Deductive Reasoning Decision Making (chpt.12) Flashcards Preview

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Flashcards in Deductive Reasoning Decision Making (chpt.12) Deck (45):
1

Deductive Reasoning

specif premises that are true and you need to judge whether those premises allow you to draw a particular conclusion based on the principles of logic

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Conditioning reasoning task or propositional task

describes the relationship between condition

3

Syllogism

consists of two statements that we must assume to be true, plus a conclusion

4

Propositional calculus

which is a system for categorizing the four kinds of reasoning used in analyzing propositions or statements

5

Antecedent

refers to the first proposition or statement the antecedent is contained in the "if part of the sentence

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Consequent

refers to the proposition that comes second it is the consequence

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Affirming the antecedent

means that you say that the "if" part of the sentence is true

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Affirming the consequent

means that you say that the "then" part of the sentence is true

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Denying the antecedent

means that you say that the "if" part of the sentence is false

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Denying the consequent

means that you say that the "then" part of the sentence is false

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Heuristic

a general strategy that usually works well rules of thumb that are usually successful and comparatively quick

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Type 1 processing

is fast and automatic it requires little conscious attention we use type 1 processing during depth perception, recognition of facial expression, and automatic stereotyping

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Type 2 processing

is relatively slow and controlled. It requires focused attention and it is typically more accurate

14

Belief-bias effect

occurs in reasoning when people make judgement based on prior beliefs and general knowledge rather than on the rules of logic

when real world beliefs impair the use of logic. We rely too heavily on our established beliefs

ex.if a teddy bear it is not a lion
teddy bears are not dangerous
therefore lions are dangerous

15

Confirmation Bias

they would rather try to conform or support a hypothesis than try to disprove. We prefer to confirm a current hypothesis rather than to reject it

people try to confirm a hypothesis and stop once they have a single confirming case tested by the watson selection task

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Decision making

you must assess available information and choose among two or more alternatives

Psychological interest in decision making grew out of studies of decisions about gains and losses gamblers fallacy a chance outcome becomes more probable over time

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Representative

A sample looks representative if it is similar in important characteristics to the population from which it was selected

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Small sample fallacy

because they assume that a small sample will be representative of the population from which it is selected

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Base rate

or how often the item occurs in the population

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Base rate fallacy

paying too little attention to important information about base rate

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Conjunction rule

the probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events

Conjuction fallacy Linda is single, outspoken, bright, and was concerned wit social justice and an antinuclear activist n college

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Availability heuristic

when you estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples of something

Using ease of thought to decide what facts are true

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Recognition Heuristic

Typically operates when you must compare teh raltive frequency of two categories ; if you recognize one category, but not the other, you conclude that the recognized category has the higher frequency

24

Illusory Correlation

occurs when people believe that two variables are statistically related, even through there is no actual evidence for this relationship. We rely strongly on well known cell in a 2x2 data matrix and we fail to seek information about the other three cells

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Social Cognition Approach

stereotypes can be traced to our normal cognitive processes.

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Creativity

is a kind of problem solving finding solutions that are unusual and useful intelligence and creativity

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Divergent production

how many words can you make with the letters "stramer" in a minute, only small correlations between different measures of divergent production

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Remote associate test

small correlations with rated creativity
ex. "ice"- cream, skate, water

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Influences on creativity

Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic motivation people are more creative if intrinsically motivated show less creativity if extrinsically motivated offered reward competing

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Induction

is less sure but more like real life

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Conditional reasoning

condition=situation condition X, what can we expect? this is a deductive method

if p then q
if it rains well get wet

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Why do people think inference 3 and 4 are valid

difficulties in abstractions valid or not accuracy with these is better if diagrams are used

33

Watson Task Situated Cognition

The watson task is much easier to solve with socially relevant situations

if a person is drinking beer he or she must be at least 19 choices person drinking beer, person drinking coke person who is 16,person whois 22 73% correctly chose the beer drinker and the 16 year old this shows situated cognition

34

Anchoring and adjustment heurtistic

also known as the anchoring effect we begin with a first approximation which serves as an anchor then we make adjustments to that number based on additional information

35

Confidence Interval

is the range within which we expect a number to fall a certain percentage of the time

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Default Hueristic

if there us a standard option which happens if people do nothing then people will choose it

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Framing effect

demonstrates that the outcome of your decision can be influenced by two factors

1) the background context of the choice and
2) the way in which a question is worded or framed

38

Overconfidence

means that your confidence judgements are higher than they should be, based on your actual performance on to the task

39

Planning Fallacy

people typically underestimate the amount of time or money required to complete a project they also estimate that the task will be relatively easy to complete

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My side bias

describes the overconfidence that your own view is correct in a confrontational situation

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Hindsight

refers to our judgements about events that already happened in the past

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Hindsight Bias

occurs when an event has happened and we say that the event had been inevitable we had actually known it all along

Once something occurs people often think they kew it all along the reason't that contribute to overconfidence

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Maximizers

are people who have a maximizing decision making style they tend to examine as man options as possible

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Sacrificers

are people who have a satisfying decision making style they tend to settle for something that is satisfactory

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Adjustment and Anchoring Heuristic

anchor something with a number between two numbers adjustment away from one number