WEEK 13: Judgment, Reasoning, and Decisions

Question 1

Bottom-up reasoning.

Answer 1

INDUCTIVE REASONING

Question 2

Top-down Reasoning

Answer 2

DEDUCTIVE REASONING

Question 3

Reasoning that begins from specific observations to broader generalizations and theories. Conclusions are probability, but not definite.

Answer 3

INDUCTIVE REASONING

Question 4

Reasoning that begins from more general to the more specific.

Answer 4

DEDUCTIVE REASONING

Question 5

Deductive Reasoning determines whether a conclusion logically follows from statements called ________.

Answer 5

Premises

Question 6

STRENGTH OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT
How we do the observations about a particular category, representing all the members of that category.

Answer 6

Representativeness of Observation

Question 7

STRENGTH OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT
The conclusion is very strong because of a number of these.

Answer 7

Number of Observations

Question 8

STRENGTH OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT
Stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions.

Answer 8

Quality of Evidence

Question 9

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Rules of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof.

Answer 9

Heuristic

Question 10

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Events that are more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily remembered.

Answer 10

Availability Heuristic

Question 11

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Probability that A is a member of class B is determined by how well properties of A resemble properties usually associated with B.

Answer 11

Representativeness Heuristic

Question 12

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Strong correlation between two events appears to exist, but doesn’t.

Answer 12

Illusory Correlation

Question 13

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Relative proportions of different classes in the population.

Answer 13

Base Rate

Question 14

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Probability of conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of single constituents.

Answer 14

Conjunction Rule

Question 15

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypothesis in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitude.
This is a type of conformation bias

Answer 15

Myside Bias

Question 16

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Selectively looking for information that conforms to a hypothesis and overlooking information that argues against it.

Answer 16

Confirmation Bias

Question 17

POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
The larger the number of individuals drawn from a population, the more representative the group will be of the entire population.

Answer 17

Law of Large Numbers

Question 18

ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Easily remembered event is less probable

Answer 18

Availability Heuristic

Question 19

ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: There is no correlation, or it is weaker than it appears to be.

Answer 19

Illusory Correlation

Question 20

ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Presence of similar properties doesn’t predict membership in Class B.

Answer 20

Representativeness Heuristic

Question 21

ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Base rate information is not taken into account

Answer 21

Base Rate

Question 22

ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Higher probability is assigned to the conjunction.

Answer 22

Conjunction Rule

Question 23

ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: It is assumed that a small number of individuals accurately represent the entire population.

Answer 23

Law of Large Numbers

Question 24

ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: People let their own opinions and attitudes influence how they evaluate evidence needed to make decisions.

Answer 24

Myside Bias

Question 25

**ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS** **Error:** There is a narrow focus only on confirming information.

Answer 25

Confirmation Bias

Question 26

The basis of deductive reasoning, introduced by Aristotle.

Answer 26

Syllogism

Question 27

Syllogism consists of two premises followed by a third statement called the....?

Answer 27

Conclusion

Question 28

**SYLLOGISM** Premises and conclusions are statements that begin with **ALL**, **NO**, or **SOME**.

Answer 28

Categorical Syllogism

Question 29

**SYLLOGISM** First premise has the form **IF... THEN**. Common in everyday life.

Answer 29

Conditional Syllogism

Question 30

**TRUE OR FALSE** Syllogism is **valid** when the form of the syllogism indicates that its conclusion follows logically from its two premises.

Answer 30

**TRUE**

Question 31

The tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable.

Answer 31

Belief Bias

Question 32

Method of determining whether a syllogism is valid or invalid.

Answer 32

Mental Model Approach

Question 33

A specific situation represented in a person's mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.

Answer 33

Mental Model

Question 34

A principle that states that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule.

Answer 34

Falsification Principle

Question 35

**DECISION MAKING** Decision making is based on the idea that people are basically rational, so when they have all of the relevant information - they will make decisions that result in outcomes that are in their best interest.

Answer 35

Utility Approach

Question 36

**DECISION MAKING** _______ can affect decisions, as people are not always accurate in predicting their ____ -- leading to risk aversion as predicted by the prospect theory.

Answer 36

Emotions

Question 37

**DECISION MAKING** Depend on the context in which they are made, also depends on how choices are presented.

Answer 37

Decisions

Question 38

**DECISION MAKING** When a choice is framed in **terms of gains**, people tend to use a _____ ________ ________.

Answer 38

Risk Aversion Strategy

Question 39

**DECISION MAKING** When a choice is framed in **terms of losses**, people tend to use a ____-_______ _______.

Answer 39

Risk-taking Strategy

Question 40

Studies decision making by combining approaches from Psychology, Neuroscience and Economics.

Answer 40

Neoroeconomics

Question 41

People's emotions can interfere with their ability to make ________ _______.

Answer 41

Rational Decisions

Question 42

In a dual system approach, there are two mental systems. Between **Systems 1 and 2**,which one is intuitive, fast, non-conscious and automatic and which one takes over when slower or more thoughtful thinking is necessary?

Answer 42

**SYSTEM 1**: Intuitive, fast, non-conscious and automatic **SYSTEM 2:** Slower, more thoughtful thinking.