aware of the type of Org they operate within
Understand it complex interactions
Consciously identify the close calls and deviances from normal operations
Ensure deviations from standards are analyzed as part of the decision making process to understand how to improve programs and implement new decision
88
Practical drift is similar to normalizing deviance. When does practical drift occur
When sub unit leaders at all levels in large Orgs decide to maximize efficiency be establishing localized rules and procedures that comply with the overall intent of the Org
89
Within an Org culture, practical drift is always problematic T/F
False
90
How can leaders control practical drift within their Orgs
Using their awareness of Org goals and standards to monitor practical drift in their areas of responsibility
Recognizing disciplined initiative, while maintaining standards consistent with outside expectations
91
Ambiguous threats do not trigger Org responses. What may happen when critical thinking is not applied to these types of threats
The recovery window between the emergence of the threat and its occurrence as a catastrophic failure may narrow
92
How can AMN temper practical drift and create a culture where critical thinking is applied to ambiguous threats
Developing processes for identifying and analyzing small problems and failures
Treating them as potential indicators of larger problems
93
What steps should leaders take to minimize the problems associated with practical drift
Empower frontline troops and workers
Flatten hierarchies to reduce information filter
Create and encourage transparency in Org structures and systems
Avoid Band aid approaches to small problems
Create a climate of candid dialogue
Monitor seams where information is handed off between units and orgs
Conduct careful after action reviews focused on process improvement
