Flashcards in Decision Making Deck (21):
what are the underlying assumptions of the rational decision making model?
-we are robots --> don't change preferences, don't have social life, don't get tired, etc.
-bounded by rationality
-we are continually satisficing
describe how we are bounded by rationality and how it affects the rational decision making model
-time and cost constraints
-human limitations in performing calculations
how does "satisfycing" relate to the rational decision making model?
-search for adequate or acceptable solutions
-don't optimize in decision-making process
what are the two decision-making models?
___: how we actually act, based on observations of individuals and groups, Bounded Rational Model
descriptive decision making
___: how we "should" act, based on particular assumptions and values, Rational Model
prescriptive decision making
why don't we seek out all info?
-value of info
what are heuristics?
simplifying strategies that help us make good decisions with limited resources and constrained cognitive skills
___ ____: people react to a particular choice differently depending on how it's presented (ex. as loss or gain)
what are the three heuristics?
2. anchoring and adjustment
describe the availability heuristic
judgement of the probability, frequency, or likely causes of an event is influenced by the degree to which info is readily available
-don't search out all relevant info,
-familiar, recent, vivid info used
-effectiveness of a search set
describe the anchoring and adjustment heuristic
making estimates from an initial value and make insufficient adjustments from that anchor
describe representativeness as a heuristic
tendency to assess the probability or likelihood of an event based on similarity of even to stereotype of a set of occurrences
- we respond to cues or irrelevant info
-ignore statistical info
what are potential strengths of teams?
-increased diversity of views
-more complete info and knowledge
-higher quality of decisions
-increased acceptance of solution
what are weaknesses of teams?
-discussion can be dominated by 1 or a few members
-decisions suffer from ambiguous responsibility
-mode of thinking that people engage in when they're deeply involved in cohesive in-group
-members strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action
-strong "we-feeling" of solidarity
-independent, critical thinking doesn't occur
what are remedies for Groupthink? (9)
1. assign and encourage the role of critical evaluator in each group member
2. leaders avoid stating preferences
3. use multiple groups to work on same questions
4. protect security but seek outside insight
5. invite outside expert's to challenge views
6. assign "Devil's advocate"
7. take time to address how enemies might respond
8. break up into small groups to evaluate policy alternatives
9. hold second-guess meetings
why does the Groupthink process lead to defective decision-making?
-incomplete survey of alternatives
-incomplete survey of goals
-failure to examine risk of preferred choice
-failure to reappraise alternatives
-failure to work out contingency plans
-selective bias in processing info at hand
what is the Perception of Selves in Groupthink?
-inherent morality of team
-illusion of invulnerability
-illusion of unanimity
what is the Perception of Others in Groupthink?
-stereotypes of other groups