Global quick notes IIII Flashcards
(40 cards)
4
Kantian Triangle of Peace
- Tony Blair, like Gladstone, stressed that human rights are central in a globalized world.
Robin Cook described this as an “ethical foreign policy”.
- The nation-state remains vital despite globalization, shown by:
Donald Trump’s election,
Brexit,
Nationalist leaders: Putin (Russia), Xi Jinping (China), Recep Erdoğan (Turkey).
- Quote: “A conquering army on the border will not be stopped by eloquence.” – Otto von Bismarck (1815–1898)
- Quote: “What is possible for a state depends on its resources, geographic position and determination…” – Henry Kissinger
4
Economic Ties (Globalisation)
- Apple would be the 55th richest country in the world—its decisions affect national economies.
- Thomas Friedman: the world is becoming “flatter” – globalisation is levelling the playing field between economies.
- NICs (Newly Industrialised Countries) benefiting from globalisation:
China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, East Asian Tigers.
- Evidence of benefits:
Rising GDP per capita in integrated economies.
Sub-Saharan Africa shows stagnation when refusing integration.
TNCs (e.g., Nike in Vietnam) provide:
Jobs, better wages, training, investment in skills, modern tech.
Alliances with developing world governments.
Trickle-down economics may have failed, but globalists argue poverty still decreases.
2
IGOs & Regional Integration
- Treaty of Lisbon (2009):
European Charter of Fundamental Rights now legally binding.
ECB limits fiscal policies of Eurozone states.
Schengen Agreement allows passport-free travel in much of EU.
- Other regional trade groups limiting sovereignty:
Mercosur, USMCA, ASEAN.
China:
Member of:
UNSC (permanent), WTO, G20, Copenhagen climate talks (2009).
Opposes Western interventions in sovereign states (often with Russia).
6
Military & Strategic Power
- World’s largest army
- Nuclear capabilities: ICBMs, SLBMs, bombers
- Space power:
Satellite launches
Manned spaceflight
Moon probe (2009)
- Defence budget: ~10% annual growth, now 2nd to US
~2% of GDP
- UN Peacekeeping:
500 troops to Mali (2013), including combat units
- Anti-US strategy:
Anti-satellite missile test (2007)
Jamming tech, cyber-espionage (massive scale)
Termed “asymmetric superpower” – Mark Leonard
Challenge to US dominance in Asia (e.g. Taiwan)
5
Challenges to the Kantian Triangle / Realist Perspectives
- Global Conflicts and Failed States
DRC – often called the world’s failed state. - Somalia (since 1991), Libya (since 2011) – ravaged by civil war and terrorism.
- Ethnic/nationalist conflicts post-Cold War:
Yugoslavia, Georgia, Chechnya.
- Russia opposes NATO expansion, Western influence in Georgia and Ukraine.
- War on Terror after 9/11 triggered new global conflicts.
4
US Power Limitations
- After Syria’s 2013 Ghouta massacre, Obama failed to get support for intervention – shows US war fatigue after Iraq and Afghanistan.
- Critics: US “red lines” now lack credibility.
- Defiant small powers:
Iran, North Korea (nuclear programs). - Liberals argue “balance of terror” (Cold War MAD) is unstable.
Robert McNamara: “We lucked out” (re: Cuban Missile Crisis).
Disarmament + IGOs preferred for peace.
8
China as a Rising Superpower
🏗️ Economic Power
- World’s largest population: 1.34 billion
- Biggest energy user (2010) – IAEA
- Use of steel = 2× USA
World leader in manufacturing, car and PC production - Hong Kong = global financial centre
- GDP milestones:
Overtook Germany (2007)
Overtook Japan (2010)
Estimated to overtake US in PPP terms
- PetroChina = world’s largest firm (2009)
- $586 billion stimulus package (2008) – largest in the world
- G20 London Summit (2009) – central player (Obama–Hu Jintao G2)
4
Russia’s Limitations
- Economy reliant on energy exports.
- GDP = lowest of BRICs; only ¼ of China’s and less than Brazil’s.
- Lacks soft power; no global ideological appeal unlike USSR.
- Still dependent on Western markets despite pivot to Asia.
5
Russia’s Global Power Status
Regional Influence:
- Defends post-Soviet sphere; punished Ukraine in 2006 with gas supply cuts.
- Pro-Russian Ukrainian govt in 2010 received a gas price cut.
- 2008 Georgia war: humiliated Georgia, invaded, and took South Ossetia.
- Crimea annexation (2014) and destabilisation of Eastern Ukraine demonstrates military assertiveness.
- Proposed Eurasian Union to increase regional dominance.
5
Structural Power & Global Influence
- UNSC Permanent Member – vetoes Western actions
- WTO member, essential at G20 and climate talks
- 2007: Became largest emitter of greenhouse gases
Copenhagen Conference (2009):
Opposed binding emission targets
Signed Copenhagen Accord with US
- Global resource diplomacy:
Deals with Sudan, Myanmar, Iran, Venezuela
Now Latin America’s 2nd biggest trading partner
- In Africa:
Trade up 10× since 2001
Now Africa’s top trading partner
Strong ties with Sudan, Zimbabwe, Zambia
3
Russia’s Global Power Status
Structural Power:
- Inherits USSR’s permanent seat on UNSC.
- Formerly in G8, now part of G20 and BRICS.
- Opposed US-led initiatives:
Rejected 2003 Iraq War UN resolutions.
Blocked action against Syria (2011–13).
In 2013, Putin headed off Obama’s planned Syria strike by brokering a deal for Syria to give up chemical weapons.
3
Military and Strategic Capabilities
Nuclear Arsenal: Only comparable stockpile to the US.
- Negotiated New START Treaty (2010) as an equal partner.
- Resumed nuclear bomber patrols.
- Left Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty in response to US missile defence plans.
3
Strategic Partnerships:
- Stronger ties with China, e.g., Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
- Joint military exercises.
- Sells weapons/nuclear tech to Syria, Iran.
4
China’s International Role and Development
- One-party state; tight control over opposition and information.
- Example: Crackdown after Arab Spring (2011), arrest of Ai WeiWei.
- Angrily rejected awarding of Nobel Peace Prize (2010) to Liu Xiaobo.
- Corruption and inequality rising; middle class dissatisfaction growing.
Urban workforce increasingly restive.
4
Assertiveness Rising:
- Largest P5 contributor to UN peacekeeping (e.g., 500 troops to Mali in 2013).
- 2007 anti-satellite missile test; investment in cyber and jamming tech.
- Accused by US of massive cyber espionage.
- Seen as an “asymmetric superpower” (Mark Leonard).
4
Military Modernisation:
- Spending rising ~10%/year; still around 2% of GDP.
- World’s largest army.
- Space programme: satellite and moon probe (2009).
- Capable of deploying forces regionally.
6
China’s Global Economic Influence
- Largest population: 1.34bn.
- Surpassed Germany in GDP (2007), Japan (2010), possibly US in PPP terms.
- PetroChina = world’s largest firm (2009).
- Stimulus (2008): $586 billion – world’s largest.
- Key G20 player (e.g., London 2009 Summit, bilateral G2 with Obama).
Major financial centre: Hong Kong. - World’s biggest steel user, energy consumer (2010, IAEA).
Leading producer of cars and PCs.
5
India’s Emergence
- Fast-growing economy.
- Nuclear weapons and space programme.
- Member of BRICS and G20.
- Likely future UNSC seat.
- Democratic rise less threatening than China’s.
4
Global Diplomacy and Environment
- Member of WTO, UNSC (P5), and influential at G20 and Copenhagen 2009.
- 2007: Became largest CO₂ emitter; signed Copenhagen Accord.
Signed Paris Climate Accord, leads climate talks with US and others.
- Promotes multipolarity, rejects US hegemony.
Emphasises non-intervention and sovereignty; admired by countries like Sudan, Venezuela, Iran, Myanmar.
- China is Africa’s largest trading partner – trade increased 10x since 2001.
Also Latin America’s #2 trading partner.
3
IGOs and Global Governance
But IGOs are often deadlocked:
- Doha WTO Round collapsed.
- Copenhagen Accord (2009) had no binding targets.
- Durban 2011 agreement still aspirational.
4
IGOs and Global Governance
IGOs facilitate cooperation:
- G8 Gleneagles 2005 – poverty.
- G20 London 2009 – financial crisis.
- Durban 2011 – towards 2015 climate agreement.
- Treaties: NPT, CTBT, financial and policing collaboration.
3
UN Effectiveness and Limitations
- UNSC often divided:
Kosovo (1999), Iraq (2003), Georgia (2008), Syria (2011–13) – all UNSC deadlock.
UN must respect national sovereignty (UN Charter).
Example: Darfur – UN peacekeepers blocked by Sudan; China blocked sanctions due to economic ties.
- Failures:
Bosnia: Srebrenica massacre under UNPROFOR’s watch.
Somalia, Croatia, Sierra Leone – UN forces ineffective or humiliated.
- Successes:
Eritrea-Ethiopia (2000) – UN observers monitored ceasefire.
South Lebanon (2006) – peace agreement enforced.
East Timor (1999) – successful Chapter VII operation by Australia.
Gulf War (1991) – US-led expulsion of Iraq from Kuwait.
4
IMF & World Bank: Bias Toward the Global North
- Main Idea: These institutions are dominated by the North, especially the US and Europe, with emerging economies underrepresented.
- Analysis: The North’s control is institutionalized through weighted voting systems and leadership appointments.
- Evaluation: Suggests a lack of legitimacy and fairness in global economic governance.
- Counterargument: Some reforms to voting weights have occurred post-2008, though they remain limited.
3
Responsibility to Protect (R2P):
- Endorsed by UNGA (2005), UNSC (2006).
- Not enforced in Darfur or Syria.
- Used in Libya (2011), but unlikely to be replicated due to Russia/China veto power and post-Iraq caution.
