Flashcards in Lecture for Chapter 11 Deck (89):
Does human reasoning follow logic?
Humans are an illogical race. We are complex involving the unconscious and emotions.
What would idealized reasoning look like?
Formal logic, normative vs descriptive reality. People don't use ideal reasoning.
For judgement involving the frequency of events or probability _______ is crucial.
People use the availability heuristic to judge ________. If something is readily available it is likely more common.
The effect of memory being better for things that stand out and are distinct, isolated, unique or bizarre is called _________.
The von Restorff effect
__________ can be useful but it is not always accurate. The media underreport some types of deaths and over report other types this results in people overestimating the _________ of murders b/c they are talked about
The availability heuristic
When looking for evidence we look at event _______ by using the availability heuristic. What is available is influenced by __________
The difficulty people have putting aside their original estimates is the result of _______
anchoring and adjustment
In a factorial math question pple use the first number as an anchor. So they estimate _______ for 1x2x3x4... than for 9x8x7x6...
When pple asked whether something was shorter or smaller than a range followed by having to estimate the exact length. The _____ affect their estimate. This is an example of ________
When showing houses the initial impression can drive up the price of the whole rest of the house. This is called_____
The assumption of homogeneity assumes that each member of a category is representative of that category. This is called __________
The representative heuristic
An example of the representative heuristic is_________
The use of prototypical examples rather than probability as a basis of judgement is called_____________
When told that Tom enjoys poetry and reading followed by the question: Is Tom more likely to be a professor or a Truck Driver,
What will pple choose, why and why is it probably inaccurate?
pple will choose professor b/c the description is representative of a professor. This is probably inaccurate based on the fact that there are many more truck drivers than professors therefore probability wise it is more likely he is a truck driver
Describe the Sunk Cost Fallacy:
Pple will generally go to a more expensive concert rather than a cheap one they might enjoy more b/c they've already put money into it.
If Sally puts $2 into the pop machine and no money comes out, theoretically what should she logically do, what is she likely to do?
Theoretically she shouldn't put anymore money in, following the sunk cost fallacy it is likely she will put more money in b/c she already invested $2
Another name for the sunk cost fallacy is ___________
The concord fallacy
The belief that prior outomes of a probabilistic event impact the future outcome in the short run is called_____________
The gamblers fallacy
Billy believes that he shouldn't fly on the airline with the best safety record b/c it is due for a crash. Billy is following the _____________
What is the law of large #s?
Things do tend to even out over many trials but this effect doesn't extend to small samples.
Reasoning from a single case, the "man who" arguement is based on the assumption of ____________.
Ruth is debating buying an iphone, she read many reviews and saw that they are the highest rated phone for her needs. On her way to the store to buy it her daughter tells her that someone she knows just bought one and it stopped working the next day? If Ruth buys the phone anyway she is overcoming______________.
The representative heuristic and "man who" argument. Ruth reasoned correctly that just b/c one case was like that doesn't mean that every member of that category is like that. She chose to use statistical probability rather than one persons experience
After the fact people think that they would have know something before the fact when really they wouldn't, this is ____________
Describe the medical practitioner experiment showing hindsight bias:
Doctors were split into groups and either told the diagnosis/ or not. Those told the diagnoses were told to ignore it while assigning probabilites of a diagnoses to a patient's case file.
The results of the medical practitioner experiment showed that doctors who knew the diagnosis assigned probabilities of the diagnoses ____ times higher than those who didn't. This is an example of ___________
Describe the better than average effect:
pple on average, think they are better than average
What group of people is an exception to the the better than average effect?
The clinically depressed don't show this effect and are the most accurately calibrated
____________ is crucial for reasoning whether something has an effect or not, and whether it is possible to make decision about something based on another factor.
T or F: People are objective when it comes to covariation, and the Rorchach test is an example of this
False - people project there prior theories into data. Given the Rochach test people believed more homosexuals saw butts even though this was impossible through random assignments of drawings to pple
When a person has no prior expectations or beliefs about data being judged they have ________ and ________ in estimates. When the correlation is less strong estimates are _____. The results are _________. The graph looks ______ like an objective correlation.
systematic and conservative
When participants have prior expectations or beliefs about the thing being judged, estimates are ____________ and ___________. In this type of ___________ estimates, estimates are all on the ______ side of the objective curve.
inaccurate and variable
What two techniques do people use to detect covariation?
1) confirmation bias
2) Memory schemata
Describe confirmation bias:
Pple only look at a subset of evidence. They pay attention to evidence hat confirms their belief and ignore counter examples.
Describe Memory schemata:
A schemata helps you remember what fits within your prior beliefs. Counter examples that don't fit are forgotten.
One fundemental statistic property of the universe that pple fail to account for is __________. This means that when you get an extreme sample, the next example is likely to be closer to average.
Regression towards the mean.
________ is responsible for the sports illustrated cover curse.
Regression towards the mean
T or F: Regression towards the mean can be seen based on individuals and individual events
False it refers to groups
What is a base rate?
The actual number that exists in the world. People don't normally ask "out of how many"
When given a choice pple tend to _________ representativeness and _______ baserates.
People understand base rates better if they are given in the form of _________.
T or F: People can use base rates
True - if just given a base rate they will use it. However if given both diagnostic info and baserates pple will use the diagnostic info (ex. categories, stereotypes and heuristics)
Describe the dual system hypothesis:
Two systems are used for judgments - system 1 is based on heuristics, system 2 is less biased but more effortful. Something must trigger system 2.
What are possible ways of triggering system 2?
-triggering statistical knowledge
The testing and adjusting of our beliefs is otherwise known as _______
The logical ideal of reasoning uses logic, rational thinking and _______. What people actually use is biases, _______, errors, irrational thinking and _______reasoning.
T or F: Both novices and experts are more confident in their judgements then is justifiable
True -this is overconfidence
Define belief perseverence:
We don't want to let go of beliefs, even in the face of strong evidence.
When pple test hypothesis by choosing tests that confirm rather than disconfirm them they are using ___________bias. This is seen in the _____________
watson's four card task
A _________________ is a form of deductive reasoning consisting of a major premise a minor premise and a conclusion. For example:
All humans are moral - I am human- therefore I am moral
is an example of a valid premise
A syllogism that begins with an if-then structure is called a __________. There are two types of these syllogisms _______ and _________.
Modus ponens and modus tollens
The type of syllogism that is affirming the antecedent is called_________
ex. If P (antecedent), then Q (consequence)
The type of syllogism that is denying the consequent is called __________.
ex. If P (antecedent), then Q (consequent)
Therefore not Q
Modus Ponens (affirming the antecedent) and Modus Tonens (denying the consequent) are both valid. Invalid versions include denying the antecedent, this error is called ___________ and affirming the consequence, called an ____________ error. People often assume these conditional syllogisms are _________ when they aren't.
Describe Watson's Four card task:
People must test the statement " if a card has a vowel on one side it must have an even number on the other side" - They are shown four cards A 6 J 7 - but can only flip two.
A 6 J 7 -Only ___% of pple correctly complete Watson's four card task. Most people display confirmation bias and pick _____ and ______. They successfully flip ___ to affirm the antecedent and complete the ________ aspect but fail to flip _____ to deny the consequent and show _________ aspect of the logic.
A and 6
A - Modus Ponens
7 - Modus Tolens
T or F: people are good at solving categorical and conditional syllogisms
What are three types of errors people make when solving syllogisms?
1) Belief bias
2) Atmosphere errors
3) Conversion errors
If the premise uses the word " all " pple are more likely to accept a conclusion using the word all. This is an example of _________.
Atmosphere errors - the conclusion seems more appropriate given the context
_________ is the fact that if people believe the conclusion they tend to think that the argument is more valid and vice versa
When people treat all As are Bs as meaning all Bs are As or some As are Bs as meaning some Bs are As, this is an example of a _____________
People do slightly better on syllogisms when they are using __________. This is due to _______________ schemata, rather than if-then rules this type of schemata uses permissions and cause and effect. The effectiveness of this schemata can be seen in peoples improvements in Watson's four card task when it is given in the form of _________.
Logic problems are _________ problems and people reason using either a necessity or sufficiency interpretation can lead to illogical reasoning.
T or F: Formal training in logic helps to improve logical thinking
False - Training in use of reasoning schemata can help.
Training in the use of reasoning schemata can help solve logic problems b/c hey can help you learn to interpret whether it is a ________ vs_______problem and help trigger examples of _______ examples through pragmatic reasoning schema that help you deal with ________ideas
necessity vs sufficiency
concrete familiar examples
Describe utility theory:
Every choice has costs and benefits when making a decision we weigh the costs and benefits and pick the option that minimizes costs and maximizes benefits, it is very objective way of making decisions
What are problems and complications with utility theory?
1) Subjective utility
3) the certainty effect
4) non-transitive relationships
5) mental accounting
T or F: Sometimes costs and benefits are hard to compare
_________ refers to the value something has for you. Things can also have negative value, this is called _________
The possibility that things could change in the future changing valuess is the complication called ________
The certainty effect is the idea that people _________, this belief violates utility theory all the time
Non-transitive relationships are _______ according to utility theory. Yet we see these circular relationships all the time ex. Prefer large room to cheap, close to school to large, cheap to close to school
_______________is the idea that Psychological accounting isn't the same as dollar value. For ex. someone might drive across town for $20 off $100 but not for $20 off $10 000.
What is the calculation for expected utility?
Expected utility= (probability of outcome) x (utility of outcome)
The fact that people are more likely to want $20 now vs $25 in two weeks but are more likely to want $25 in 54 weeks vs $20 in 52 weeks, shows that _________ also works for delayed gratification
T or F: People are utility maximizers
Describe the effect of framing effects:
people flip flop b/w decision producing contradictions when different framing effects are used.
When framing effects deal with possible losses, decisions are ______. When framing effects deal with possible gains decisions are________.
The idea that values are assigned to gains and losses and that choice varies by framing of the problem is called __________. This theory is evidence for _________.
Loss aversions is the idea that when given a choice between_______ and __________. People prefer to __________.
According to utility theory is ________ make sense to pay attention to sunk costs but ________.
__________reasoning is the idea that you don't want to give up something you already have.
Lost of our decisions don't have to do with "rational assessment or how to maximize utility theory instead we make ____________
Describe Regret theory:
Avoiding regret is a big motivator. we overestimate what we will feel when forcasting our emotions. We like things to get better over time.
T or F: People prefer keeping their hand immersed in super cold water 4 degrees for 60sec and fairly cold water 5 degrees for 30sec rather than just 60sec of super cold 4 degree water.
True- this is part of regret theory
If people are given $10 to divide with a partner and if both agree they get to keep the money, rationally the partner should accept _________ but people tend to divide the money ___________.
anything more than zero
Often peoples decisions are based on _______ as opposed to rationality
Sometimes it is foolish to seek the optimal decision because it __________ then it is worth. It is sensible to compromise and sacrifice optimal decisions for more _______decisions