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Flashcards in week 7 Deck (19):

decision making

- identifying and choosing alternative solutions that lead to an end desired result


Simon's normative models

bounded rationality
-> constraints that restrict rational desicion making

-> satisficing
-> choosing a sloution that meets a minimum standard of acceptance


the optimizing model

- need for a decision
-> whats important
-> alternatives
-> assess them
-> choose the best



- rule of thumb
-> people use to make decisions and judgements quickly and efficiently

-> mental shortcuts
-> coming to a conclusion or decision


decision making biases

- status quo bias

-> anchoring bias

- escalation of commitment

-> confirmation bias

-> framing bias


- status quo bias

--> refers to a preference for the current state of affairs
--> current baseline is taken as a reference point, and any change from that is perceived as a loss

decision making biases


-> anchoring bias

--> occurs when decision makers are influenced by the first information received about a decision

decision making biases


- escalation of commitment

--> refers to the tendency to stick to an ineffective course of action even when it is unlikely that the bad situation can be reversed

decision making biases


confirmation bias

- refers to seeking or attending more to information that supports your initial idea, belief or attitude


framing bias

-> refers to the tendency to consider risks about gains differently than risks pertaining to losses


overconfidence bias

-> tendency to be overconfident about estimates or forecasts


estimating / forecasting biases

-> availability heuristic is tendency to base decisions on information that is readily available in memory


forecasting (dawes)

- intuitive judgement never beats a weighted regression


two disciplines

-> gestalt
--> a person has a problem
--> has a goal and reaquires thought

-> information processing theory
--> incremental steps to be followed after a particular problem re-presentation was generated


problem solving as search

- problem space
-> problem solver's internal representation of a problem

- problem states
-> states of knowledge

- operators
-> the means of moving from one state to another


two types of heuristics

- hill climbing
-> always opt for a step that would move him or her higher
-> local considerations

- means end analysis
-> takes into account the bigger picture
-> reduce the difference between the current goal state


creating problem solving model

- exploring the challenge
-> people are supposed to identify, clarify, and overwise clearly define the problem to be confronted

- idea finding or idea generation
-> generate ideas for possible solutions to problems as it has been defined or represented

- preparing for action
-> choose one of the possibilities produced during idea generation and refine it



- production of high quality, original and elegant solutions to problems
- more than idea creation

- a form of performance
- finding and solving problems and offering new solutions
- iterative process


economic models of decision making - racial economic model

- decision making is and should be a rational process

- sequence of steps that enhance probability of attaining a desired outcome